What's ahead for the stock market
Earnings from Alcoa, GE, Google and JPMorgan Chase will guide investors. Can the Dow close above 11,000?
Updated: 10:30 p.m. ET, April 11
If you thought this past week was a little quiet, it was -- until the last 30 minutes of trading on Friday. And then the buying kicked in that pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) to 11,000.98 at 3:54 p.m. ET -- the first time the blue chips had pierced 11,000 since Sept. 29, 2008.
The Dow couldn't hold 11,000 on the day, but it did finish up 70 points to 10,997 and ended the week up 0.64%. It was the sixth straight weekly gain for the stock market.
The fun really begins in the coming week. The first-quarter earnings season cranks up with heavyweight reports due from five Dow components: Alcoa (AA), Intel (INTC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and General Electric (GE). And Google (GOOG), too.
So, what to expect? Very strong earnings and possibly better guidance as the economic recovery starts to accelerate. And maybe higher stock prices.
Even if the Dow couldn't hold 11,000, the blue chips had their best close since Sept. 26, 2008. So did the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX). And the 17-point gain for the Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) brought it to 2,454, its highest close since June 19, 2008.
In addition to the Dow's 0.64% gain for the week, the S&P 500 was up 1.4% and the Nasdaq up 2.1%.
With members of the European Union agreeing to a financial rescue line to Greece on Sunday, offering the country up to $40 billion in aid to meet its debt obligations, the good feelings from Friday should carry over to Monday.
Article continues below.
Can the market get past 11,000?
Regardless of possible resolution of the Greek uncertainty, Friday's finish left investors with this question: How strong a resistance point will Dow 11,000 be (or for that matter, 1,200 on the S&P 500)? The market has been flirting with the two levels since around March 22.
The answer won't come simply by watching indexes. It will come with the market reaction to the earnings that will come in.
To be sure, many analysts believe the market is long overdue for a 5% to 10% correction. There's even talk of a 20% correction, which would bring the Dow back to 8,800.
On MSN Money's Top Stocks blog: Louis Navellier flatly wrote he saw the big rally since 2009 ending soon. "Right now," he wrote, "the amazing improvements for most stocks compared with 2009 are masking the fact that things are just less bad."
| Markets for the week | ||||||||||||
| 4/9/2010 | 4/1/2010 | % chg. | YTD chg. | |||||||||
| Dow industrials | 10,997.35 | 10,927.07 | 0.6% | 5.5% | ||||||||
| S&P 500 | 1,194.37 | 1,178.10 | 1.4% | 7.1% | ||||||||
| Nasdaq | 2,454.05 | 2,402.58 | 2.1% | 8.1% | ||||||||
| Russell 2000 | 702.95 | 683.98 | 2.8% | 12.4% | ||||||||
| Crude oil | $84.92 | $84.87 | 0.1% | 7.0% | ||||||||
| (per barrel) | ||||||||||||
| U.S. Dollar Index | 81.24 | 81.44 | -0.2% | 3.9% | ||||||||
| 10-yr. Treasury | 3.89% | 3.94% | -1.3% | 1.2% | ||||||||
| Gold | $1,161.90 | $1,126.10 | 3.1% | 6.0% | ||||||||
| (per troy ounce) | ||||||||||||
While there's concern about stocks, Most analysts are bullish about earnings because of indications the job market is starting (but only starting) to come back. Thursday's sales reports from retailers were also robust, especially high-end retailers like Tiffany (TIF), analyst Brian Sozzi of Wall Street Strategies told Reuters.
And, for those who like esoteric indicators, rail-car loadings are now running solidly above year-ago levels. But they're still below 2008 levels, according to data from the Association of American Railroads and ASI/Transmatch, which drills into the railroads' data.
Even shipments of lumber and crushed stone, critical elements in construction, are starting to perk up.
Thomson Reuters is expecting earnings for the S&P 500 to rise some 37% to about $160 billion from a year ago, led by improved results for banks, materials producers and consumer discretionary stocks such as Ford Motor (F) and others.
