Big job gains expected next year, economists say
Could the unemployment rate drop to 6.5% in 2014? That's the forecast that's turning heads.
And how exactly might the unemployment rate get that low? New jobs. Lots of 'em. The bank thinks the country will add a very robust 302,000 a month next year. That's a steep gain from what we've been seeing so far this year, with 165,000 added in April and 138,000 in March.
The overall economy will see a nice rebound, the bank says, with real gross domestic product growth of about 3.25%.
That will be a welcome change after watching 2013 sputter a bit lately. And the rest of this year doesn't look that rosy either. Real GDP growth this year is expected at only 2.5%, below the 3% that the New York Fed predicted a year ago.
You don't have to look far beyond Washington, D.C., to see why the rest of this year looks sluggish. A major factor is the combination of the federal sequester and tax increases that came out of the deal to avoid the fiscal cliff, the economists wrote in a blog post released Thursday. Those two events could pull back economic growth by more than 1% this year, but the drag should be smaller next year.
So while the unemployment rate will fall in 2014, the economists said, for the rest of this year it may slide to just about 7.25% by the fourth quarter. Currently the unemployment rate is 7.5%.
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they are full of (BS), uhtil we the people clean house of lifetime pol's who answer to big money
the economy will stay balled up.
Speaking to my son over dinner last week was an eye opener about the job market. His firm is in the seventy to eighty million dollar range. They have hired some of the best head hunters to fill over fifty positions in the company. Every position pays over a hundred thousand a year. The few that have been hired are from Russia, Spain, Brazil, Finland and Germany totaling sixteen. They are fluent in English. All were hired away from existing companies because of their experience and records of verified accomplishments. I asked the big question of why no US hires. Answer was no US applicants have the educational backgrounds to be hired. The average age of the new hires is forty seven with one at fifty six. (My son is forty three) His firm is stagnating because the expandability can only be accomplished with qualified people. "What is our problem" I foolishly asked. His answer, confidence, ambition and desire to learn our products, present them in a simple features, benefits and return on investment. US candidates want salary not commensurate with their knowledge and every company benefit. foreign workers want a challenge to succeed and a salary based on their record of performance. They have a large overseas presence however seven major cities in the US are being covered by other existing cities and the potential is being lost because they can not hire to expand.
There are lies, damned lies and statistics.
-- Mark Twain
The Federal Reserve is conspiring with the Congress and President to try to make people think the economy is improving, so they will spend more.
Perform Internet Search: civilian labor participation rate fred
Civilian Labor Participation Rate is down from 67% in 2000 to 63.5% today. An almost 4% loss, that amounts to 9 to 12 million more unemployed people now than in 2000.
The unemployment rate is a damned lie, er... statistic.
It's the ole "The economy has created 3 million jobs. I know, I have three of them" trick.
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The US isn't strong enough not to care about them now. But one day it will be.
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