5/1/2013 8:30 PM ET|
Obama's recovery has failed
Who is to blame?
Since everything is politicized these days, no doubt your first reaction was to blame either Obama or the Republicans for the tepid recovery.
Both have played a part. Republicans helped overdramatize the budget battles. But Obama is in the White House. He is the leader, and he needed to find more room for compromise. We did see this in the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act, passed about a year ago, that helped ease the flow of capital to small entrepreneurs and passed with bipartisan support. And with the tax cuts in the 2009 stimulus, as well as the 2010 tax cut package.
But more often, we've had an epic academic battle over broad economic concepts like Keynesianism versus supply-side economics and debt-fueled spending versus budget austerity. Partisan warriors have enlisted economists to justify their positions as skirmishes intensify.
Witness the recent kerfuffle over the work of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (which has been parodied by Steven Colbert and criticized by other economists) that showed throughout history deeper government indebtedness has been associated with increased vulnerability to financial panics and slower, less vigorous economic growth.
Their work showed that once a government's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 90%, bad things happen. (Ours has hit 105% and is still rising.) Critics claim the drag from higher debt is not as bad as budget hawks claim. But it's also true that critics have found reason to criticize the assumption -- also based on Reinhart-Rogoff research -- that financial panics lead to weaker recoveries as well, something those on the left have used to shield Obama from criticism.
Economists are even battling over whether this recovery is truly disappointing or not. I'd say, although the stock market has entered its own reality, most on-the-ground measures such as jobs, wages, and production tell a different story. And the chart below, from Stanford economist John B. Taylor, clearly shows the current recovery is substandard when compared with others in U.S. history.
The confidence problem
Explanations for the faltering recovery have also been politicized.
On the left, the argument is that there is insufficient demand for goods and services, which monetary and fiscal policy stimulus can help. This is the argument used by the Federal Reserve to justify their increasingly aggressive bond-buying program and the fact that interest rates have been at 0% since 2008.
Their solution: More borrowing from China to fund more spending programs and more money printing with which to subsidize the government's indebtedness.
On the right, the argument is that the government's policies are damaging consumer and business confidence while out-of-control borrowing (both the Senate Democrats' and Obama's 2014 budget proposals never come into balance; the House GOP plan closes the deficit a decade from now) increases worries over future tax obligations.
They also criticize Obama's stimulus plan as containing a $144 billion handout to state and local governments to postpone job cuts that ended up happening anyway -- money that didn't do anything to improve the economy's long-term productivity.
The key problem, as I've written before, is one of confidence and inadequate private-sector investment and hiring. We're suffering from the weakest growth in the private stock of productive capital -- machinery and equipment -- in six decades, which is why productivity is falling. When productivity falls, living standards and economic vitality decline as well.
And confidence is down because businesses large and small are worried about higher taxes, increased health care regulation and expenses, uncertain monetary policy, uncertain value of the dollar and a lack of clarity on the government's financial position.
In the latest National Federation of Independent Business survey, taxes, government requirements and red tape are by far the top concerns. Confidence in government policy dropped 10 points in the latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index. And Obama's disapproval rating is higher than his approval rating for the first time since August as the re-election bloom fades.
There is plenty of low hanging policy fruit with which to turn this around. Let's use the bipartisan plan from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget -- a group headed by the folks that ran Obama's 2010 deficit commission -- to stabilize the national debt and reform health-care entitlements, reform and simplify the tax code, and cut waste and fraud in government.
To this, I would add reform and cost-benefit analysis of federal regulations -- a cancerous byzantine of red tape that serves special interests and lobbyists and hurts entrepreneurs.
Taylor's research suggests that embracing "a gradual and credible fiscal consolidation will help get the economy out its depressed state and into an economic situation where people recognize that lower growth of government spending eventually means lower taxes and more take-home income." He estimates that such a plan could add 1% to GDP growth next year, worth $1,500 per household. Over 10 years, he estimates it would raise the overall size of the economy by 3%, or more than $4,000 per household.
