Dow off 121 as post-election swoon continues
Investors worry about the economy, the fiscal cliff and Europe. Disney and Nordstrom earnings disappoint. Apple continues its slide since September. McDonald's monthly sales fall for the first time in 9 years. Gold and crude oil move higher.
Stocks finished at their lowest levels since the summer today as another slide in Apple (AAPL) shares pulled tech stocks lower and McDonald's (MCD) reported a surprising decline in October sales.
Apple was down $20.25 to $537.75, its seventh loss in the last 11 days, on worries that production problems are limiting iPhone 5 availability. There's talk investors are starting to ask what the company's next big wonder product might be. McDonald's was off $1.73 to $85.13 and was the biggest weight on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), which fell for the second day in a row.
The major indexes all ended the day below their 200-day moving averages, which are key indicators of investor confidence.
After the close, shares of Walt Disney (DIS) were off 97 cents to $49.07. The company reported fiscal-fourth-quarter earnings of 68 cents a share, up from 59 cents a year ago and in line with Street estimates. Revenue of $10.78 billion, up from $10.43 billion, missed the Street estimate of $10.92 billion. Nordstrom (JWN) shares also were falling after hours as earnings of 71 cents a share missed the Street estimate of 72 cents.
The Dow closed down 121 points to 12,811, its lowest close since July 25. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) was off 17 points to 1,378, its lowest close since Aug. 2. The close for the Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) was 2,896, down 42 points, and its lowest close since July 23. The Nasdaq-100 Index ($NDX), heavily influenced by Apple, was down 40 points to 2,573.
Article continues below.McDonald's said same-store sales fell 1.8% in October, as consumers flocked to rivals, including Burger King (BKW), which has been revamping its menus. The company said sales were down 2.2% in the U.S. and Europe. Sales fell 2.4% in its Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa region. McDonald's contributed more than 13 points to the Dow's loss by itself. Half of the Dow's loss came from declines in McDonald's, United Technologies (UTX), Caterpillar (CAT), Home Depot (HD) and Chevron (CVX).
The Dow has fallen 434 points in two days. That's its worst two-day loss since the blue chips fell 573 points on Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2011.
The euro's fall hurts U.S. stocks; oil and gold rise
The euro fell to a two-month low against the dollar after the European Central Bank held interest rates at a record low and said the eurozone economy showed little sign of recovering before year-end.
In addition, a European Union official said a decision on unlocking funds for Greece may not be made until late November. European stocks closed lower. A falling euro (or a rising dollar) makes U.S. exports less competitive.
Crude oil (-CL) in New York settled up 65 cents to $85.09 a barrel today. Gold (-GC) settled up $12 to $1,724.20 an ounce.
The 10-year Treasury yield was 1.632%, unchanged from Wednesday.
|Energy prices -- New York close|
|Thur.||Wed.||Month chg.||YTD chg.|
|Crude oil (-CL)||$85.09||$84.44||-1.33%||-13.90%|
|Heating oil (-HO)||$2.9554||$2.9621||-3.49%||1.41%|
|Natural gas (-NG)||$3.6080||$3.5780||-2.28%||20.71%|
|(per mil. BTU)|
|Unleaded gasoline (-RB)||$2.6073||$2.5889||-0.87%||-1.89%|
|(per gallon; AAA)|
A nervous market
Investors were probably a little punchy after stocks suffered their worst one-day losses in nearly a year with the Dow's 313-point drop on Wednesday.
The sell-off was due in part to President Obama's re-election and the uncertainty because of the so-called "fiscal cliff" -- the combination of tax hikes and spending cuts that will kick in starting Jan. 1 unless Congress and the White House can agree on changes.
The fiscal cliff would drive the U.S. economy back into recession next year and result in a jump in the jobless rate to 9.1% by the end of 2013, a new report from the Congressional Budget Office said.
The CBO, the independent budget arm of Congress, said economic output would drop by 0.5% in 2013 without action. But the CBO added the U.S. economy would in the longer run return to better growth rates and lower employment, with the U.S. unemployment dropping perhaps to 5.5% by 2020, The Wall Street Journal noted.
In addition, worries are deepening about economic woes in Europe. Germany's economy is starting to slow down, and political tensions were high in Greece after its parliament agreed to new austerity measures.
The Dow and S&P 500 are off roughly 6% since a market peak in mid-September. The Nasdaq has fallen 9.1% since Sept. 14, when it closed at a 2012 high of 3,184.
If the fiscal cliff takes effect, it will result in an increase in tax rates on dividends.
Because of that potential, Leggett & Platt (LEG), which makes components used in bedding and furniture, accelerated the payment of its fourth-quarter dividend of 29 cents a share to Dec. 10 to qualify for 2012 tax rates. Leggett & Platt was down 17 cents to $26.84.
Lastly, the third-quarter earnings season has produced profits that have met estimates for the most part. Revenues for S&P 500 companies are beating estimates less than 40% of the time, instead of the usual 62%. Part of that is due to slowing non-U.S. business and the dollar's depressing effect on international revenue. If the dollar rises, the value of non-U.S. revenue falls.