There will be real gains in revenue -- 10% overall -- with energy, materials and technology companies enjoying the biggest gains overall.
There haven't been many earnings warnings, especially compared with a year ago, Thomson Reuters says. The ratio of negative warnings to positive warnings is 1.2-to-1, down from 1.3-to-1 a year ago and lower than the long-term average of 2-to-1.
So, here's who reports next week:
Monday: Alcoa is the marquee report, coming after the close. The aluminum maker is expected to report 10 cents a share in earnings, up from a loss of 60 cents a year ago. Revenue is supposed to jump 25% to $5.2 billion. The stock was downgraded Friday.
Tuesday: Railroad CSX (CSX), industrial supplies distributor Fastenal (FAST) and Intel. Intel has said it sees a strong quarter. Analysts agree, forecasting a 37% increase in revenue to $9.82 billion and earnings per share of 38 cents, up 245% from a year ago. Shares are up 10%, 10th-best among the 30 Dow stocks.
Wednesday: JPMorgan is expected to report 63 cents a share in earnings, up from 40 cents a year ago. But watch to see if it responds to a Wall Street Journal report that banks routinely unload lots of debt for short periods of time at the end of the quarter to reduce their risk levels.
Thursday: Google, which reports after the close, has had a tricky year. Its decision to defy China over censorship issues has hit the stock; shares are down 8.7% this year. So, there are lots of questions: How does it see the China situation? How is its Android phone performing? Also reporting: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Krispy Kreme (KKD) and mining giant Rio Tinto (RTP).
Friday: Bank of America and GE report before the open. Shares of both companies are among the strongest Dow stocks, up 22%-plus this year. This will be B of A's first quarter under the leadership of Brian Moynihan, who succeeded Ken Lewis as CEO in January. The company is expected to report 9 cents a share in earnings, down from 17 cents a year ago. The stock finished Friday at $18.59, up 23% for the year and 492% from its March 2009 low. Analyst Dick Bove of Rochdale Securities thinks Bank of America could be worth $53 a share if broken up.
With General Electric, the question is whether its huge finance business has really turned the corner. Analysts are starting to come around on the industrial giant. The stock is up 22% this year to $18.52.
As busy as the week ahead sounds, the following week gets a lot busier.
A veritable flood that includes reports from IBM (IBM), Coca-Cola (KO), Apple (AAPL), Goldman Sachs (GS), Boeing (BA), McDonald's (MCD), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Schlumberger (SLB).
A series of important economic reports
The first week or so of any month is relatively quiet, except for the big jobs report.
Next week, like earnings, has a lot of market-moving news on tap. Here's what to watch:
Consumer Price Index, due Wednesday. Inflation is supposed to be low. But watch out for rising energy prices in March.
Retail sales for March, due Wednesday. The consensus estimate is for a 1.1% gain. "Households are spending more and saving less in anticipation of an improving economy," says IHS Global Insight. The economic research firm sees sales up 1.2% in March, led by improving auto sales.
Industrial production for March, due Thursday. Look for 0.6% improvement in March over February. Partly it's the economy's fault. And partly it's because there weren't any big winter storms.
Housing starts and building permits for March, due Friday. Nobody expects big gains, but the consensus is for starts to come in at a seasonally adjusted 610,000 units, up from February's 575,000. Permits, the less sexy but more important of the two numbers, are expected to be 626,000, down from February's 627,000 rate.
terrybr...you come across like someone with zero business acumen and my guess is you do not even know what a balance sheet is much less how to read one....when the US debt is downgraded and the dollar is totally devalued which is where we are headed then you may get it that more debt and more entitlement programs is not what this country needs right now...we need leadership with some fiscal responsibility. Pretty speeches will not fix this mess we are in.
