'Dr. Doom' sees parallels to 1914 in Asia
Nouriel Roubini is struck by comparisons to 100 years ago when World War I broke out.
With many parts of the world gearing up to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the start of the first world war, Nouriel Roubini (pictured) has solidified his hold on the title "Dr. Doom" by suggesting parallels between 2014 and 1914.
There may be no Austro-Hungarian empire or Archduke Franz Ferdinand, but Roubini tweeted this from the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos Thursday:
"Many speakers compare 2014 to 1914 when WWI broke out & no one expected it. A black swan in the form of a war between China & Japan?"
He then tweeted some of the reasoning behind this train of thought.
"Echoes of 1914: backlash against globalization, gilded age of inequality, rising geopolitical tensions, ignoring tail risks"
While Roubini is renowned for his bubble warnings and doom scenarios, his concerns weren't drawn out of thin air, but rather taken mainly from the lips of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
According to reports from both The Financial Times and BBC, Abe said on Wednesday that China and Japan were in a "similar situation" to that of Britain and Germany ahead of World War I.
However, Reuters reported that Abe's top spokesman denied the Japanese leader meant war was possible or imminent, which is unthinkable for many.
Still, Abe said that China's increase in military spending was a source of instability in the region and he reiterated his calls for a military hotline to avert a conflict. In November, China tried to impose an air defense zone over a small collection of islands in the East China Sea, which the Japanese call the Senkaku Islands while the Chinese refer to them as Diaoyu.
Abe himself is a hawk. Back in December, he visited the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japan's wartime dead, including those who committed atrocities during the country's march across Asia during the World War II.
There are other areas of concern in the rest of the world for those seemingly keen to compare 2014 to 1914: the ongoing Syrian civil war and its ramifications for the Middle East, as well as the future of Iran's place in the international community.
Furthermore, the current protests in Kiev and Ukraine's pro-EU or pro-Russia dilemma raise questions over the rising power of Russia and how Western powers deal with this.
Yet Roubini also mentioned the twin problems of a "backlash against globalization" and a "gilded age of inequality." The latter has been a watchword at Davos this year and has become the key focus of President Barack Obama's final term in office. In a speech to a think-tank in Washington D.C. last month, Obama described it as the "defining issue of our time."
Perhaps 1914 isn't a good comparison, but rather 1848 and 1968 could be: the former a year of revolutions across Europe; the latter a year of socialist, communist and student protests in the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Italy and the USSR. Will 2014 be the year when there is a growing backlash against the prevailing status quo and rising income inequalities?
Of course, it is worth noting that the written history of World War I has come under much scrutiny in recent months, as politicians and historians debate over revisionist theories and nationalistic fervor.
As Joseph Nye, a former U.S. assistant secretary of defense, has written: "Among the lessons to be learned from the events of 1914 is to be wary of analysts wielding historical analogies, particularly if they have a whiff of inevitability.
"War is never inevitable, though the belief that it is can become one of its causes."
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We never solved the problem of $500-700Trillion in Scam Banking Derivatives plus we now have the FEDS sitting on over $4Trillion in Fake Money. Most Corporations have likely bought their own Stocks at Highs instead of investing in Workers and equipment. In the end, because of GREED, this current Form of Phony Capitalism will destroy everything it has created.
This one for you Dr Doom Stock quote of the Day Son says to Father Dad I am considering a career in Organized Crime !
Dad says Government or Private Sector ?? DIE BANK OF AMERICA DIE !
Oh, wait. I got confused.
I guess I would ask Roubini how he connects or views such other strife as Sudan, Iraq/US. Afghan/US, Iran/US, N.Korea/US, Russia/ with many of her neighbors, Syria; And Israel against everything Middle Eastern....And then all the instability in the N. African Nations..
Guess we just chuck that off to "Geopolitical Tensions."
That has never been true as Winners and losers are determined many times by Bought and Paid for Greedy, Selfish Politicians. The Wage Gap has moved from 40 to 1 to well over 400 to 1 as Global Poverty and Pollution is at Record Levels. But some idiots want you believe that Capitalism is Working.
"""To say nobody can predict the future is to put your limitations onto others. I can't predict the future but I can't say the same about everyone"""
I disagree. I think that anybody, and you, can predict the future. If you light a match and hold the flame under your newspaper, you're probably safe in predicting the result. When you see someone speeding down a snowy highway toward a red light, you're probably safe in predicting what's going to happen. If you see rusty tank of hazardous chemicals near a river, you're proabably safe in predicting what's going to happen. If you see rising income inequality....
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