Can stocks keep rising?

Lower volatility and stronger economic data set the stage for additional gains. But there are likely to be bumps along the way.

By Anthony Mirhaydari Aug 16, 2011 3:06PM

The crazy crisis environment of the past few weeks has calmed somewhat. A sense of normalcy is returning. Stocks are up more than 8% off their lows. Volatility continues to be drawn out of the system like snake venom from a wound. Emotions like fear and panic are fading, giving way to a more reasoned approach.

 

Even the economic data are beginning to surprise investors to the upside again. Industrial production in July jumped 0.9% vs. the consensus estimate of 0.5%. June's result was also revised upward. Manufacturing is coming on strong, thanks to a rebound in auto production. Other positive data points include a drop in jobless claims, a rise in labor income and an increase in loan growth as credit standards are eased.

 

Nerves are still raw, however. Witness Tuesday's market drop, driven by renewed concerns over the eurozone. For investors, the question is: Now what?

 

 

From a technical perspective, the drop in volatility -- represented by the VIX in the chart above, dubbed Wall Street's "fear gauge" -- is an important antecedent for any sustained medium-term uptrend. Drops in the VIX from panic conditions, once confirmed by the crossover in the stochastic indicator (middle pane) tend to continue for at least a few weeks. I define panic as a surge in the VIX over its upper Bollinger Band (gray shading).

 

Even if the market's flight path has an upward trajectory, that doesn't mean there won't be some turbulence. The rally out of the June low -- and the accompanying drop in the VIX -- masked a double-dip retest of the low.

 

The takeaway here is that stocks have the impetus and the momentum needed to push higher. But I can't promise it will be a smooth ride.

 


For investors, I recommend continuing to focus stocks and sectors showing relative strength against the overall market. The one stock I recommended last week, asset protection services provider Mistras Group (MG), is a perfect example of this. Shares are up more than 10.5% since last Wednesday as it breaks out of its multi-month consolidation range.

 

You can follow Mistras, as well as the rest of my recommendations, on my Edge Letter sample portfolio here. I found Mistras with the help of technical screens developed with Fidelity's Wealth Lab Pro back-testing tools, which you can find here. (Editor's note: Fidelity sponsors the Investor Pro section on MSN Money.)

 

Disclosure: Anthony has recommended MG to his newsletter subscribers.

 

Check out Anthony's new investment advisory service The Edge. A two-week free trial has been extended to MSN Money readers. Click here to sign up.

 

The author can be contacted at anthony@edgeletter.com and followed on Twitter at @EdgeLetter. You can view his current stock picks here. Feel free to comment below.

 

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

8Comments
Aug 16, 2011 3:28PM
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Can stocks keep rising? Absolutely. As long as the Federal Reserve keeps buying them.

Aug 16, 2011 4:05PM
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This is why there is so much distrust in the market and market pundits. Just yesterday in the market week ahead article, every prognosticator on there was warning of the impending drop in the market. What a bunch of Black Sheep..... 
Aug 17, 2011 8:09AM
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Electric car fan --

 

That statement makes no sense...there are millions of hard working Americans that have much of the life savings and retirement funds in the stock market. Most of them are NOT rich.

 

That progressive propaganda about let's go after the rich...it's about time they pay their share! That is pure crap!  What about the 50% of Americans that pay nothing...all they do is take, take and take more! That my fellow Americans is the core of our problems in this country and the world. People over the last 100 years have been told that the government owes them a living...the result is a world of people that are irresponsible, lazy and unproductive with their lives.

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Not even the government statistics are trustworthy anymore. They will be revised up or down in a month or two to manipulate the markets or  upcoming elections. Showing us graphs and trends and reaching any rational conclusions is absurd. Admit the investment experts in the media just throw darts at a board.
Aug 17, 2011 7:00AM
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the milisecond theres good news the speculators come out from under there rocks and run up gas therby killing the said good news. how can the economy ever have a speck of a chance of recovery when there is a built in defeat by paying futures prices for gas for a future that does not come to pass because of the very speculating itself
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Hmmm,

There are now more people taking money out of the stock market - retired baby boomers people raiding their 401k's state and local goverments raiding their pension plan funds; then there are people putting money into the market minimum wagers whose 401k pension plan is on automatic pilot.

Right now only when Bernanke releases money to the Wall Street bankers and they throw the money into the market to show an increase is the market going up. 

Sooner or later even the Federal Reserve will not be able to print enough money. 

Buzz Bernake says "Print money to infinity and beyond" however reality is going to catch up with him sooner rather than later.
Aug 17, 2011 12:43PM
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   Can stocks keep rising? Sure. Why not?  With large scale automated trading the banks and major financial institutions can make the stock market go up , down , sideways- whatever they want.
Aug 17, 2011 7:03AM
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the only thing that would make me personly jump for glee is if all of wall street goes up in flames and burns every greedy bastard in there
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