He bases this on the House GOP budget proposal, which would by 2023 take federal spending as a percentage of GDP down from a postwar high of 22.2% today to 19.1%, which is still above the 18.2% seen at the end of the Clinton administration.
Taylor doesn't believe more borrowing and spending by the government is the answer, since "resources to finance government expenditures aren't free -- they withdraw resources from the private economy." Expect this debate to heat up in the months to come as the Treasury once again runs into its statutory debt limit and Congress and the White House start budget discussions.
The takeaway is that Obama needs to get off the links, step away from inflammatory social issues like abortion and gun control, and concentrate on an economy that's losing steam and needs fresh ideas -- ideas that unleash the creative power of the private sector, unleash the huge cash reserves of the corporate sector, and address the deterioration in business confidence and labor productivity.
If he can resist the left's call for more borrow-and-spend stimulus and embrace a more pro-business approach, the Republicans will be hard-pressed to say no. After all, while Americans re-elected Obama, they also re-elected the divided Congress they installed in 2010 in response to Obama's early policies -- including the stimulus, the bailouts and Obamacare. They want solutions both parties can agree on, not more bloody partisan warfare in the context of a weakening economy.
Be sure to check out Anthony's new money management service, Mirhaydari Capital Management, and his investment newsletter, the Edge. A free, two-week trial subscription to the newsletter has been extended to MSN Money readers. Click here to sign up. Mirhaydari can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org and followed on Twitter at @EdgeLetter. You can view his current stock picks here. Feel free to comment below.
Can't make it to the show? You can log on live and watch Mirhaydari's presentation on “Profiting from the New Bear Market”, as well as a panel discussion with writers from MSN Money's Top Stocks blog. Click here to register in advance.
VIDEO ON MSN MONEY
And we're still facing a deficit of nearly 6 million full-time jobs -- and nearly 13 million if we account for population growth as well as jobs lost during the recession
Don't forget to include those that have just stopped looking for work altogether.
President Ocommie never intended the economy to improve.....
People need to realize that a commie marxist ideolog like him needs to destroy capitalism, freemarkets, self reliance and freedom to grow government and maintain power....
.Thanks to all the low information idiot voters and freeriders we are going to suffer the results.
If the Democrats win the House in 2014....welcome to a New Banana Republic.
He only wants to expand the great plantation (as long as he and his contemporaries are in the ruling class)
For those who blindly follow your great leader, good luck.
It doesn't end well.
Might want to take a look at the socialist paradise in Venezuela.
They sit on the world's 2nd largest oil reserve and yet they can't keep food on the shelves.
Oh well, as long as the Obama phones keep coming, who cares.
The republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, merely a fool. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools such as those who made him their president.
We can see what a Keynesian driven consumption based economy becomes.
Sprinkle in a century of Liberal/Progressive government expanding redistribution nonsense in the name of social and economic justice and we see the results. Central government has as much chance of creating commerce as you standing in a bucket and picking it up. You'll be struggling as long a we have.
We are straining under 20th century beliefs in the 21st century. Our criminal progressive tax system has been tweaked in virtually every possible way and obtunded with a 76,000 page tax code that even the IRS can't decipher.
Growth strapping regulations keep being added with the hope that someday we'll get lucky and they will somehow help. The 2009 edition of the Code of Federal Regulations was the largest ever, encompassing 163,333 pages in 226 individual books. Rarely are any of them enforced, unfortunately.
Trade agreements are more management than any semblance of "free-trade". We don't need free-trade, we need fair-trade.
Unions, and their inherent corruption, have decimated our manufacturing base. Instead of being industry aversive unions need to become supportive. Losing all our consumable manufacturing due to union corruption does neither our economy nor the unions any good.
The lack of a strong all-the-above energy policy keeps us struggling with the 2 biggest invisible taxes, gas and food price inflation.
Unless we realize that government has a contractual basis with the American people. That contract is the Constitution. When we allow our criminal government, and all its feel-good redistribution, social engineering nonsense to usurp its mandated responsibilities we see the cluster f**k that our economy has begun.
Of course the single biggest embarrassment that will prevent us from competing any time soon in the global economy is our dysfunctional government run public education system. But that’s a discussion for another time.
