The 10 for the next 10 years
And now for the fun part. Putting together my 2012 list of 10 stocks for 10 years.
One part of this list is new -- well, actually it's a year old, since I added it with last year's revision to the portfolio.
This list didn't do very well in 2011, with picks Bunge (BG, news) down 11.2%, Cemex (CX, news) down 47.7%, Deltic Timber up 7.7%; Johnson Controls (JCI, news) down 16.4%, and Rayonier (RYN, news) up 31.8%. If you want to be mean, you could snidely say that with the exception of Cemex, those best picks beat the loss for the portfolio as a whole, but you wouldn't be that mean, right?
Here are the five long-term picks already on the list that I think will do best in 2012:
● Cemex (CX, news). I'm keeping the Mexican cement giant on the list in the belief that the company will manage to pay down and renegotiate its huge debt load again and continue its end-of-the-year recovery as the U.S. construction sector picks up speed. (Not much. Just some.) The shares, down 47.7% in 2011, were up 55% from Nov. 25 through the end of 2011.
● Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX, news). Copper is the commodity most sensitive to the growth rate of the global economy. I expect demand to pick up in the second half with evidence that the slowdown has bottomed in China and Brazil. Because of the strike at its Grasberg mine, the company will face relatively easy comparisons in the second half of the year. This pick was down 36.2% in 2011.
● General Cable (BGC, news). The global economic slowdown pushed back a lot of spending on upgrading the electricity grid. There's only so long that kind of spending can be put off, and General Cable has pushed hard to gain share in the part of the global economy that will recover first and raise spending on infrastructure: emerging markets. This pick was down 28.7% in 2011.
● Gol Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes (GOL, news). Brazil's stock market is recovering faster than China's, and in 2012 investors will focus more on the increase in air travel from the soccer World Cup and the summer Olympics.
● Potash of Saskatchewan (POT, news). The temporary slump in demand for potash and other fertilizers will end once distributors see that the world isn't coming to an end and as farmers order for the spring season. The pick was down 19.5% in 2011.
And, finally, here are my five additions for this year's list.
● Home Inns & Hotels Management (HMIN, news). This operator of low- and moderate-cost hotels and motels will profit from the increase in domestic travel in China as incomes rise -- and from the end of the bear market in China's stocks.
● Lynas (LYSCF, news). The rare-earth producer will get its processing plant running in Malaysia just in time for the recovery in global demand for rare earths in the technology and alternative energy sectors.
● Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD, news). Pioneer's stakes in the Barnett and Eagle Ford shales are rich in natural gas liquids, and that has helped the company dodge the worst effects of low natural gas prices. Unlike many of its peers, Pioneer has been able to raise money in the financial markets -- $490 million in November -- to finance development of its assets rather than having to sell off stakes to bigger, cash-rich energy companies.
● Weyerhaeuser (WY, news). The company converted to a real-estate investment trust in 2010 (3.04% dividend) after selling off its paper and corrugated packaging businesses. Real-estate sales on the company's 6.15 million acres of timberland provided 13% of sales in 2010.
● Yamana Gold (AUY, news). In the third quarter, Yamana reported a 22% year-over-year increase in revenue and cash costs of just $468 per gold equivalent ounce. Yamana isn't putting a huge amount of capital at risk to increase production, since it has been able to increase reserves by developing existing mines rather than exploring for and then developing new deposits.
Look for the usual sporadic updates on the stocks in this portfolio in the coming months. (And I promise to have the all the stocks added to or deleted from the portfolio within a week this year.)
At the time of publication, Jim Jubak did not own or control shares of any company mentioned in this column in his personal portfolio. The mutual fund he manages,Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX), may or may not now own positions in any stock mentioned in this post. The fund did own shares of Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold, Gol Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes, Home Inns & Hotels Management, Johnson Controls, Lynas, Pioneer Natural Resources, Potash of Saskatchewan and Yingli Green Energy as of the end of September. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of September see the fund's portfolio here. The fund's portfolio as of the end of December will be posted in a few days.
Jim Jubak's column has run on MSN Money since 1997. He is the author of the book "The Jubak Picks," based on his market-beating Jubak's Picks portfolio; the writer of the Jubak's Picks blog; and the senior markets editor at MoneyShow.com. Get a free 60-day trial subscription to JAM, his premium investment letter, by using this code: MSN60 when you register at the Jubak Asset Management website.
Click here to find Jubak's most recent articles, blog posts and stock picks.
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Keep your powder dry. Standard & Poor just whacked France. More fun to come!
1. Congress writes laws, including spending bills, not POTUS.
2. Tax receipts are at the lowest level in decades. High unemployent will do that, duh.
When you learn how laws are written, you'll point the finger of blame where it belongs: our do-nothing representatives.
I see your comments almost every week and it's says say the same thing on what people should do.
The next time you mention to people what stocks they should buy how about showing your financial statements showing that you own the stocks that you talk about and people should buy. Or how about when the stocks go "south" and lose money then what do you tell all the people who took your advice. I know what you would tell them "it's a gamble there is not guarantee that the investor will make money
I once saw on TV that three women took a hand full of darts and threw them at a board of stocks and where the darts landed those were the stocks the three ladies invested in. Low and be hold they did pretty good. They made better than 20% on their investment.
So the moral of the comment you don't have to be an expert to pick stock in order to make money.
I was long General Cable for a while, but in my general liquidation of about half of my portfolio in December (because I think Europe will implode sometime in 2012), I sold them off. I like them as a company, but they don't pay dividends. I don't want to sit and hold on a company that doesn't pay dividends.
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