Has gold's next bull run begun?
Recently it looked as if gold was set to bottom and might turn around soon. The turn may be here already. Also: What caused Facebook's face plant?
I rarely revisit a topic so soon after I write about it, but given how much time I spend focused on precious metals, the trading in that sector over the past handful of sessions seems to be calling for me to make an exception.
In my May 18 column, "Gold's fortunes will turn around soon," I discussed the recent correction in gold and gold mining stocks, concluding, "At some point the stage will be set (if it isn't already) for an unbelievably explosive rally to the upside in metals. I think, given how stretched everything has become, that day is close, but that could mean a matter of weeks or it could be a few days."
Low and behold?
In fact, signs of stabilization were appearing even as I wrote that. In a column on my subscription site, FleckensteinCapital.com, the day before my MSN Money article appeared, I speculated about whether the previous day's lows for precious metals might be "it."
The action in the miners the next day -- i.e., the day the column was published -- was strong but not definitive. Still, I felt there was some chance it would turn out to be "the" low for the year, while expecting that some part of the range between $1,580 and $1,540 an ounce for gold could be retested once or twice.
The key questions in my mind at that point were when, and from where, the first pullback would come, as well as how deep might it be.
We soon found out, as gold dropped from $1,600 to $1,533 in just a few days.
The following Monday's trading was sort of tepid as the world apparently focused on Facebook (FB) (more on that below).
Tuesday was negative, as the metals went on a nerve-testing roller-coaster ride. First, they staged a pretty decent turnaround, led by silver, which declined about 1.5% overnight but quickly turned that loss into a similar-sized rally. That didn't stick, however, and silver lost 1% on the day. Gold turned a roughly 1.5% loss into a tiny loss, then that fizzled, and it ended up losing over 1% on the day. However, gold mining stocks, amazingly, behaved pretty well.
The next day's trading brought a giant, stunning reversal to the upside in gold stocks, even as other metals were tanking, then reversed, making it seem very likely that their collective low on May 16 will not be broken.
Thus the stage remains set for more rallies.
The price of peace of mind
What a precious-metals bull would like to see is silver, gold and the miners all ratchet up "a level" together on decent volume. We've seen better behavior from the miners (finally), but gold and silver need to start acting like the miners are beginning to (if you can believe I said that) if they really want to convince us that the whole complex has turned the corner.
If May 16 was the low, of course, it means folks will have to pay up a bit to capture this idea going forward. However, given how depressed the metals complex has been, paying up a little bit and being a bit more confident in one's risk assessment is not an insane strategy, especially with regard to mining stocks. When markets or sectors have been bludgeoned as the metals and the miners have, any subsequent rally will also have pullbacks, so it's not necessary to leap to a decision at the very first sign of strength.
Wall Street can't quite find the 'Like' button
I would be remiss if I didn't touch on news that eclipsed all the machinations in precious metals, that of course being the Facebook initial public offering. As everyone knows, its first day of trading was marred by the Nasdaq's ($COMPX) "technical difficulties," and I had to chuckle over the irony of a Nasdaq company with a New York Stock Exchange (two-letter) symbol having a communication breakdown on the "exchange of the future" (as the Nasdaq bills itself).
Since that was sorted out, the actual trading, despite all the hysteria and hype, has been a catastrophe. As almost everyone knows, after having been priced at $38 and opening at $42, it has plunged, prompting a flurry of lawsuits.
This should have been the easiest deal in the world to price, as the company had been trading in quasi-public fashion for more than a year. Yet the underwriters and the company got greedy, turning what should have been a slam dunk into a disaster.
It is mind-boggling to me how the valuation and size of the deal were increased, as well as the number of shares that will become free-trading in the not-too-distant future. If there was ever an IPO set up to experience indigestion right out of the gate, it has been this one, and that is exactly what has happened.
So while the Nasdaq glitches caused some problems, Facebook became "Facebomb" because of greed and arrogance.
At the time of publication, Bill Fleckenstein owned gold, silver, and precious-metals mining stocks.
I cashed out and bought gold, In April of 2008 as soon as I saw we were going to elect a quasi socialist, either Clinton or Obama.There it stays until Obama is an esoteric historical footnote.
There is only one way to have a stable and prosperous market , have a stable and prosperous economy.
That is not possible with the handouters running the world.
Reality has arrived, with it's hand out, expecting payback.
Expect to see the market(s) hammered in the next 8 to 9 months, in a fashion that will make 2008 look like a high school prom.
Gold was at $350 when all the pundits criticized Glenn Beck for recommending it as a safety net, poo pooing it as doomsday advice. No wonder most Wall Street traders fair no better than the average citizen on the stock market.
I put so little faith in the would be "analysts", they're always surprised by the unemployment numbers, the durable goods orders and any other so called market indicators.
I hope you read these comments. I find often the comments are as interesting as your article. Often people who can just barely write do so. Then you have some solid supporters, and solid detractors, total screwballs and most interesting is some people politicize Golds action as though it is a conspiracy by the Republicans or Democrats.
Gold is just metal, it doesn't think or act it just sits there and responds when people, Governments or Banks buy or sell it. It's price is simply relfected by supply and demand and everything else is just Bull.
The more dollars, euros, yuan or any other fiat money is printed the more wise people purchase Gold.
I fully understand the value of the two previous statements.....And the reasonings behind the Chinese and Indians obtaining and holding Yellow......Usually ceremonial or dowery holdings ?
And it makes sense about their currencies.
Lest we forget 3rd. World Elite...That give little/furnish to the lower class; But also hoard or purchase.
In case of Political strife...
Central Banks are interesting to watch and keep and eye on.......But by the time their actions are well known, I'm still holding the bag...Either of gold(miners) or money to buy with.
All these actions have repercussions on Gold; The knack is to be aware and react in a timely fashion.
Yup, read those same comparisons and projections on FB, made me really wonder; Are these azzholes (underwriters) out to suck the last drops of blood out of us??
The intent and interest I had on it, decided to cancel on the last price raise........
I may have been a very lucky person.?
Unfortunately there are several zuckers, running around now; Wondering what to do.?
Don't wait to buy gold and silver; just buy gold and silver and wait.
Behind the doors......Thought FB opened at 43 went to 45 then started it's decline ? Eventually back under the IPO of 38 per?
Good article, kitco with Frank Holmes...About Gold being our friend 5000 years (?).
Appears we might be posturing for a 1-2 month bullish run on gold....
Interesting read, if you want ?
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ABOUT BILL FLECKENSTEIN
This column is a synopsis of Bill Fleckenstein's daily column on his website, FleckensteinCapital.com, which he's been writing on the Internet since 1996. Click here to find Fleckenstein's most recent articles.
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