A Fed fail and a euro 'fix'

This week's Fed circus tells us mainly that the Fed is wrong again. But Europe may have found a way to keep the euro solvent (for now).

By Bill_Fleckenstein Jun 22, 2012 2:05PM

Image: Federal Reserve Building. Copyright: Hisham Ibrahim, CorbisThis week, all eyes were on what the Federal Open Market Committee and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke might come up with on Wednesday to make everybody happy.

 

But, in an interesting wrinkle, European debt markets that day saw their own variation of Operation Twist, in that Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese debt rallied, while Germany's was sold.

 

The reason seems to be that, behind the scenes, Germany has decided to let the European Financial Stability Facility lend directly to the PIIGS, those problem nations of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. I say "seems" because that is the current back story, though Germany is still officially denying it (at least through midweek -- more on that below).

 

Obviously, we will have to see what happens. But if Germany has, in fact, caved on the issue, the European Central Bank will still be required to provide a giant amount of stimulus to make the whole system run. If those two things occur, then Europe will have effectively created a Federal Reserve of its own, and it will probably be able to kick the can down the road a ways.

 

Angela we have heard on high

The Fed eventually delivered the news that Operation Twist would be extended through the end of the year, and it said that it was prepared to take further action (due to the fact that it had lowered its growth outlook). Markets across the board sold off hard, except for bonds. But shortly thereafter, a headline passed on Bloomberg which claimed (though it certainly didn't look "official") that German Chancellor Angela Merkel had said the EFSF may be allowed to buy bonds, which sparked a rally in pretty much everything (again, except bonds).

 

That was followed by Bernanke's news conference, where he basically had to admit that the Fed's economic optimism of the prior few meetings was misplaced (i.e., it was dead wrong, as usual).

 

Even though I have been saying this for 20 years, it still boggles my mind that the people running the Fed can be so amazingly and demonstratively incompetent, yet they are entrusted with unequaled power to change the course of history and people's futures based on their pet theories (and bolstered by ego-boosting reinforcement from the applause meter).

 

Although Bernanke is not the egomaniac that his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, was, he has done no less damage. (On the other hand, had Greenspan not done what he did, Bernanke probably wouldn't have followed the course that he has.)

 

When I wrote my book "Greenspan's Bubbles," I figured that in a few years (and certainly by now) the whole world would have seen what a catastrophe Greenspan and the Fed were, and the tremendous negative influence they have had on the country. But here we are -- four years, trillions of dollars' worth of damage and millions of ruined lives later -- and people are still unable to see the obvious. It is just incredible that something this evident continues to be unrecognized by so many people the world over.

 

It's best to learn from other people's mistakes

 One person who does get it is a friend and fellow investor (who prefers anonymity), to whom I have given the moniker, "Mr. Skin." With well over 40 years of very successful experience in investing, he is a welcome and regular contributor to the "Ask Fleck" section of my subscription site, FleckensteinCapital.com, where he recently offered this bit of historical perspective, and a lesson worth noting:

 

"(June 15 was) the 50th anniversary of my first loss (and lesson) in the stock market. I was a freshly scrubbed, fish-eyed new voter in 1960 and voted for JFK. He had imagination and was young, compared to Nixon, who looked like a crook (even at that early date). . . In any case, Kennedy was going to the moon and the 'aerospace' and 'tech' stocks took off into a bubble that resembled the tech boom of the late 1990s.

 

"Of course, at my tender age, it looked like a fool-proof way to extend my college passion for poker and bridge. The stock market soon became the bold, new way to get rich. I connected with an equally new Merrill Lynch broker and started to learn how to speak 'market.' He 'advised' me to buy some Air Space Devices, a hot new issue. I bought it a $12, certain of a big hit.

 

"Unfortunately, Kennedy was having a spat with the steel industry. The union had jacked up a wage demand and the companies, led by Roger Blough, chairman of US Steel (X), decided to hike prices for steel. This threatened to cause inflation at a time when politicians worried about such things. So, Kennedy ordered the FBI to go after steel company executives, and the stock market immediately cratered, dropping 30% within a couple of months (April-June 1962).

 

"I was scared out of Air Space Devices at $2 for a loss of $10 on a $12 trade. The lesson was simple: understand what you are doing. The broker hyping Air Space Devices was hungry for the fat underwriting fee. If I had bothered to read the prospectus, I would have learned that the company had nothing to do with the aerospace/moon shot industry. The damn company made ladders for fire engines and was taking advantage of the aerospace stock boom to raise capital at a huge premium to reality. Lesson learned!''