The Apple effect on markets
The peaks for the major averages appear to tracking with Apple's tumble from an all-time closing high of $702.10 on Sept. 19 and a record intraday high of $705.07 on Sept. 21.
The reason to concentrate on Apple is that it is the world's most valuable company, and it has shed about $143 billion in market capitalization as the stock has slid more than 22% since those September highs. Apple represents about 17% of the market capitalization of the Nasdaq-100 and 4% of the S&P 500.
There are lots of reasons why Apple has fallen so much. The stock was up 73% for the year at its peak. By a number of measures, the shares were overbought, and it's vulnerable to violent moves because it is the largest holding of many of the biggest hedge funds. If they start to sell, bad things can happen quickly.
It is possible that Apple is nearing a bottom. Its 14-day relative strength index was below 22 today. The index measures a stock's momentum. A reading below 30 implies a stock is oversold. A reading above 70 suggests a stock is overbought and nearing a pullback.
Another broad slump
Only four of the 30 Dow stocks were higher today: Bank of America (BAC), Boeing (BA), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Travelers Companies (TRV). The laggards were Cisco Systems (CSCO) and McDonald's.
In addition, only 146 S&P 500 stocks were higher, along with 194 Nasdaq-100 stocks.
Chipmaker Qualcomm (QCOM, Century Link (CTL) and Verisign (VRSN) were the S&P 500 leaders. Qualcomm's fiscal-fourth-quarter earnings beat Street estimates, thanks to an explosion in demand for smartphones. It boosted its first-quarter guidance.
Verisign and Qualcomm were also the top Nasdaq-100 stocks. Whole Foods Market (WFM) and SanDisk (SNDK) were the laggards.
Whole Foods, down $5.62 to $90.31, offered lower-than-expected guidance for the fiscal first quarter. Results will be hurt by disruptions to its operations in the Northeast by Superstorm Sandy.
|Short hits from the markets -- New York close|
|Thur.||Wed.||Month chg.||YTD chg.|
|13-week Treasury bill||0.0900%||0.100%||-18.18%||800.00%|
|5-year Treasury note||0.643%||0.662%||-10.07%||-22.53%|
|10-year Treasury note||1.632%||1.632%||-3.20%||-12.77%|
|30-year Treasury bond||2.769%||2.821%||-2.88%||-4.15%|
|U.S. Dollar Index||80.886||80.867||1.12%||0.45%|
|(in U.S. $)|
|U.S. $ in pounds||£0.625||£0.625||0.92%||-2.83%|
|Euro in dollars||$1.28||$1.28||-1.63%||-1.59%|
|(in U.S. $)|
|U.S. $ in euros||€ 0.784||€ 0.783||1.66%||1.62%|
|U.S. $ in yen||79.41||79.95||-0.49%||2.99%|
|U.S. $ in Chinese||6.26||6.24||0.48%||-0.98%|
|(in U.S. $)|
|(in Canadian $)|
|(per troy ounce)|
|(per troy ounce)|
|Crude oil (-CL)||$85.09||$84.440||-1.33%||-13.90%|
And personally, and believe me I know how many would like to see the end of the World so as to be able to practice their guns-and-bunker philosophy, ....personally
I would not prefer to see a steep recession that this awful turned into a Depression.
NOT when we do not need to....
Simple fixes, starting with Nat Gas for all public and private fleets, to help the general population buy in... Green Retrofitting of our domiciles and businesses, as well.
STOP the War on Drugs- stop making criminals out of sick people, and rich people out of cartels, and burdening our cops, courts and corrections.
STOP the War on Terror- It just makes more enemies. Frankly, Americans bringing fresh water to villages in Africa and S.E Asia has done more for our image and to promote capitalism than a Million 'boots on the ground'.
STOP the Phony Foreign aid and other bribes for dictators.
STOP allowing Big Oil to drive our foreign policy.
STOP further Monopolistic practices, START enforcing actions to break up
TBTF banks to begin with....
AND ALL THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL WE REMOVE THOSE TEA PARTY
AND THEIR PHONY CONSERVATISM FROM CONGRESS...
Yes, and demand our refund for all their 'hard work' these past 2 years.
The Dow has hit it's mark, it has reached the predicted goal of 12,700 and should be at the bottom of this correction. It may linger into next week, the Daily Bands are still diverging indicating price will continue too fall, but they appear to be easing. At this point, the ADX is in full stride and until it breaks, price will fall. When the 20 day moving average starts too ease as well, that will be a key to the Dow's turn around, but as of today it's value remains high.
What's encouraging is that the Monthly Bands are raising indicating the Dow remains a BUY (long term TREND) , so when this correction ends, a BUYING opportunity will be in place.
Something seems fishy with Crude Oil. By all rights, according to the indicators, Oil should be falling like a rock and it's not. the RSI remains high keeping the price steady and all the other indicators are negative. Daily and Monthly Bands are falling, by all rights, assuring price should be down, but it's not, it's moving sideways, price control?
Gold has momentum and is moving up nicely, I'm surprised it remains a SELL?
My calculations are based on technical analysis of the market.
