Where Wall Street is placing its bets

Until now, Romney has been bankrolled by Wall Street. His top five contributors are people and organizations aligned with Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BAC) and Credit Suisse (CS), according to OpenSecrets.org.

But Obama has the momentum. The president raised $114 million in August, more than 40% more than he raised in July. Romney raised $111 million, about the same as he's raised each month this summer.

There are other signs that Wall Street is betting Obama now. LPL Financial's Wall Street Election index, which measures the stock performance of so-called Democrat- and Republican-friendly industries has swung strongly to the Democrats since June.

Intrade, a futures market set up for bettors looking to cash in on such probabilities, has Obama as a 67.8% favorite to reclaim the White House. Obama has seen a nearly 10-point gain since mid-June.

In a perhaps not-so-unrelated bit of news, Intrade predicts the year-end chances of the U.S. entering a recession at 7.35%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJIA) finishing about 13,000 at 75.8% and a country dropping out of the euro zone at 16.3% -- all of which are highs or close to highs for the year.

Separately, an unscientific CNBC poll of Wall Street pros published Sept. 12 gave Obama a nearly 2-to-1 chance of winning.

They're also reflective of something Huffington Post columnist (and former Wall Street Journal reporter) Mark Gongloff wrote Sept. 14: "It's called hedging your bets. It indicates that although Wall Street might grumble about an Obama victory, it also apparently doesn't expect all commerce to halt and all private industry to be immediately nationalized by the government upon the president's re-inauguration."

Moreover, Obama has been better to Wall Street than either would care to admit: low interest rates, expanded bailouts, monetary easing, watered-down regulations and a lack of prosecution for crisis-era misdeeds.

Would Romney be even kinder? Probably.

Will he win? I know where you can get great odds if you think so.

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