10/9/2012 7:24 PM ET|
Stocks for an Obama or Romney win
Health care: An Obama win is key
For obvious reasons, the election outcome is going to have a big impact on health care stocks. That's because "Obamacare," or the Affordable Care Act, brings huge changes to health care, creating many obvious winners, including insurers and hospitals.
Hospitals gain because Obamacare would extend health insurance to tens of millions of people who are not currently covered. That would help hospitals a lot by lowering their bad-debt burden, points out Ron Sloan, the portfolio manager of the Invesco Charter Fund (CHTRX). Most health insurers would gain simply because they'd have a lot more customers, says Sloan. "The whole idea of the health care act is to push another 30 million to 40 million people through the system," he says.
Companies that stand to benefit include HCA (HCA), the nation's largest hospital operator, Tenet Healthcare (THC) and Coventry Health Care (CVH). Insurers that would benefit include Aetna (AET), Humana (HUM), UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and WellPoint (WLP).
Since Romney has vowed to roll back Obamacare, and the election race is so tight, the stocks of these companies haven't fully priced in the potential gains under Obama. "A Romney victory would be a negative for the group, because it adds uncertainty," says McLaughlin. "For the group, it would be, 'Oh no, here we go again.'"
Indeed, this explains why many of the stocks above fell after the first presidential debate, which seemed to go to Romney. "Should Mitt Romney take the White House and Republicans win the Senate, full Affordable Care Act repeal will almost certainly be on," says Thomas Carroll, a health care sector analyst with Stifel Nicolaus. Even if Romney fails to repeal all of Obamacare, he could block much of it, points out Wells Fargo analyst Gary Lieberman.
Look for these stocks to rally -- and continue to do well -- in an Obama victory.
Energy: Drill, baby, drill
If Romney wins, expect solid gains for energy companies, as well as the companies that help with drilling, exploration and pipelines, says Cetera Financial Group. Analysts cite three main reasons.
First, Romney would likely give states more power to regulate exploration and production on their own turf and on federal lands inside their borders, says Wells Fargo analyst Gordon Douthat. He'd also likely limit the power of the Environmental Protection Agency to restrict production. "I think there is going to be a big push under a Romney administration to open up access to other parts of the country," says John Derrick, the director of research for U.S. Global Investors.
This would directly benefit energy producers that are pure plays on U.S. production, he says. One Derrick likes is Gulfport Energy (GPOR), which operates mainly on the Louisiana Gulf Coast and in Texas, Colorado and eastern Ohio. Two other companies that fit this theme are Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and Continental Resources (CLR), which do all, or most, of their production in the U.S., says Baird Investment Management's McLaughlin.
Second, Romney would likely take steps to increase deep-water drilling off U.S. coasts, says McLaughlin. This would be good for Noble (NE) and Ensco (ESV), which provide offshore drilling services. It would also help Oceaneering International (OII), which provides remotely operated submersible vehicles and other services for offshore drilling.
Third, Romney would likely approve the Keystone XL pipeline, says Sloan, of the Invesco Charter Fund. The pipeline would transport unrefined crude from the Athabasca oil sands region in Alberta, Canada, to refineries in Illinois and along the Gulf Coast of Texas. Pipeline approval would benefit engineering and construction companies Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) and Shaw Group (SHAW).
The shares of coal companies like Arch Coal (ACI), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR), Consol Energy (CNX) and Peabody Energy (BTU) bounced up after last week's presidential debate because of positive comments from Romney. "I like coal. I'm going to make sure we can continue to burn clean coal," he said.
But it's not clear that a Romney win would really help these companies, since one of their biggest problems is the low price of natural gas, which has companies switching from coal. "Coal's real problem is natural gas prices," says Sloan, of the Invesco Charter Fund. Romney can't change that.
A Romney victory would be bad news for green energy companies like First Solar (FSLR), says Derrick, because Romney would roll back federal support for this sector.
Defense stocks: Big winners in a Romney victory
Military spending is another key area where the two candidates disagree sharply. Romney says he won't cut defense spending. He's touted a plan to devote 4% of gross domestic product to military spending, says Wells Fargo analyst Sam Pearlstein. In contrast, Obama is likely to cut military spending to hit deficit-reduction targets.