You seem to do nothing but jump from article to article and call names and rail against the Republicans but you seem to not have much constructive to say nor a viewpoint that has any argument good or otherwise. I cannot decide if you really believe some of the venom you spew and you are for real or you just love to stir the pot. ?????
clearsee...I have a different view of things but you made some good points as well...The healthcare bill is not healthcare reform which we desperately need but another entitlement program shifting those who can afford healthcare to pay for those who cannot. Also we have no idea what it will really cost the taxpayers...the CBO missed by a long shot on what medicare would cost long term. The financial burden it will place on companies will cost jobs instead of create them and there is already proof of that. As a former small business owner I can tell you it will hurt employment.
Yes Bush started the bailout but under a Democratic controlled Congress and got McCain and Obama's buy in as he was on his way out and the election had not happened yet. Bush made some bad choices and I think him a bad President overall but he was also dealt a bad hand by the out of control deregulated financial services industry after the repeal of Glass-Stegal and 9/11 which hit soon after he was in office. Barney Frank and Chris Dodd are the biggest sinners in Congress in my book helping to create the housing crisis....do some research....and this was done under Clinton. I think Bush was the lesser of 2 bad choices when he ran.
Unfortunately for all people with homes heading for foreclosure or who have lost their homes, the housing bailout has not turned out to help the ones it should have and the banks are now blatantly refusing to do their part so that industry has never really been dealt with...Obama seems to think that TARP is his slush fund to do with as he pleases. He is making rhetoric now as elections draw near about helping homeowners but he is over a year in office and still failing miserably on that front. His number one focus should be unemployment which would in turn stop the foreclosures but he has been focused on the wrong things for over a year. Yes it was a mess when he arrived and he has made it worse by focusing on the wrong things....we are already at real unemployment between 17 and 20% and many are under employed. All the experts I have heard and even one in the Obama administration say it will take 3 to 5 years to get unemployment down to acceptable numbers. Obama has zero experience to run a company much less to run the largest economy in the world. The national debt has tripled over what Bush took 8 years to do and Obama is in office a little over a year.
What we need more than anything is a President who can read a balance sheet and understands business and who shows tremendous fiscal responsibility...someone with skills like Jack Welch or John Chambers who have run mega size companies very successfully....the problem is those kinds of people would not have the President's job because there is so much corruption and buying of favors in government you cannot get anything done.
Thanks for letting me get on my soapbox.
I would suspect that the U$D will fall back in the mid 70's ?
Seems inevitable to me, but I would hardly blame Bambi.
In most of the first half of 2008 it was trading in the low 70's and might have touched 70 on some intradays; WHO do we blame then ? Shrub?
One of my investment oddities is tracking world currencies,oil,fuel(gas) gold and other PGM's, along with indices that are important to me. Have for several years.
With manipulation as it is, it's becomes harder to put the blame on any one specific. BUT, I think the next hot reality show should be,"Printing presses gone Wild".
I'm very curious, when did these TEE-**** become moderate democrats, did I miss some news casts or are or are the republicans trying trying to bu!!sh!! us again ?
I don't believe we have ever had total employment in this country, even during World War 2 ?? Maybe some time in our past? You all tell me. I thought even during the "good times", it was about 2.5-3.5%. Though we have a long ways to go,employment does seem to be picking-up. That is a non-surprise issue,because we have been warned repeatly and history will attest to the fact: That jobs during a hard recession are the last to recover.
That is not a comforting thought for any of you still out of work,but hang in there, I'm pulling for you and have been spending to help improve our overall economy.
Another thing I've noticed quite a bit is many unemployed are working off the clock or under the table. I somewhat understand this mindset, but in the long run it will drag our recession out much longer. Good luck anyway.
When most jobs do return? My worst fear is of an overall lower wage average and way less benefits. But, then again we have asked for it, because most commenters that post(90-95%) are anti-union,against propping up our manufacturing base,etc,etc.
So now we are left with higher paid government workers, that includes teachers and an overall bloated federal and state governments that are going completely broke at the average non-working taxpayer's expense.
