Whole Foods' freshness starting to wilt
Has the big money already been made in the organic marketplace?
By Ken Shreve
Whole Foods Market (WFM) has been one of the market's great success stories since its initial public offering in January 1992. But since the start of the bull market in March 2009, the stock has surged 700%. This prompts a question: Has the big money already been made?
Whole Foods reports fiscal-fourth-quarter earnings after the close Wednesday. The consensus estimate calls for profit of 60 cents a share, up 43% from a year ago. Sales are expected to rise 24% to $2.9 billion -- nice acceleration from 14% year-over-year growth in the second quarter.
Three months ago, fiscal third-quarter profit rose 26% from the year prior to 63 cents a share. Sales rose 14% to $2.7 billion. Same-store sales in the quarter rose an impressive 8.2%.
As of Oct. 26, the company operated 339 natural and organic food supermarkets in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. It opened nine in the third quarter and is expected to open seven in the fourth, for a total of 25 in fiscal 2012.
There's no reason to think Whole Foods won't deliver another exceptional quarter of growth, but whether or not it will be enough to boost the stock remains to be seen. After a massive price gains, WFM is starting to look long in the tooth.
Keep in mind that major averages remain in a distribution phase -- not an easy environment for high-multiple stocks like Whole Foods to make headway. Whole Foods currently trades at 42 times trailing earnings and 34 times forward earnings.
While Whole Foods' huge price in recent years makes it a much riskier buy at current levels, competitor The Fresh Market (TFM) could still be in the early stages of a move. It's a much younger company, still in the early growth stages, after its IPO in November 2010 at $22.
As of July 29, the upscale specialty grocery retailer operated 121 stores in 24 states in the United States. Most of its locations are located east of the Mississippi, so there's plenty of room for expansion, particularly in California.
In August, the company reported profit of 28 cents a share, up 27% from the year before. Sales increased 21% to $313 million. Same-store sales rose 8%. It opened five new locations in the quarter with plans to open 14 to 16 new stores in fiscal 2012. Earnings are due November 28 before the open. Analysts are looking for profit of 26 cents a share, up 37% from a year ago with sales up 21% to $318.1 million.
Recent price and volume trends in The Fresh Market look pretty good. It's been consolidating gains since late August and is back above its 50-day simple moving average, currently working on the right side of a base. It's climbed to within 7% of its all-time high.
Now that the election has passed, it's not out of the question the market could flash a buy signal soon. If it does, a fast-growing, new issue with solid institutional sponsorship like The Fresh Market could outperform.
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They are simply overpriced. I go to Tunnies in Coral Srings, here in florida, for the exact same products that I use to purchase at Whole Foods and save on the average 25 to 30%. Feel like a fool for all the years I paid that premium price. As a "Heath Nut" I must have wasted literally many
thousands of dollars. Everyone should do their pricing homework.
Grow your own, home can, sun dry and/or freeze.
Not cheap, just cheaper than stores.
It taste better too.
Whole foods has always been overprice and really not that good. Bought shellfish and it was bad.
That right there will destroy your health in the long run.
Seven dollar lemonade? Come on!
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