 

One of the things all successful investors have learned the hard way is that nothing is foolproof, especially if you are the one who might be acting foolish. And, as Mr. Skin notes, knowing what you know and knowing what you don't know, i.e., doing your homework, is the best insurance against foolishness there is. Too bad Bernanke et al. don't seem to have learned that.

 

At the time of publication, Bill Fleckenstein did not own or control shares of any company mentioned in this column.
91Comments
Jun 25, 2012 5:19PM
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Glad to see some additional positive support of Bill. I too listened to him in 2008 and still have my nest egg intact. I also avoided many Wall Street smoke and mirror plays, choosing to invest in the sub-economy. it has paid off very well and has significant future prospects. The best naysayers can do now is "try" to sell. With banks buried in EU Shark Bonds, I doubt they will be too willing to pay up or off.
Jun 25, 2012 4:19PM
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Mr. Fleckenstein is right on again as usual.  Some of us listened to him in 2008 when he called the bluff of Wall Street. We got out in time.

Now some optimists are criticizing Fleck for being bearish in 2012.

If those same people stay in the market, they will sell at the bottom and lose their shirts. Again. Some people just won't learn.

Jun 25, 2012 1:55PM
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Fleckenstein has made a living by calling everyone who has a positive attitude wrong, especially regarding the stock market and economy.  Classic example of a "PermaBear".  And yes, if one continues to parrot the same message over several decades eventually he is correct.   I have done well over the years by doing the opposite of what Fleckenstein recommends.
My name for Bill is "Feckless Fleckenstein".

Jun 25, 2012 1:35PM
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If  anyone is a long time reader as I am of Bill Fleckenstein anyone would know that gold and the gold miners are going to pay off.  No one can really time the market and don't believe that he can either.  That being said, bill is telling everyone what to expect in the future.  Bill may not be correct today, but my money is invested for what might happen in the future.  Thank you Bill for keeping me on track and buying low and buying more.  Just a matter of time is the point of his articles.  Everyone do yourself a favor and listen to him.

Jun 25, 2012 1:12PM
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"Diluting the money supply by printing massive amounts more by the Federal Reserve Bank is nothing more than an unapproved TAX"

Absolutely. In fact, several of the key components of our crises and issues are directly out of the Inflationist play book. The main objective is not debasing the currency, its creating complex financial instruments and forcing the public to honor them as they recover the economy. It's a game. Old Money wants to keep living separate and above the rest of us. this is how it's been for centuries. The objective now is to support the variables that compromise those instruments. There is no value in Elitism. If you want prestige, work an honest day for it and let others bestow it on you.
Jun 25, 2012 12:39PM
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Another reason why the FED needs to go!! Did you know the Federal Reserve is as "Federal" as Fedex. There is nothing federal about it, it's a private enterprise run by the government and banks. Look at the statistics prior to the enactment of the Federal Reserve in 1913, its all about the endless printing of money. Its been a fiat scam for decades.
Jun 25, 2012 12:27PM
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the issue is demand...there isn't any for two reasons...1. young people cannot get jobs and without

income they cannot spend anything but what their baby boom parents give them  2. baby boomers

who have saved even to the tune of 3-4 million are getting no interest and therefore no income

and therefore they can't spend either...70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending..

so bill is correct in assessing the damage done by greenspan and easy money...it tempted those

who couldn't afford it to buy homes..at interest ratess that would double and triple in just a few years

it tempted those who had homes and thought they would continue to go up in value to borrow

against what they presumed was equity and which turned out to be debt...and it tempted those

who thought that stocks were a buy and hold winning plan to double down on their 401k's...

now we have to pay the piper and that could take a very very long time to unwind

Jun 25, 2012 11:51AM
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Diluting the money supply by printing massive amounts more by the Federal Reserve Bank is nothing more than an unapproved TAX on all Americans who have a dollar in their pocket.  The result of the devalued dollar is always the same:  Products & services cost more.  Do you remember when a gallon of gasoline cost $0.28?  (Yes, that's TWENTY EIGHT CENTS!)  The Federal Reserve Bank should at LEAST be audited to expose where all that money is going!
Jun 25, 2012 11:48AM
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You'd think France would drag out a guillotine from some museum and let people throughout Europe know how the last Fiat Money Inflation Fiasco was resolved. Like US... job recovery lifts all ships and all ships need lifting. Put the workforce back to work, relief the Dunce Force (Central Banks) of duty and get them hot and heavy on grunt labor positions.
Jun 25, 2012 11:44AM
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HEY-- moderators... every other post is SPAM now. When are you going to block it?
Jun 25, 2012 11:26AM
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 "all eyes were on what the FOMC and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke might come up with on Wednesday to make wall street happy" 

 

There, fixed it.

