Updated: 6/7/2012 12:30 PM ET|
Is retiring early too risky?
Those calculations seem like little more than wishful thinking when the experience of actual retirees is taken into account. A majority of retirees questioned in the same survey said their retirement income was at least 80% of what it had been while they were working.
The risks of not having enough
Once the cost of a retirement has been estimated, any number of analyses can be run to learn whether the prospective retiree has the resources. A common denominator seems to be an appreciation of worst-case scenarios and a recognition, as McNair says, that financial forecasting is "not an exact science." Still, you should consider several obvious stumbling blocks.
Can a bad economy destroy the value of a retirement nest egg? Gnuse cautions against being lulled into a false sense of security by projections of average returns. An average doesn't take into account the possibility that there will be several years of below-average returns that could force any retiree to dip into his investment principal. Returns can "revert to the mean later on," Gnuse says, "but by then there may not be enough assets to revert." The stock market's long stumble from its 2008 high vividly illustrates this problem.
Will inflation cut down your purchasing power? Watch out for the ravages of inflation. A portfolio can earn handsome returns, but if the cost of living increases at a faster clip, retirement can be jeopardized. So you will need assets that will grow over time and provide a hedge against inflation.
How reliable is your income? Weigh this carefully. The future viability of Social Security is an open question. And company pensions and retirement savings plans are not always the bedrock upon which a retirement can be built. So not only do you need assets that will grow, you also need assets that won't shrink -- bonds, bond funds and similar income-generating investments.
To capture "the vagaries of what the real world throws at us," the Schaumburg, Ill., firm of Balasa Dinverno & Foltz runs what Mark Balasa calls a sophisticated "Monte Carlo" analysis for clients.
Using a Monte Carlo simulation and other modeling tools, Balasa is able to tell prospective retirees the probability -- given their assets, savings rates and ability to generate income -- that they'll achieve the retirement they seek.
He says in cases where the probability is low -- 60%, for example -- "We say, gosh, either you need to work a few more years, go for a riskier portfolio with a higher rate of return, or you need to die sooner."
Balasa also recommends considering a number of other factors in any early retirement scenario:
- The age for taking full Social Security benefits is increasing. Those born before 1938 reached full retirement age at 65; those born later have to wait longer.
- Medicare benefits begin at age 65, so anyone retiring before that age may be on the hook for the cost of basic health insurance.
- Avoiding a 10% penalty for early withdrawal of IRAs and pensions requires knowledgeable planning -- and the use of such things as the 72t election, which permits a fixed amount to be withdrawn at regular intervals before the age of 59 1/2.
- Be aware of a portfolio's "tax efficiency." The lower an asset's cost basis, the worse the tax consequence when it is sold.
A final factor that must be taken into account is the possibility of failure. What if you retire and then, for whatever reason, can't make ends meet? How do you unretire?
One strategy is to maintain contact with the work world by lining up part-time employment during retirement. A majority of boomers -- nearly eight in 10, according to the AARP survey -- say they plan to do that, whether out of perceived economic necessity or simply for fun.
A variety of resources exist -- private and not-for-profit -- to help retirees find work. A good place to start is AARP's Work & Retirement homepage.
Even if all of this rumination and calculation yields an unfavorable result -- a finding that early retirement simply is out of reach -- it will not necessarily have been in vain.
A substantive benefit of such exercises, McNair says, "is finding out what you need to do to get in the ballpark."
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RetireRight: Not sure what or who you are selling, .....................but, since the average American male life expectency right now is 78, ...............more importantly it took 25 years to go from 72-78, what Harry Potter like magic lets you Kreskin the age of 90 (a 12 year increase in 10 years)?
Straight out B/S!
Retire @ 65 and live to 78, is 13 years x the average S/S payments WITHOUT ANY COST OF LIVING ADJUSTMENTS is 175000.......with the COLA, closer to 300000!
Retire @ 65 and live till 90, is 25 years x the average S/S payments WITHOUT ANY COST OF LIVING ADJUSTMENTS is 340000........with the COLA , closer to 510000!
This is without any consideration of ANY SAVINGS OR ACCUMULATION OF SALABLE ASSETS, like a paid off house to reverse mortgage, or any # of personal valuables that will do you no good unless you are alive beyond the full on lie about living till 90!
Fact, if you have 200-300 grand in assets and an average S/S income, you will do just fine if you live your retirement with the brains and class (not throwing yourself on the mercy of those who are responsible) that you did to be in this position.
Luck. Who knows what decisions will lead us where. At 18, I enlisted in the military, while most of my friends went off to college. I now have a retirement after 20 years of service to my country. Fair compensation, I would say, for a decision that places my body between the havoc of war and the civilians who choose not to take the risk. Oh, by the way, I used my educational benefits to get a Bachelor of Science degree while still on active duty. I used those same educational benefits to pursue a Masters degree while still on active duty. I had to complete it with a couple of low-level student loans after I retired, but they are payed off. Thanks to my Bach. Sci. degree I had a couple of assignments while still active that gave me experience within my field of study. Thus, when I retired I had "experience."
After I retired, I finished my Masters and then moved to the State where I now live.I got a job, commensurate with my level of education and my experience. I worked there for 15 years until I became a widower. I resigned and took early retirement at 55. Retired and drawing pension from two careers, with access to both medical and dental care (at a small fee).
To be quite honest, I started "bouncing off of the walls" after a few months. Income locked in and limited to essentials, so I looked for work. After an abortive six-month stint at job in the coastal area of a neighboring state, I came "home" and looked for work locally. It took a few months, but I got hired on as "seasonal help" at the local expression of a corporate chain. I was picked up for a regular position at the end of the season.
Two years later, due to "corporate" micro management of wages and hours, I started putting out applications again, not for the high end jobs, to much stress for a widower, but just something that provided more hours and higher pay (relatively speaking). It worked, it took six months, but it worked. For the last year I have been employed full time and at a higher wage. The key? I work, from the moment I clock in I work. I show up on time (20 to 30 minutes early to look around and see what needs to be done). I am also an independent worker, I don't wait to be told what needs to be done. I see it, I do it without asking. I don't read books at work, I don't play games on an iPod, IPad, or NOOK at work. I do the job I am paid to do.
I have no plans to claim SS until 2019. I will turn 66 in that year, I can claim Survivor Benefits based on my late wife's work record and save claiming mine until I turn 70. I might choose to work past 66 or I may choose to start traveling a bit.
Of course, I am betting that the United States will still be around then, and that I am not fighting off ravening hordes of mindless zombies/looters. I think we will still be here as a nation and that we will pull through this current financial morass.
This is America.
Ok I started drawing my ss at age 62, work was slow, economy bad. Now I am 78 and working some,
I got lucky in 09 and the work paid about 300.00 a day so I paid in a lot of ss. so does that raise my benefits any???
- If he retires at 65, he can expect to pay roughly $476,000 out-of-pocket throughout the course of his retirement.
- If he retires at 63, he can expect to pay roughly $501,500 out-of pocket throughout the course of his retirement.
- If he retires at 60, he can expect to pay roughly $531,750 out-of-pocket throughout the course of his retirement.
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