2/17/2012 2:31 PM ET|
Where to get the best bond yields
The news that the Fed intends to keep interest rates low should extend the bond rally, but ETF investors will want to steer clear of broad-market funds.
The long-running bull market in bonds should continue this year, albeit with different sectors leading the way.
Treasury bonds continue to defy bubble predictions, and the Federal Reserve's late January announcement that it is likely to keep rates low at least until late 2014 could extend the Treasury rally a tad longer, says Scott Kimball, a portfolio manager with Taplin, Canida & Habacht.
The Fed acknowledged in its recent statement that inflation remains subdued and that it expects only modest economic growth, affirming an easy-money policy for the foreseeable future.
Analysts expect the policy to prod investors into riskier assets and act as a form of insurance against continued instability in Europe.
So, with 10-year nominal yields hovering around 2% and real yields negative when adjusted for inflation, the desire for higher income should trump safety and lead bond investors into the sectors that offer yields that exceed what's now available via Treasurys.
Combine a desire for yield with expectations for slow but steady economic growth and tame inflation, and you have an environment that should benefit all but the priciest U.S. bonds.
For exchange-traded fund investors, this means avoiding the government-heavy broad-market vehicles like iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond (AGG)and Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND), and drilling down to the spread sectors.
"We're very constructive on corporate credit; the fundamentals look extremely positive,'' says Chris Molumphy, Franklin Templeton's chief investment officer of fixed income.
U.S. corporate bonds turned in a solid 8.1% performance in 2011, and the momentum has remained. Companies have increased profits through a sluggish recovery by cutting debt, boosting productivity and taking advantage of ultralow interest rates to refinance at favorable terms. These actions have helped improve credit quality, one of the main drivers of price increases.
Improving fundamentals and a stabilizing economy should also benefit junk bonds. The prevailing default rate of 1.7% for bonds rated below investment grade is low compared with the 4.2% long-term average.
Junk-bond issuers should be in the clear for the next three years, before the effects of refinancing at lower rates and extending maturities begin to wear off, says Mary Austin, the portfolio manager of the Pax World High Yield Bond (PAXHX)fund.
"When GDP (growth) is 2% or lower, high yield has historically outperformed,'' Austin adds.
Bonds backed by mortgages underwritten by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae should also do well in a low-growth environment. These bonds, most of which carry an implicit government guarantee, offer yields double those of similar-maturity Treasurys.
Continued government efforts to revive the housing market should limit the number of mortgages that fall into delinquency and keep principal and interest payments flowing to bondholders. The possible Fed purchase of mortgage-backed securities as part of another round of quantitative easing is also a positive, says Kimball.
Molumphy places emerging-markets bonds at the top of his list, citing yields that are higher, economic growth rates that are faster and debt levels that are lower than comparable levels in the struggling economies of Europe and Japan.
Emerging-markets bonds suffered from price declines and a foreign currency sell-off in 2011 as investors spurned risky assets. This action leaves them attractively valued, with their economic advantages still in place.
"Investors have yet to price in the strong fundamentals of the developing markets,'' says Buff Dormeier of Wells Fargo Advisors.
Investors can own emerging-markets bonds denominated in U.S. dollars or play the expected strengthening of emerging-markets currencies against the dollar through bonds denominated in local currencies.
More from CNBC:
VIDEO ON MSN MONEY
Mitsubishi and PetroChina have made major purchases of natural gas and oil deposits in northern BC and Alberta, Canada, which will delivered to Kitimak BC's new LNG port with startup planned for 2015. Kitimak LNG port is being built by Apache Corp and EOG Resources.
TransCanada and Exxon are in the "open season" negotiations for Alaska's north slope stranded natural gas, with ConocoPhillips, BP, Pioneer and ENI holding substantial additional proven reserves.
The economic race is on in the Pacific, while everyone is lulled to sleep with the problems of Europe and the lighting of the torch in Greece.
Copyright © 2014 Microsoft. All rights reserved.
Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Morningstar Inc. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Morningstar Inc. Quotes delayed by up to 15 minutes, except where indicated otherwise. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by Morningstar Inc.
[BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices closed out the month of August on a modestly higher note. The Russell 2000 (+0.6%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) finished ahead of the S&P 500 (+0.3%), which extended its August gain to 3.8%. Blue chips lagged with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) spending the bulk of the session in the red.
The final week of August represented one of the quietest stretches for the stock market so far this year. The first four sessions of the week produced the ... More
More Market News
|There’s a problem getting this information right now. Please try again later.|
MUST-SEE ON MSN
- Video: Easy DIY smoked meats at home
A charcuterie master shares his process for cold-smoking meat at home.
- Jetpacks about to go mainstream
- Weird things covered by home insurance
- Bing: 70 percent of adults report 'digital eye strain'