Very difficult to put a smiley face on this !
Hey moneyee & sbpa,
And those like you who elected GWBush twice keep showing your lack of understanding of what happened and what is going on. GW Bush even after the dot com bust and after other minor bubbles popped removed regulators teeth which aided our current problems. Look at what GW Bush did one war against a country with no WMDs, cost his party the white house, senate, house of rep, cost us allies, bad energy policies ( $4+ gas anyone?), no more surplus, highest cost of raw materials, and financial crash (started in 2007) leading to the worst recession to date. Yeah blame the person trying to fix the situation for not being able to fix things that took at least 8 yrs to setup with globalization adding to our problems. Even GW Bush saw that if the government did not intervene we would be looking at unemployment in the mid 20's, all the analysts agreed to this. Bush started the bailout remember, and had the auto bailout expire on Obama's first day (set-up). If Obama did not sign to extend the auto bailout he would be branded un-American and if he did sign it he would be a big spender.
Obama has done his best with what was given (a hot mess). If he had let all the failures happen 9.7 % unemployment would be 25% instead. Those hear that are so negative are short on understanding on how money is circulated to businesses and people. Banks lend to small and mid size businesses so they can buy material, equip, make payroll (this is how avg joes get paid), & etc. If banks stop lending the govenment would have to become the biggest bank ever (very big gov for those who hate that) to fill the void else bailout the banks and become a major owner (lesser of 2 evils) to keep money flowing. Most Americans have no savings (70%) and with money not flowing say "Hello" to a new third world country. Big business employs a lot of people directly & indirectly through subing out work (small & mid size businesses). If you punish Big Biz too much u hurt small & mid.
The above is a water down example of why Bush and Obama did the various bailouts.
The housing bailout was to address local government needs and existing homeowners. With property values dropping and some walking away from their homes local governments were looking at bigger budget shortfalls meaning more pot holes, less police, and etc the bailout helped offset some of the losses. existing homeowners benefit because less vacant homes mean less crime (crime is going to rise but not as much) and not as worse poperty values.
The health care reform to me is just good. It says to me "We pay for health care we should get health care.". Not loop holes that take it away when we need it most.
The last time the budget was balanced was by a Democrat and people were saying not in our lifetime (it took 6yrs). This country has operated just fine with the budget not being balanced before and can do so again, stop the scare tactics.
When you think about our current country situation remember: Destruction is easy salvaging and rebuilding is hard (Obama is doing the hard part).
God Bless
Stocks were cheap last year, easy money. Most of us probably didn't take advantage of this. This bump down, as difficult as it has been has created one of the greatest opportunities for a lot of people to get in. A fire sale, if you like. Whether this thing corrects or not, it will still go down in history as one of the great market runs. I could be mad at Wall Street, but I've benefited, I home trading, in my underwear, 2,000 miles away.
How is that bad? I'm a average American.
Don't let your fear rule your decisions, find a way to invest in something, even if it is just land. Because the wealthy are busy taking advantage of this (unfortunate) downturn. They know a bargain, when they see one.
It's taken me a while to figure this out, wealth is not a dollar amount. It's a mindset, a level of confidence in your decisions propelling you forward, instead of back. A level of freedom, to participate in life fully.
In the end, all the "stuff", get's dispersed, fought over, or given away to good will. The whole thing is just a game anyway.
Enjoy the ride.
LMAO. While I don't always see eye to eye with your posts, I do always enjoy your "unhooked" point of view. We need many more Americans to unhook from their party line voting. In an almost 70% Republican county in Ohio I am starting to see a lot of "Ron Paul 2012" bumper stickers (a good sign) and also hearing that the mainstream Republican party is starting to back away from Palin and Gingrich (thank God).
Rush is a cool guy to know though. In a pinch, he can hook you up with some primo painkillers. Newt can get you a great deal on slightly used National Debt Clocks. And of course Sarah can get you booked on a polar bear safari with a clear view of Russia across the straight so you can be an instant foreign policy expert ready to lead the free world!