My English must be bad - could have sworn it said "recession ended" Still not counting the unemployed who are no longer counted because their benefits ran out, and gee, the stock numbers look so good in red!
Que the Twilight Zone music please...... thank you
Yes recession has ended, says a stupid asinine in the tank for a commie azzwipe,
recession ended?? recovery slow?? recovery??? that's like saying a dead dog is just asleep but he'll wake up soon, maybe, I think, possibly, well let's wait and see, ahh Geroge Bush, ahhh damn!! played that card already!! ahh oh global warming slowed the recovery, or recession ahh oh that's right the global warming hoax has been outted already as a fraud, ahhhh let's see know who to blame....damn!! nobody left but that pig obama but he's playing golf!
now the reality of the situation: NO THE RECESSION HAS NOT ENDED, WE'RE IN THE SAME ONE WE'VE ALWAYS BEEN IN ONLY WORSE!!, now, are you HIGH tony??!!!!! THIS NATION IS A DISASTER because of obamanomics, beyond disaster, in ruins, God help us all, this idiot is a divisive bitter Chicago thug who's playing with the uber rich, beyonce, jaz z, tiger woods, getting his azz licked and kissed by idiot celebrities with nary a hint of logic or what the hell is going on beyond their little click of a world, and all of this initiated by the guilty self-loathers out there, aka the IDIOT voter, high price to pay indeed to assuage your white guilt ain't it, sad thing is, you ain't seen a damn thing yet, that's the fcuked up part!!!
oh and ah, you dirtbag libs and guilty whites, you might want to check out obama off teleprompter on youtube, without axelrod workin' his head and whispering in his ear on what to say, I can't get enough of it it's soooooooooooooooo funny!! that's what you voted for you rancid commie vermin! THAT's WHAT YOU VOTED FOR!!! 'nuff said!!!
Obama got the egonomy in the tank and HE is just happy where it is at.
Are you kidding...the recession is over????...what's in you glass......kool aid???
This arrogant and divider president elected by people like the black panthers are just to NO GOOD.
Just wait until BengahzObama shows up....he will hit Hillawry in the head.
Millions of out-of-U.S. jobs provide us with a large percentage of goods. That is why employment will not come back - it is gone forever, or at least until energy prices cause transportation of cheap labor goods to be non-economical.
The stock market is at record highs. Many many companies stock prices are at record highs. Many many companies scaled way back on employment and benefits during the past 5-10 years. Many many companies are operating at record or near record profits.
A large percent of our GDP has been off-shored - simple fact.
Do you really think you Tax and Print your way to prosperity? Can you really Borrow and Spend your way out of Debt? Obamanomics is a failed policy.
Obamanomics will not end well... We already are seeing the results... 17 trillion in debt (up 66%), trillion dollar deficits (2x-3x anything W had) after massive tax increases... Unemployment that only decreases because 8 million people are no longer counted... 47 million on Food Stamps (up 70%).... Disability up to 14 (75% increase). M2 Money supply up 71%. 43% of middle class wealth wiped out under Obama...
"57 states" is a Lazy, Inept, Arrogant, CORRUPT Imbecile!
Copyright © 2014 Microsoft. All rights reserved.
Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Morningstar Inc. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Morningstar Inc. Quotes delayed by up to 15 minutes, except where indicated otherwise. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by Morningstar Inc.
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market finished the Wednesday session on a modestly lower note, but it is worth mentioning today's retreat took place after six consecutive gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%) and S&P 500 (-0.2%) settled not far below their flat lines, while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.8%) lagged throughout the session.
Equity indices started the day in the red, with the Nasdaq showing early weakness as large cap tech names and biotechnology weighed. The technology ... More
More Market News
|There’s a problem getting this information right now. Please try again later.|
MUST-SEE ON MSN
- Video: Easy DIY smoked meats at home
A charcuterie master shares his process for cold-smoking meat at home.
- Jetpacks about to go mainstream
- Weird things covered by home insurance
- Bing: 70 percent of adults report 'digital eye strain'