Believe the jobs report or Apple?
Surprising strength in employment seems not to fit with fundamental economic weakness. The iPhone maker may be a clearer sign of what lies ahead for US companies.
The employment data released on Oct. 5 certainly raised some eyebrows. First off, the number of jobs created in September was almost exactly as expected, at 114,000, while the August number was revised up by better than 40,000 jobs.
But the big news was that somehow the unemployment rate dropped from 8.1% to 7.8% (expectations had been that it might tick up to 8.2%).
There appears to have been some sort of, shall we say, aberration in the data, as the household survey suggests that 873,000 jobs were added last month, an annualized rate of 10.5 million.
(That survey is used to calculate the unemployment rate, while the number of jobs created that gets focused on every month is a function of the establishment survey. So if you're scratching your head at how headline job growth of 114,000 generated a sizable drop in the headline unemployment rate, now you know.)
In addition to the squirrelliness of that giant number (the aforementioned 873,000), it seems an enormous amount (581,000) were part-time jobs of some sort.
Joan McCullough, of East Shore Partners, in a letter to clients, said she thought something smelled fishy. When she talked to the Bureau of Labor Statistics about it, all the contact there could say was that they had received a number of phone calls, and the data were "suspicious," but other than that they couldn't really comment on it.
I will leave it to the tinfoil hat crowd (or former General Electric (GE) CEO Jack Welch) to discover the "truth." (Read about Welch's controversial Tweet on the subject here. But there is probably no one who doesn't think that the economic data are massaged. So whether this was pure statistical nonsense or some government employee had an agenda, I don't know.
But I will say that I would be willing to bet a serious amount of money that there were not 873,000 jobs created in the month of September, and I would expect that number to be revised away prospectively.
Riding the Apple-coaster
Turning from the macro to the micro, after another huge run this year, Apple (AAPL) has been a real drag on the Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) of late. The stock looks sick from a technical standpoint, though I would be the first to admit that I am an amateur technician at best.
I have no dog in this hunt, since I have no position in Apple, long or short. The reason I bring it up is because Apple is a very important holding in so many portfolios, and has a huge chunk of mindshare when it comes to investor psychology. For those who aren't involved I think it is an interesting example of what tops often look like. (I am assuming that Apple is making a top, though I don't have any short position, given that I don't have a strong case for suggesting that it may have peaked.)
There is no doubt that there is tremendous bullishness (and indeed, near euphoria) about Apple. Analysts have even gone so far this year as to suggest the company would soon get to a $1 trillion market capitalization. (This is something I find rather implausible, given the amount of revenue and continuing margins required to justify such a valuation).
However, one thing that the bulls tend to overlook is that the law of large numbers is in operation here, as is consumer fickleness. Tremendous numbers of extraordinarily successful products have been responsible for a large part of Apple's past growth and current revenues. To maintain its trajectory, that past success must not only be replicated, but topped, which is a very tall order.
Maybe its hype-er drive malfunctioned
The other thing that strikes me as a bit odd is that after Apple lowered its guidance for this quarter, and given the hype over its new phone, one would have thought people would be piling into it, knowing it would easily beat that guidance number.
Thus I find its recent weakness to be a potentially interesting market barometer. October generically causes people angst -- though I am not a big believer in the idea that this month automatically equals lower stock prices -- and the stock market has absorbed a fair amount of bad news, which hasn't mattered. But if bad news does start to matter, then the sledding may get a little rougher quickly.
At the time of publication, Bill Fleckenstein did not own or control shares of any company mentioned in this column.
Trust me, the job numbers will be revised downwards in a Labor Department revision after the last presidential debate. Then they will say it was a math mistake because there were inadequate people doing the counts because the Republicans cut back the budget..
The truth will come out soon about the Libyan embassy security failures. It was a series of screw-ups starting at the White House and going downwards.
Lets make Obama accountable for his lying and incompetancy by voiting out Obama-Biden ticket
Apple is the stock of the decade. It has been nothing but a moneymaker. If Apple is showing any sign of weakness then that tells me that the whole stock market is ready to dive. The unemployment .... diddled in our face at 7.8% is pure crap. It's more like 12 - 15% and we all know it ... only some of us are willing to admit the crap the is being flung around the Obama camp.
Things are a mess and since Obama has been the pres for the last 4 years and since things were much better when he came into office then I would have to balme Obama and his band of misfits. Could there be a worse group then, Obama, Biden, Pelosi and reid. This is the allstar team for the special olympics. God help us.
Figures lie, and liars figure. End of story on this one.
Sorry Kool-aid drinkers.
Another example of cooking the satistics to benefit the current administration. We have one of the lowest participation rates in decades and yet we seem to believe things are getting better? The only reason the appear that way is when people stop looking for work they are not counted anymore.
This in a normal recession that last for a limited tim does not affect the numbers of unemployed or job seakers. But in this lack luster recovery for the last 3 years or so has proven to be a problem for the unemployment numbers being accurate. But I guess if your a Democrat you will believe the headlines and the rest of us will of course look deeper into the numbers.
hey prgprops,check GDP growth and then write another post.If anything we are headed toward another recession.
And Im not a tin foil hat wearing right-winger.
"The impact it has on our economy and how it helps us here in the U.S. is criminal. You have a push at this time of the year for part time work. I believe the true unemployment percentage is some where the 12 to 13%. The Fed has to make it look good after all, the present administration needs a push to get re-elected. I just don't like these idiots making false reports and insulting our intelligence."
Speaking of insulting intelligence, you should become part of the Main Street economy before you will comment on it. Sure, there are part time help signs everywhere. No one is taking those jobs. They pay $8/hour for 20 hours a week ($160). A tank of gas to get back and forth is now $50. Add lunch. A new pair of Levi's jeans is $68, a trucker jacket is $84. People living in the REAL world know this and don't take part time jobs that end up costing them money. Further, every big box retailer already cleared out the clearance racks and has the List Price goods nicely displayed. For whom? We shop in thrift stores and make our own (having been blockaded from YOUR economy). Go ahead and invest in a seasonal uptick but be sure you can afford to lose it. By the way... there has to be hiring before "working" exists so the holidays aren't impacting the count yet. Figure it out using your math skills... they will on-board AFTER 11/1 and terminate BEFORE 1/31 to ensure the temps won't qualify for unemployment.
" But there is probably no one who doesn't think that the economic data are massaged".
I'm thinking 50% of the 47% don't think. Let alone think that it is massaged. Or know how to calculate an unemployment rate. Or know how to do anything except collect checks.
Come on! The "markets" are a travesty. Who really gives a hoot! This will continue and it will make not one iota of a difference who is elected. Churn and burn those that have pensions and K's. If you believe other than you are drinking more than koolaid! Just relaxl and enjoy the BS...it is total fun!
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ABOUT BILL FLECKENSTEIN
This column is a synopsis of Bill Fleckenstein's daily column on his website, FleckensteinCapital.com, which he's been writing on the Internet since 1996. Click here to find Fleckenstein's most recent articles.
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