Jun 25, 2012 11:15AM
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The only way out of this will be what Canada did.  They limited unemployment insurance, reduced their environmental laws  so they could increase their use of their natural resources which created jobs and increased their money flow into the country.  They have an unemployment rate below 6%. 

 

Their homes are not under water due to a bubble like in America and Europe as they required a higher downpayment on that home up front.

 

The problem with America is we allow the Gov't to tie our hands behind our backs.   Maybe that is why we have 50% of the population on Gov't subsidies.  People just gave up and now want the rest of us to hand over what we make to them.  

 

It is time that people learn to fend for themselves and get off the Gov't tit.   Conversely it is time the Gov't dries up the tit.   There will be a lot of bawling and whining just like a calf or a foal when they are weaned, but it is necessary for America (and Europe) if they want to survive.

 

Jun 25, 2012 9:43AM
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The Fed and Europe are solving this debt crises by printing money. This is inflation. With fixed low wages and high unemployment inflation will reduce the purchasing capacity of the consumer. Unemployment will increase.
Jun 25, 2012 9:07AM
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Doesn't matter whether it's Merkel, Obama, or any other world leader or want to be leader. They get elected according to what is termed democracy, and in most cases there is little to choose from. The same machinery to get one party and individual in power is the same machinery used by the losers. And that machinery is corrupt working under the guise of democracy and the good of the electorate. Sure there is a leader, but surrounding them is the party, administration, bureaucracy, interest groups, lobbyists, big business,media, financial instiutions, and the list goes on. And each is likely serving it's own interests - after all, whatever is wrong is the cause of some other group - in the same way as being caught in a traffic jam - it's always the rest of the traffic, not oneself, that is to blame. The entire financial and social mess through the world is certainly not improving and until for once the various leaders and organisations that lead,  manage to forgo their petty self-serving interests and selfishness to work on a cohesive solution, the situation will only get worse. It's unbelievable that with all the technology, information and history that the human race has amassed over the recent few thousand years, without the thin veneer of governance and democracy, humanity is no more advanced than the tribes it sprang from in the african jungles. Some days it appears so wasteful that we have but a mere 70 years on the planet. But looking at the past handful of decades, in another sense it may be a blessing - at the end of the day, let's hope we are alone in the universe - the converse is a much more embarassing  option. Humanity is such a disappointment to itself - good luck with the future, despite the incredibly bleak outlook. Such a waste of a species with so much potential.

Jun 25, 2012 8:43AM
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Who's the biggest borrower in the world?  I think it's the US Gov't.  Who has set the rates at near 0% - I think it's the biggest borrower. . . now isn't that nice.  I think I'm going to try to set my own rate next time I go to the bank!!!  Who's paying the price - my 86 year old mom who saved her whole life and now gets a check for $150 every 6 months on her IRA...keep up the good work Ben.

 

Jun 25, 2012 8:40AM
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Hey Clownhead..

Taking money from producers to give new cars to lees producers, and non producers is as wrong as confronting me in a dark alley with a gun and taking the money that way.

You have NO CLAIM morrally on someone elses money NO MATTER how much they have and how little you have.....period!

 

Jun 25, 2012 7:14AM
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If the Federal bank buys 15 million cars,  then, they,  give them to low income people, it will stimulate the economy, create jobs, and lift manufacturing.

The people who receive these will buy tags every year, pay insurance, and service the cars every three thousand miles. They will also save money at the pump, with fuel efficient cars and trucks.

many of these people could save twenty  dollars per week with more fuel efficient cars, compared to what their fuel consumption is now.

Jun 25, 2012 7:07AM
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you keep hearing  that the bail out the feds  did  kept things  from going  farther down .  what would of happen if  we had let  them  all fail .  the only thing that gained from the  bail out  was  the stock  market  car  prices  have  not  dropped gas prices went  sky  high  since  the  feds  slowed down  a bit  prices  seem to be coming down a little  banks won't lean money  because the intrest rate is so  low they don't  want  30 yr   locked in  rates  at 4% or less lookes like the bail out was  more dangerous  than  good  maybe i am looking at this all wrong but the only people i see who gained from the  bail out  was  big  money   the  stock  market  and  banks  the euro has been  kicking the can for over a year  now  could it  be  that  nobody  can print enough money  to fix this  problem that it is beyond  any  help
Jun 25, 2012 1:14AM
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The second American Revolution is going to be a blast!
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ABOUT BILL FLECKENSTEIN

Image: Bill Fleckenstein, MSN money

This column is a synopsis of Bill Fleckenstein's daily column on his website, FleckensteinCapital.com, which he's been writing on the Internet since 1996. Click here to find Fleckenstein's most recent articles.

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