Deal between American and US Airways gets closer

According to Reuters, U.S. Airways and American Airlines parent company AMR Corp. are ironing out the final price of the deal and the combined company's management structure. The two airlines and the folks holding American's purse strings could reach a deal in the next two weeks, according to "four people familiar with the matter."

Or they might just scrap the whole thing. This has been the state of these merger talks almost since American filed for bankruptcy in November 2011 and it hasn't grown any more stable after both sides sat down to negotiate. There are still a number of obstacles in the way, and any of them could scuttle the plan.

Before fliers get too nervous about which airline will be taking them to their turkey or tofurkey this Thanksgiving, here are just a few things to realize about this maybe merger:

AMR Corp still thinks it's flying the plane. American Airlines' owners don't see a merger with US Airways as the airline's last, best hope. They still think a restructuring plan can get the airline off the ground again and eliminate all its problems. This is an airline whose on-time arrival rate fell as low as 59% last year and only recovered to about 75% during the peak holiday season in December, according to FlightStats.com. American blamed service and labor issues for its lateness, but the latter problem is a whole other headache.

American's pilots are rooting for U.S. Airways. According to Forbes blogger Ted Reed, pilots at American Airlines would get $522 million more from a merger with U.S. Airways than they would if the merger was called off. That's $87 million in pay and retirement increases annually for the next six years, far better than the bankruptcy contract those pilots agreed to in December. Similarly disgruntled U.S. Airways pilots have been promised a similar deal if the merger goes though. If American thinks it has labor issues now, just wait until it yanks away that $522 million carrot.

The competition is getting too big. After United (UAL) merged with Continental, the combined company generated $37.15 billion in revenue last year. American Airlines and U.S. Airways combined just beat that mark with $38.69 billion in 2012. Alone, each airline pales in comparison to its oversized competitor. Together, they at least have a fighting chance.

Beggars are being choosers. U.S. Airways made AMR an offer in November that put U.S. Airways chief executive Doug Parker at the head of the new company, but would give AMR creditors 70% of its equity. AMR management not only seemed shaky about handing the controls to Parker, but wanted a bigger cut than the 70% on the table. We'd ask them to remind us which one was in bankruptcy, but we're pretty sure we'd get the following answer in reply...

American has the hubs, so it makes the rules. U.S. Airways' key markets in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, its home city of Phoenix and Charlotte, N.C., are cute and all, but American brings New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and Dallas/Fort Worth to the party. It also has a joint venture with British Airways that would allow a combined company to counter Delta, which just bought a 49% stake in Virgin Atlantic to strengthen its London operations. That not only explains why American has been so strident in its dealings with U.S. Airways, but why American chairman Tom Horton outright insulted U.S. Airways earlier last year by calling out their previous merger failures to the Dallas Morning News and stating publicly, "I’m not sure what’s in the water out there in Phoenix. Maybe it’s the cactus."

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