This rally has the bears feeling sheepish

The blogosphere is full of jeering about all the financial pundits who were recently preaching that gloom and doom were upon the markets.

By Bruce Kennedy Mar 6, 2013 2:42PM

Image: Stock market (© Zurbar/age fotostock)There's a saying that only economists and weather forecasters can be wrong 50% of the time and still keep their jobs. Perhaps we can add Wall Street analysts to that group.


Now that the Dow has punched its way into record territory, the blogosphere is having a field day -- a snark-fest, if you will -- as it looks back at the all the industry experts, commentators and pundits who were predicting a full-on bear market.


As of Monday, according to The Associated Press, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 7.8% for 2013 -- while the S&P 500 was up 6.9%. And some folks in finance and the media are calling this the Idiot-Maker Rally because it has made a lot of Wall Street analysts look awfully foolish.


Business Insider has a collection of quotes from various financial gurus who, while they may be right later on, have gotten it wrong for the moment.


Here's billionaire financier George Soros from June of 2010, when the Dow had come off the bottom from its 2009 lows. "We have just entered Act II," he said at the time. "The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real and the crisis is far from over...1930's style budget deficits are essential as counter-cyclical policies, yet many governments are now moving to reduce their budget deficits under pressure from financial markets. This is liable to push the global economy into a double-dip."


And then there's economist and financial writer John Mauldin in August of 2011, predicting the U.S. would be back in recession within the next 12 months, with share prices falling as much as 40%. And just one year later Swiss investor Marc Faber, publisher of the appropriately named GloomBoomDoom website, predicted a bear market for the S&P 500 after the 2012 presidential elections.


Left-leaning Media Matters, a site that's no friend of Fox News, also has clips from that network and other media outlets that linked Mitt Romney's domination of President Barack Obama the night before, during the first presidential debate in October 2012, to the next day's higher numbers on Wall Street.


Then there's this gem from The Wall Street Journal's Political Diary, dated Nov. 6 -- election day -- talking about how an Obama defeat would spark a rally:


"One reason to suspect a stock market bounce from a Romney victory is that this would likely mean steering clear of the 2013 tax cliff that Obama wants to shove the nation over. The higher investment taxes on capital gains and dividends, all else equal, could depress stocks, and some of that is already priced into stock values.... Because of those higher tax rates, economist Arthur Laffer has advised his clients that an Obama victory could bring a double dip recession that would be a killer for business profits and stocks."


It looks like investors now think otherwise.


More on moneyNOW

23Comments
Mar 6, 2013 3:22PM
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Basically, this market will continue to climb until I finally decide to get in.  Once I get in, the market correct itself.  This has been my experience over the last 5-7 years.  It's amazing how the market responds to my investment patterns.
Mar 6, 2013 3:08PM
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This market desperately needs the gloom and doomers to hang in there.  When everybody gets bullish....that's when the real problems start.  The old axiom that "markets climb a wall of worry" certainly holds true here. 
Mar 6, 2013 3:18PM
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Just goes to show that the economist, market analyst, investment advisors, etc - DO NOT have a good knowledge base for our very complex economy. Keep trying boys and one of these days you might get some real theories on how it all works - much like Newton and Einstein learned to predict the Science world and how it all works.  Until then.... I'll just leave my money in the market and take the good with the bad.
Mar 6, 2013 3:51PM
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If you really believe the economy is doing well, that should be a reason for the Fed to withdraw stimulus. Just try it and we see where this market goes to...
Mar 6, 2013 4:56PM
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Hey Chillin Down South! When you do jump into the market, please tell the rest of us so we can invest accordingly.  All kidding aside, if international investors were worried about a sudden crash, then you would see precious metals spiking upwards like they were doing before the last crash.  I just don't see that right now, but if they do, I would advise abandoning ship quickly.

Mar 6, 2013 3:13PM
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Actually this is a global rally demonstrating a worldwide global recovery.  Most people I know have doubled their 401ks and IRAs over the last 5 years and if you are not one these people then you probably shouldn't start investing in the market now. If you want to stay negative or react like Chicken Little and claim the " Sky is falling !!! ", that's your choice, but basically you missed the train.  This isn't just about Obama, Bernanke or only the United States.

Mar 6, 2013 3:53PM
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If you say it's going to be bad every day, eventually you'll be right!
Mar 6, 2013 3:20PM
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The stock market is an amazing thing to watch. The article on the right, about the 7 stocks leading the dow to 14,000 is pretty much right on the money. Anyone that is waiting this rally out is missing a great opportunity. Pick your poison and hope for the best.
Mar 6, 2013 4:26PM
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Starting to hear some rosy talk from the Fed. Could be working their selves up to ending the money printing.
Mar 7, 2013 6:31PM
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This is a good time to be well diversified! 
Mar 7, 2013 3:22PM
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Bulls make money; bears make money--pigs get slaughtered.
Mar 6, 2013 3:03PM
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Yes, it is amazing how the Fed’s surprise commitment to pump an extra $1 trillion of freshly printed funny money into the stock market has caused the market cap of the S&P to rise about, um $1 trillion.

 

Oh, now I get it. And we’re all richer, why?

Mar 7, 2013 3:20PM
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It's time for it to crash--I am really tempted to buy.
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Gee guys the stock market is a bubble held up by Bernanke's printing monies to infinity and beyond.

 

It is a story that will not end well.

 

This bubble will burst later this year when the Chinese yuan takes over as the world reserve currency.

 

 

Mar 6, 2013 4:37PM
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"It looks like investors think otherwise."

Investors?  What investors?  Have you looked at the volume lately?  A half hour to go and we're at a measly 80 million shares on the Dow. Pathetic!

And for the record, you can be a huge bear and still make plenty of money, both inside and outside  of this market.  And let's be honest, for the average person who chooses not to spend a ton of time on these things, there really aren't many other options out there that will keep pace with inflation.  If you don't have time to invest in real estate, or follow the FOREX, or start  or invest in a small side business, or trade commodities, etc..., you can either lose your shirt with a money market account or CDs, or you can ride the wave with equities.  Just adjust your stop-loss parameters accordingly as we rally, and don't think twice about selling when those parameters are reached.

Mar 6, 2013 3:46PM
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We can look back on this when the fed stops manipulating the market and then say TOLD YOU SO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mar 6, 2013 3:14PM
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hey, higher taxes, more green energy fiascos, more regululation, higher gas prices, high unemployment, and the Fed bribing wall street......typical dummycrat economy.......
Mar 6, 2013 3:15PM
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oh, i forgot, more welfare and food stamps....
Mar 6, 2013 3:33PM
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You bears sure hate to make money.Listen to the Republicans:Let the middle class

eat cake.Guns not brains.Less education.Those Republican ideas will keep Dems

in the WH.Oh, I forget 1 more Republican idea :WE NEED MORE WARS.Just keep

the wars off the budget.I`ve got you guys figured.

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