Economic revival boosts commodities

After a 3-month lull, prices of industrial materials like crude oil, copper, and tin, as well as agricultural goods, are moving higher.

By Anthony Mirhaydari Dec 3, 2012 3:04PM

 Soybean field copyright Corbis, SuperStockThroughout the fall, as Europe teetered, America's election created political uncertainty, and global economic growth slowed, the entire commodities complex caught a cold. The DB Commodities Tracking Fund (DBC) lost nearly 10% as crude oil, industrial metals, food stuffs, and precious metals all moved lower in unison.


Some of this had to do with a mark down in growth expectations and a decline in inflation expectations. A strong but short-lived pop in the U.S. dollar contributed as well.


But this is all reversing now as growth reaccelerates (despite the unresolved "fiscal cliff" here at home) and the dollar weakens -- setting the stage for what appears to be the start of a strong new uptrend. Here's why.


The move higher initially started with silver in early November, but precious metals have since fizzled out as more industrially focused materials -- such as crude oil and copper -- move higher. I'm also seeing very early signs of participation by agricultural goods, represented by the DB Agriculture Commodity Fund (DBA), pushing higher with the DBA pushing over its 50-day moving average for the first time since June.


To my eyes, I think we're seeing the dynamics change from being simply a reaction to the dollar's newfound weakness to a reflection of the return of real dynamism to the economy again.



You can see this in Monday's release of the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI, which shows global manufacturing activity stabilizing at a five-month high and very nearly returning to month-over-month growth. Production expanded in China for the first time in four months while expansion were also reported in Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam.


Here at home, manufacturing activity expanded at the best rate in six month thanks to an acceleration in new orders -- a sign that rebound is set to continue.



The jump in activity in China is notable since that country has been managing a slowdown since the middle of 2011 as it fought inflationary pressures. The fog finally appears to be lifting as, with inflation down, Beijing opens the credit taps and revives construction in new factories and infrastructure.



In response, I'm recommending the ProShares Ultra Crude Oil (UCO), which is already in my Edge Letter Sample Portfolio and carrying a gain of 4.4% since I added it on November 16. I'm also adding the DBA fund to the portfolio.


Disclosure: Anthony has recommended UCO and DBA to his clients.


Be sure to check out Anthony's new investment newsletter, the Edge, and his money management service, Mirhaydari Capital Management. A two-week free trial has been extended to MSN Money readers. Click the link above to sign up. Mirhaydari can be contacted at anthony@edgeletter.c​om and followed on Twitter at @EdgeLetter. You can view his current stock picks here. Feel free to comment below.



Dec 3, 2012 6:21PM
He means the printing press is driving up commodity prices.... and he is right....

The idiot FED is printing $480/family/month with it's QEIII.  Does anyone doubt this will effect prices of everything?  Only left wing loons thing it won't....

Buy Gold, Silver, guns and ammo, invest overseas...  The democrat economic Malaise will continue...
Dec 3, 2012 8:42PM
This has very little to do with the economy "picking up". Ben Bernanke is introducing us to a new world. One where infinite money exists but resources are finite.
Dec 4, 2012 7:31AM

It will be ammusing to see all these younger people get hammered by these Jimmy Carter policies.  I just hope when this Imbecile Obama is gone we have a Reagan to straighten out his mess...


Stagflation here we come...

Dec 4, 2012 3:29AM
avatar all, Keep an eye on Gold tomorrow, along with U$D dollar and oil..


There may be some opportunities on Goldminers or other Invest. instruments.

I'm looking real close now...

Dec 4, 2012 1:18AM
The tail end of it is probably, Ms. Ugly or Inflation, with a twist of Drought.  A Very Dry cocktail.?
Dec 4, 2012 1:13AM

C'mon guys.....I don't even have to read the Article...The HEADLINE says it all...


Anytime the Economy kicks up or the Recovery shows movement FORWARD...


These and many other items get a LIFT....Anthony is probably correct..

I thought you guys were investors, where the hell have you been OR what TV show have you been watching for the last 8-10 years...Actually much longer.

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