The unemployment number is way off
A former Bureau of Labor Statistics head says actual joblessness is closer to 11%. Voices from the left and right, and even the Fed, seem to agree.
That's not some government critic's rant or some right-wing conspiracy: It's the view that Keith Hall, who led the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008 until last year, shared with the New York Post on Tuesday. He backs it up by pointing to the BLS employment-to-population ratio, which says only about 58.7% of the available workforce is employed. That's below the pre-recession peak of 63% and roughly the same as it has been since August 2009.
That leads Hall to believe that the actual unemployment rate is about 3% higher than the stated 7.6%, or closer to 11%.
Critics like to point out that Hall now draws a paycheck from the right-leaning, Koch Brothers-funded Mercatus Center at George Mason University. That may be, but his criticisms are less in line with Jack Welch's accusations of outright fraud than they are with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's admission to the Senate that the unemployment percentage may be "in some ways . . . too optimistic a measure of the state of the labor market."
That's no small matter, because the Fed has changed its threshold for raising interest rates from 6.5% unemployment to 7% and is making noise about slowing its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying stimulus. Using Hall's metric, the Fed would be jacking up rates from zero with the nation at roughly 10% unemployment. Given Bernanke's recent testimony, it sounds like even the Fed chairman isn't believing the numbers he's seeing.
Both sides of the aisle think there's good reason for his skepticism. Mark Gongloff at The Huffington Post notes that the labor-force participation rate, which includes people working and looking for work, has been about 63% in recent years, well below the 66% that was common before the recession. That 3% difference would raise the total number of unemployed from 12 million to 18 million -- which would also put the unemployment rate at around 11%.
The New York Post's John Crudele, meanwhile, notes that the BLS figure for unemployment including the underemployed actually rose to 14.3% in June from 13.8% the month before.
None of that is great news for the jobless, and all of it suggests that the Fed may want to hold off before it rips the bandage from a supposedly healed economy. When sides that disagree on just about everything concur that the unemployment number is off, maybe it's time for a needed tweak.
The unemployment rate may be 11 or 15 or 20.
The fact remains that middle America is broke.
Entitlements are going broke or broke.
The US will soon meet the same faith as Detroit.
China is now the #1 super power.
Washington is BRAIN DEAD.
The elderly are abandoned, no money no health care no place to go.
Who cares what the true unemployment rate is. America is in a death spiral.
The real economy is now much weaker today than it was in 2007
The fact that 58 million Americans are on food stamps shows that the unemployment problem is a lot worse than it is reported as.
There are about 40 million less employed people today than in 2006 so the unemployment rate is really about 25 percent and climbing.
The USA is in a Death Spiral of lost jobs and an ever weaker and wekaer economy.
The Obama Admin has added almost 1 percent fake monies to the national GDP by introducing a fictious add to the GDP of value added calculations.
In other news, the rate of inflation is rather higher than proclaimed, the cost of living is substantially greater than advertised, and the cutoff line for "living in poverty" is not so delightfully low.
What part of the national economy do you think is not cooked?
"None of that is great news for the jobless, and all of it suggests that the Fed may want to hold off before it rips the bandage from a supposedly healed economy."
Bernanke's bandage = Duct Tape over the Nose and Mouth of the Middleclass citizen. FADING FALLING DYING
If we count those who are- unemployed and under-employed (a higher skill set, degree or certification in a proficiency) and those forced into self-employment because of job and career blockades... the count is more like 90 million. Subtract those over the current retirement age of 65 and those under 16, and the ACTUAL unemployment rate is something like 50%. Looking around the world, no nation is as bad and no nation has a Ben Bernanke funding it's demise by infusing capital in garbage banks that gamble it in manipulated stock and bond markets. An ENTERPRISE does business. A business platform does administration and financial book cooking. When you look at America, you see brands that import, not iconic businesses that built those brands through quality, integrity and cooperation in it's workforce. We have a jobs blockade. They are blocked by loser alumni, political persuasion, false perceptions of wealth and privilege. groups and cliques are destroying the nation. I don't do Twitter. I don't do Facebook. Linked-in is literally an anti-Civil Right machine. We all know it. I write Obama and my Congress about it daily. Time for change. One of the main changes is burning the f'ing crap out of groups. We can recite from a book written 3,500 years ago but we can't decipher a law made yesterday by the worst Congress in America History. TIME FOR CHANGE. Close the banks, end the Federal Reserve, get RID of Wall Street. If we have to take them down brick by brick because they don't get the message, may no person in them be spared. Heal ourselves first. Do it today. Any IDIOT could have dropped $85 billion a month from a plane and caused more economy, recovery and opportunity than all the QE has done. As for the "talent" in business... we know what THAT talent is. Crooked people deserve the worst, not the whole of nation that worked hard, got promised a lot and never got any of it. TIME FOR CHANGE.
1) People who do not have a job equivalent to their education and skill (estimated as many as 18mil)
2) Given up No job out there
3) Left the country
4) Went underground (bad, street peddling, hacking, collection enforcers, etc)
5) went back to school
6) Are cought between retirement and meager wage work.
DOL is looking at one spectrum.
Surprise. Surprise. The unemployment rate is much higher and the government wants you to believe that the economy is better shape than it is. What else is new? Maybe the Dems and Repubs can work together and fix the economy by Sept. You think?
Congress no longer represents the American people. To be elected to congress cost large amounts of money and vested interests supply this money, congressman are bought and paid for before they ever take office. Also, it is estimated that for every $1 spent by lobbyists there is a $2200 return on that dollar. The money is just too big. If you look at who benefits from our current economic policy it is the big banks, large corporations and the federal government and the vested interests they protect. Americans we are going to have to face this reality and deal with it. Sorry about that!! The big question is do we have what it takes to deal with this reality????
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[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market finished an upbeat week on a mixed note. The S&P 500 added just over a point, holding its weekly gain at 1.0% while the Nasdaq lost 0.4%.
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