Lockheed Martin is the world's largest defense contractor, with a broad range of products, including the F-35 fighter jet, the C-130 Hercules and the C-5 Galaxy aircraft, missiles and surveillance systems. Northrop Grumman makes drones, manned aircraft and intelligence and surveillance systems. Raytheon supplies radars, sensors, communication equipment and cybersecurity products.
Morningstar's Rick Tauber has a high rating -- four stars out of five -- on a lesser-known defense company called SAIC (SAI). It supplies products used in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, cybersecurity and logistics. These are all high-priority and high-growth areas of defense. This suggests SAIC would do well if Romney wins but also hold up well in a second term for Obama.
VIDEO ON MSN MONEY
You had that from January 5th 2007 until January of 2011 and what did we accomplish? $16 trillion dollar deficit, 5 million loss in employed citizens, 43 months of 8.1% or higher unemployment, 23 million unemployed or underemployed citizens, 12 million illegal immigrants, and a health care bill "we have to pass to find out what is inside". Nice. Yet we can't be bothered to balance the budget or even pass one? The whole lot of them should be tossed in the next two election cycles (both parties) and new blood hired.
What's best for them? How about legislators who work for us for a change instead of for themselves?
Economy has done better historically under Democrats....................
Where do you people get your information ?
Breaking News - CNN, MSNBC, NBC and CBS have not yet confirmed the story, but it is believed by many that George W Bush is not running for President.
Why is the perception that Republicans are the main culprits of war mongering?
World War 1 - President Woodrow Wilson, Democrat
World War 2 - President Franklin Roosevelt, Democrat
Korean War - President Harry S. Truman, Democrat
Viet Nam - President John F. Kennedy, Democrat - Lyndon Johnson, Democrat
Desert Storm - President George H. Bush, Republican
Iraq - President George W. Bush, Republican
Washington Examiner -
Media Loved Obama to Death.
On Sept. 12, the day after mobs ransacked American embassies, burned the flag and Obama in effigy, and killed one Marine, two Navy SEALs, and one ambassador, NBC's Chuck Todd took to the air almost in shock and seemingly tearful, because Romney critiqued an official in Cairo who apologized for provoking the riots, citing a barely-seen YouTube video as the pretext for the violence. Voice shaking, he channeled the shock on the part of the White House (which later itself condemned the apology).
For days after, Romney's "mistake" was the story. On Sunday, after a week in which Obama was burned in effigy on several continents and his Middle Eastern policy exposed as a failure, he lost his best (perhaps his sole) campaign issue, and questions were raised about criminal negligence. But Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post said that Mitt Romney had had "the worst week in Washington." Obama's failures had turned out to hurt Romney, most of the press corps agreed.
Obama had seen that his friends would protect him, and so he believed he could mail it in Wednesday, but this was the venue that could not be spun. No filter. No edits. No choosing what to put in or leave out. No shaping of the story. Just the story itself, rolled out in real time, sans narration, before 70 million American voters, undoing six years of hype and hysterics. It revealed one small, not all that keen academic, having been inflated by the narrators beyond all recognition, dissolving before everyone's eyes.
THE MAIN STORY SHOULD BE OBAMA LIED ABOUT LIBYA!
COVER UP! AMERICAN FREEDOM AND SECURITY AS RISK!
you liberals worried about big bird and obama deathcare and
soylandra and green energy should focus on more important things!
stupid obama leeches worried about cell phones and obama money!
OBAMA hasn't brought any charges on any wall street banks or people
but he's been tough on wall street? yeah he took their money!
when Bush left office the gas costs half of what it costs today??
when Bush left office the deficit was 6 trillion less than what it was today?
when Bush left office unemployment was a little over 6%
I'll take those numbers today.
The Dow has fallen below the 20 day moving average, a move it has been trying to make since Aug 30. It has been fickle due to the Feds and the result of the debate, giving it a temporary shot in the arm. It wants to correct like it should and maybe now it has the momemtum to do so.
If thats true, it will happen just in time for the election which will not be a good sign for Obama, but will be a plus for Romney. The Trend is still a BUY, but the indicators are turning negative and of course anything can happen at any time, no guarantees of any sort.
We'll just have to see how this plays out.
Obama is leading us to a path of destruction, and another four years of Obama and American as we once knew it will not be recognized!
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