With this nice weather, maybe the crowd is out training in the backwoods of Michigan for the coming wave of patriotic surprise attacks on the healthcare reform targets. Keep 'em on the their toes mfwic.
Updated: 10:30 p.m. ET, April 11
If you thought this past week was a little quiet, it was -- until the last 30 minutes of trading on Friday. And then the buying kicked in that pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) to 11,000.98 at 3:54 p.m. ET -- the first time the blue chips had pierced 11,000 since Sept. 29, 2008.
The Dow couldn't hold 11,000 on the day, but it did finish up 70 points to 10,997 and ended the week up 0.64%. It was the sixth straight weekly gain for the stock market.
The fun really begins in the coming week. The first-quarter earnings season cranks up with heavyweight reports due from five Dow components: Alcoa (AA), Intel (INTC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and General Electric (GE). And Google (GOOG), too.
So, what to expect? Very strong earnings and possibly better guidance as the economic recovery starts to accelerate. And maybe higher stock prices.
Even if the Dow couldn't hold 11,000, the blue chips had their best close since Sept. 26, 2008. So did the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX). And the 17-point gain for the Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) brought it to 2,454, its highest close since June 19, 2008.
In addition to the Dow's 0.64% gain for the week, the S&P 500 was up 1.4% and the Nasdaq up 2.1%.
With members of the European Union agreeing to a financial rescue line to Greece on Sunday, offering the country up to $40 billion in aid to meet its debt obligations, the good feelings from Friday should carry over to Monday.
Article continues below.
Can the market get past 11,000?
Regardless of possible resolution of the Greek uncertainty, Friday's finish left investors with this question: How strong a resistance point will Dow 11,000 be (or for that matter, 1,200 on the S&P 500)? The market has been flirting with the two levels since around March 22.
The answer won't come simply by watching indexes. It will come with the market reaction to the earnings that will come in.
To be sure, many analysts believe the market is long overdue for a 5% to 10% correction. There's even talk of a 20% correction, which would bring the Dow back to 8,800.
On MSN Money's Top Stocks blog: Louis Navellier flatly wrote he saw the big rally since 2009 ending soon. "Right now," he wrote, "the amazing improvements for most stocks compared with 2009 are masking the fact that things are just less bad."
| Markets for the week | ||||||||||||
| 4/9/2010 | 4/1/2010 | % chg. | YTD chg. | |||||||||
| Dow industrials | 10,997.35 | 10,927.07 | 0.6% | 5.5% | ||||||||
| S&P 500 | 1,194.37 | 1,178.10 | 1.4% | 7.1% | ||||||||
| Nasdaq | 2,454.05 | 2,402.58 | 2.1% | 8.1% | ||||||||
| Russell 2000 | 702.95 | 683.98 | 2.8% | 12.4% | ||||||||
| Crude oil | $84.92 | $84.87 | 0.1% | 7.0% | ||||||||
| (per barrel) | ||||||||||||
| U.S. Dollar Index | 81.24 | 81.44 | -0.2% | 3.9% | ||||||||
| 10-yr. Treasury | 3.89% | 3.94% | -1.3% | 1.2% | ||||||||
| Gold | $1,161.90 | $1,126.10 | 3.1% | 6.0% | ||||||||
| (per troy ounce) | ||||||||||||
While there's concern about stocks, Most analysts are bullish about earnings because of indications the job market is starting (but only starting) to come back. Thursday's sales reports from retailers were also robust, especially high-end retailers like Tiffany (TIF), analyst Brian Sozzi of Wall Street Strategies told Reuters.
And, for those who like esoteric indicators, rail-car loadings are now running solidly above year-ago levels. But they're still below 2008 levels, according to data from the Association of American Railroads and ASI/Transmatch, which drills into the railroads' data.
Even shipments of lumber and crushed stone, critical elements in construction, are starting to perk up.
