Over the past few months, U.S. Treasury bonds have defied the naysayers and pushed to levels not seen since last October. This came as a surprise to many people, especially since the government has already hit the debt ceiling and three major credit rating agencies have threatened to downgrade the U.S. credit rating if Washington fails to act as technical default looms in August.

The rise was driven by an increase in demand for haven assets as the economy hit another soft patch. Other factors included the European debt crisis, stabilization in the U.S. dollar and a whiff of disinflation as Wall Street marked down growth expectations.

But now, the naysayers look ready for their time in the sun as risk appetites rebound and the economy looks ready to re-accelerate and surprise newly pessimistic investors. And that means it's time to bet against the U.S. government by betting against its bonds. Here's why.

For sure, there are plenty of reasons to think T-bonds will head lower. My last two blog posts have outlined how the Fed's stealth stimulus will keep real rates low and give the economy a small push in the short run. Although the stealth stimulus should support U.S. equity prices, the same cannot be said for its effects on Treasurys.

The end of the $600 billion money-printing operation, bubbling inflation pressures and the government's struggles with the debt ceiling are the three main reasons Treasurys are set for a decline in the coming weeks. Currency effects from a strengthening euro, due to interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank, will also weigh on T-bonds.

The Fed will end most of its purchases of Treasurys this month as QE2 ends. This will result in a dip in demand, ultimately reducing prices in the open market. Without the Fed's support, it will take time for banks and foreign investors to fill the void in demand. With a QE3 off the table, look for prices to drop until the market is able to correct for this.

Societe Generale economist Aneta Markowska worries that Treasury auctions will become more volatile as the Fed steps back -- causing investors to demand higher yields in exchange for the added risk. The chart above shows the task that lies ahead for the market as it makes up for the lost buying power of QE2.

While investors have been able to prepare for the end of QE2, the problem with inflation has only recently crept back into the picture. With the Fed's stealth stimulus keeping real rates in negative territory, inflationary pressures will only build as growth revs up again. This is bad news for bondholders, as inflation erodes away the value of future interest and principle payments. 

Finally, with Democrats and Republicans still far apart on the actions needed to quell the debt problem, it's likely that the Treasury will come very close to its Aug. 2 deadline. The two parties ran the clock out back in April on the 2011 budget, which resulted in a short shutdown of the government. Similar brinkmanship is likely to seen again. 

Tom McClellan of the McClellan Market Report is beginning to see a shift in sentiment among investors as they begin to discount all of these factors. Right now, commercial traders (the "smart money") are moving into their most negative stance on T-bonds since the highs seen last fall. At the same time, retail investors have flooded into T-bond ETFs like the iShares 7-10 Year T-Bond ETF (IEF) at a pace normally seen near meaningful tops for Treasury prices.

Technically, a breakdown seems to be in motion now after a poor 30-year bond auction on Thursday. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has formed a "bearish engulfing" pattern and looks ready to head lower.

I've recommended my newsletter subscribers take advantage with the leveraged Proshares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT), which returns twice the inverse daily return of long-term Treasury bonds and was selected with the help of technical screens developed with Fidelity's Wealth Lab Pro back testing toolset which you can find here. (Editor's note: Fidelity sponsors the Investor Pro section on MSN Money.)

Disclosure: Anthony has recommended TBT to his newsletter subscribers.

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The author can be contacted at anthony@edgeletter.c​om and followed on Twitter at @EdgeLetter. Feel free to comment below.