12/10/2010 8:21 PM ET|
Say goodbye to the bond bull market
As I noted at the outset of this article, I expect 2011 to contain some elements of the funding crisis I've been worrying about for some time now, as our bond market comes under considerable pressure. A weak dollar caused by two rounds of quantitative easing (plus potentially more money-printing) will pressure the dollar, and at some point that will increase the pressure on the bond market. Quite frankly, if the euro were not in so much trouble, the dollar would already be much weaker.
No more printing press for you!
As 2010 winds down, it is not possible to know precisely how all of this will play out. But it is important to be mindful of the fact that if bonds continue to sink in repudiation of (or despite) all the Fed's easing, then the markets will have de facto taken the printing press away from the Fed.
That will have ramifications not just for bonds, but for stocks as well.
I don't want to get too far ahead of myself, because at this point that "conclusion" is, in essence, just a theory, not an inevitability.
As longtime readers know, I am always early in worrying about troubles caused by bad policies. But if bonds' best days are over, then next year will certainly see some further developments toward our own funding crisis. And that won't be bullish for financial assets.
On the air
Last week, I participated in another interview with Eric King of King World News; he believes it might be my "best one ever." Interested readers can decide for themselves here.
This column is a synopsis of Bill Fleckenstein's daily column on his website, FleckensteinCapital.com, which he's been writing on the Internet since 1996. Click here to find Fleckenstein's most recent articles.
VIDEO ON MSN MONEY
Uncle Sam will give you a ton of positive information. We need a little of the negative side to balance things out.. Used car salesman never gives negative stories.
Assume everyone is only giving half the story. Please give me the other side.
Bill Gross agrees with you too. See his Pimco article November 2010.
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[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain near their flat lines as the final session of the week continues in quiet fashion. Interestingly, even though the key indices have spent the bulk of the trading day near their unchanged levels, the Treasury market has not behaved in the same fashion.
The 10-yr note currently trades at its lowest level of the session after a steady retreat. The benchmark 10-yr yield is now higher by seven basis points at 2.70%. It is worth mentioning that ... More
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