Thomson Reuters is expecting earnings for the S&P 500 to rise some 37% to about $160 billion from a year ago, led by improved results for banks, materials producers and consumer discretionary stocks such as Ford Motor (F) and others.
There will be real gains in revenue -- 10% overall -- with energy, materials and technology companies enjoying the biggest gains overall.
There haven't been many earnings warnings, especially compared with a year ago, Thomson Reuters says. The ratio of negative warnings to positive warnings is 1.2-to-1, down from 1.3-to-1 a year ago and lower than the long-term average of 2-to-1.
So, here's who reports next week:
Monday: Alcoa is the marquee report, coming after the close. The aluminum maker is expected to report 10 cents a share in earnings, up from a loss of 60 cents a year ago. Revenue is supposed to jump 25% to $5.2 billion. The stock was downgraded Friday.
Tuesday: Railroad CSX (CSX), industrial supplies distributor Fastenal (FAST) and Intel. Intel has said it sees a strong quarter. Analysts agree, forecasting a 37% increase in revenue to $9.82 billion and earnings per share of 38 cents, up 245% from a year ago. Shares are up 10%, 10th-best among the 30 Dow stocks.
Wednesday: JPMorgan is expected to report 63 cents a share in earnings, up from 40 cents a year ago. But watch to see if it responds to a Wall Street Journal report that banks routinely unload lots of debt for short periods of time at the end of the quarter to reduce their risk levels.
Thursday: Google, which reports after the close, has had a tricky year. Its decision to defy China over censorship issues has hit the stock; shares are down 8.7% this year. So, there are lots of questions: How does it see the China situation? How is its Android phone performing? Also reporting: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Krispy Kreme (KKD) and mining giant Rio Tinto (RTP).
Friday: Bank of America and GE report before the open. Shares of both companies are among the strongest Dow stocks, up 22%-plus this year. This will be B of A's first quarter under the leadership of Brian Moynihan, who succeeded Ken Lewis as CEO in January. The company is expected to report 9 cents a share in earnings, down from 17 cents a year ago. The stock finished Friday at $18.59, up 23% for the year and 492% from its March 2009 low. Analyst Dick Bove of Rochdale Securities thinks Bank of America could be worth $53 a share if broken up.
With General Electric, the question is whether its huge finance business has really turned the corner. Analysts are starting to come around on the industrial giant. The stock is up 22% this year to $18.52.
As busy as the week ahead sounds, the following week gets a lot busier.
A veritable flood that includes reports from IBM (IBM), Coca-Cola (KO), Apple (AAPL), Goldman Sachs (GS), Boeing (BA), McDonald's (MCD), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Schlumberger (SLB).
A series of important economic reports
The first week or so of any month is relatively quiet, except for the big jobs report.
Next week, like earnings, has a lot of market-moving news on tap. Here's what to watch:
Consumer Price Index, due Wednesday. Inflation is supposed to be low. But watch out for rising energy prices in March.
Retail sales for March, due Wednesday. The consensus estimate is for a 1.1% gain. "Households are spending more and saving less in anticipation of an improving economy," says IHS Global Insight. The economic research firm sees sales up 1.2% in March, led by improving auto sales.
Industrial production for March, due Thursday. Look for 0.6% improvement in March over February. Partly it's the economy's fault. And partly it's because there weren't any big winter storms.
Housing starts and building permits for March, due Friday. Nobody expects big gains, but the consensus is for starts to come in at a seasonally adjusted 610,000 units, up from February's 575,000. Permits, the less sexy but more important of the two numbers, are expected to be 626,000, down from February's 627,000 rate.
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[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 ended this week with a bang, roaring to a new all-time high on the back of stronger-than-expected economic data, influential leadership, and an ongoing appreciation for the Fed's monetary policy support.
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All hail the bull market, which ended the week with a big rally. But it also is starting to look a little like 1987, which suffered an epic blow-out.