I consider myself someone who's tries his best to be as good a Christian as possible, but understands that the rest of the country deserves the right to make their own decision on if they believe the same as me. Too many Christians have adopted this idea that they are obligated to try and persuade others to think like them. On a social level..... fine, go do what you feel you need to do, but to keep thinking our government should be designed to push our views is very misguided.
The only one I still struggle with is abortion, but like VF said yesterday, there is so much gray in that issue that it's impossible to know for sure what the perfect answer is. So..... IMO, that's best to be left up to the INDIVIDUALS, and not keep pushing for a repeal of Roe v Wade. If nothing else, from a political standpoint, the writing is there to see it's a losing position. Even here in Florida, a well written Amendment to keep taxpayer money from funding abortions that did not involve, rape, incest, the mother's health, and some other "outs" lost 55-45. The people just aren't for it. And we Christians need to accept THAT OK. Each of us has our own right to choose our own path. I BELIEVE..... but you are more than welcome NOT TO.
Like Tebow said, his was to WITNESS was to live the proper life. Through this example others can see how it can be done. Trying to FORCE that on people TOTALLY MISSES THE MARK.
Sorry to tell you this (again) .....
I DO NOT WORK FOR MONEY ( I dont have to anymore)
I DO NOT POST HOT SAUCED RUBBISH TO INFLAME THE AUDIENCE. ( Only annoy them)
I DO NOT ADVOCATE FOR AN AMERICA SOLD OUT WHOLESALE TO CORPORATES.
I DO NOT BELIEVE IN MONEY OVER OTHER MATTERS, BUT MIND OVER MONEY.
I DO BELIEVE I WILL STILL BE HERE IN 4 MORE YEARS, BUT YOU WILL BE GONE.
----And hopefully a little more happy.
Love, Da Money....
PS- "LOOK OUT.......DA WOLFMAN GONNA GIT YA !!!"
It turns out, it IS a Vice after all. Ends do not justify the Means. Corporations are NOT People.
PS, and please take the Viagra away from Classic Lady and give her the Estrogen back.
Oh, almost forgot.......
C H R I S V A N H O L L E N & L I Z W A R R E N - 2016, thank you.
I think people know that politicians were voted in to run the country. The people themselves are too busy trying to make a living and figured they hired a "professional" to take care of all that government nonsense. They weren't asked permission to make banking policy, make budgets, or deficit spend their tax dollars. They don't know all the details of congress or the process of creating laws and regulations. That's why they paid others to do it for them. If the people they paid to perform a service, don't do it, then they are removed and replaced by someone who will.
They don't care how they do it. They just want it done. That's their (politicians) problem that they got paid to do.That's why the congress has such a low vote of confidence from their electorate.
and that God is guiding the country, maybe God voted for Obama.
Think about it, if you're pro-choice, pro-entitlements, pro-big-gov, pro-gun-control, pro-tax-and-spend, there's a 95% chance that the Dem candidate for whatever office is on the same side. It's a no brainer - vote for the Dem and your views are represented.
However, if you're pro-life, pro-smaller-gov, pro-gun-rights, pro-balanced-budget, etc..., you can't just vote for the Repub candidate and be confident that your views will be represented, because there's at least a 50-50 chance that they won't agree with you on any of this.
The Repub "big tent" philosophy has become a convoluted mess and there's no central theme or message. On the one hand, they are against Obamacare, but on the other hand, they nominate the only governor in the country to pass gov-run healthcare in his state. Half the party is strongly pro-choice, half of them are in favor of more gun-control, and 80% of them signed onto expanding the federal gov in massive ways with the Patriot Act, No child left behind, prescription drug bill etc... None of them have been willing to balance the budget when they are in power, but when they lose power, they are the first to gripe about deficit spending. Herman Cain is right, the future of the conservative movement is NOT with the Repub party.
If California were my business, I would have accepted that the wackos had overtaken the area and closed the store. Long ago.....
"Ten incumbent Democrats lost reelection in the House. Four California Democrats lost to fellow Democrats due to the state's Top Two Primary while two incumbents lost to two fellow Republican incumbents after being redistricted to the same district."
Shame on the American people.
"We're so far gone. We're over the cliff," the Texas Republican told Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop" program. "We cannot get enough people in Congress in the next 5-10 years who will do wise things."
"The people in the Midwest voted against him: 'Oh, we have to be taken care of!' So that vote was sort of like what we are laughing at in Greece," Mr. Paul said.
"People do not want anything cut," he said. "They want all the bailouts to come. They want the Fed to keep printing the money. And they don't believe that we've gone off the cliff or are close to going off the cliff. They think we can patch it over, that we can somehow come up with some magic solution. But you can't have a budgetary solution if you don't change what the role of government should be. As long as you think we have to police the world and run this welfare state, all we are going to argue about is who will get the loot."
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[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages spent the entire session in a steady downtrend, but despite persistent selling pressure, today's losses were limited in scope. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq shed between 0.2% and 0.3% while the Russell 2000 lagged, falling 0.9%.
The underperformance of the Russell 2000 was likely owed in part to tax-loss selling, which tends to pick up this time of year. Small-caps often feel that pinch in a stronger fashion than large-cap issues since individual ... More
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