US may become largest oil producer in 2013

Production growth from shale deposits in North Dakota and elsewhere is boosting US output ahead of Saudi Arabia's and Russia's, BP says. The US should be basically self-sufficient by 2030.

By Charley Blaine Jan 17, 2013 9:09AM
Oil derricks © Comstock/CorbisWill the United States be the top oil producer in 2013?

Yes, according to British oil giant BP (BP). The company's Energy Outlook for 2030 report projects that the U.S. will move past Saudi Arabia and Russia this year in terms of energy liquids production. That's crude oil and biofuels. And the U.S. is likely to hold on to that position for 10 years until 2023.

The reason for the production gains is the emergence of "tight oil," which is how the industry terms what's coming from shale deposits such as the Bakken shale in North Dakota and Montana as well as in Texas and Louisiana.

Moreover, the report says, the United States will become "nearly self-sufficient in energy" by 2030, while India and China will become increasingly dependent on energy imports.

Global energy demand will grow 1.6% a year -- 36% overall by 2030. The global population will grow by 1.3 billion to roughly 8.3 billion. Most of that demand will be met by increased production from the U.S., Canada and Brazil.

The one downside is that people should probably not expect much change in gasoline pump prices.

Crude oil is expected to be the slowest-growing fuel over the next 20 years, but it will be supplemented by biofuels and other liquids.

U.S. oil and gas production has grown rapidly in the past few years because fracking -- the blasting of water and chemicals into rocks deep underground -- has unlocked millions of barrels of crude oil and natural gas. Daily U.S. oil production rose more than 14% in 2012 and is expected to rise an additional 14% in 2013 and 8.2% in 2014.

Thanks to fracking, North Dakota, which produced little oil a decade ago, is now the second-largest-producing state.

The increases in natural gas supplies has pushed prices for the fuel substantially lower.

If the U.S. is going to see sizable energy gains, what about production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries?

Look for production declines, BP says, because global supplies are so large. In fact, Saudi Arabia, which has the most spare production capacity, cut production back in December. That's been a big reason crude oil in New York rose 9.3% from about $86 a barrel in early December to $95 a barrel as of Thursday.

China has large potential reserves of shale oil and gas, the report said, but it lacks the key factors that have combined to set off the recent energy boom in the western U.S. and Canada: large fleets of drilling rigs, sophisticated financial markets, a favorable fiscal regime and private ownership of reserves.

More on Money Now


85Comments
Jan 17, 2013 10:40AM
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No shocker here.  Still blaming the middle east for not running at capacity.  It's cheaper for companies that produce here to sell here than to export anyway.  No change in the pump price with more being produced is just a load of BS as supply and production are rising faster than demand.  That alone should push the cost lower. 
Jan 17, 2013 10:59AM
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oil production up and prices not going down.  when are we going to stop getting bent over by oil companies?  we need to do whatever it takes to stop speculation on oil futures and then establish pricing controls on all petroleum products.
Jan 17, 2013 10:54AM
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if we produce so damn much oil why is our gasoline prices still so high?
Jan 17, 2013 11:24AM
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Saudi Arabia has two price ranges. For domestic consumption the rate is very low, but for the export the price is very high and that is why they make huge profit.

I wish our government will think on the same line.

Jan 17, 2013 11:29AM
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good. maybe we can use some of this new found wealth to finally start getting serious about paying down our unfathomable debt crisis, possibly create a budget for our country one of these years, bring jobs back to America and who knows....address social security......but i won't hold my breath.
Jan 17, 2013 10:56AM
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But...but I thought Obama said just a couple years ago that we had only 2.5% of the world's oil reserves and we consume 25% of it's resources.  Guess he didn't go to that meeting either.
Jan 17, 2013 2:22PM
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OBAMA HAS MORE IMPORTANT THINGS LIKE GAY MARRIAGE, ABORTIONS, BIRTH CONTROL,

STIMULUS, BAILOUTS, FAST N FURIOUS, BENGHAZI, WELFARE FOODSTAMPS, AMNESTY FOR

ILLEGALS, GUN CONTROL! HE'S SHUT DOWN CHEAP ENERGY AND FUEL ENERGY FOOD PRICES ARE SKYROCKETING JUST LIKE HE PROMISED! BUT HE CAN GET BIDEN TO COME UP

WITH A GUN CONTROL LAW IN 2 DAYS BUT 4 YEARS HE'S DONE NOTHING ABOUT ECONOMY!

BUT HE GAVE CONGRESS A RAISE AND TAX BREAKS TO HOLLYWEIRD AND HIS BIG UNION

BUDDIES AND GE AND GMC AND GREEN BUDDIES BUT MIDDLE CLASS GOT TAXES RAISED!

Jan 17, 2013 10:26AM
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Oh My! US tree humpers will have trouble sleeping tonight.
Jan 17, 2013 10:47AM
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Yes, indeedy! Try and make sense of any of this oil pricing. The more we produce the more OPEC cuts back and the higher the prices. The less demand the lower the prices until oil producers start cutting back and then causing prices to inflate. It doesn't matter if the U.S. out produces the rest of the world that isn't going to affect our cost at the pump in this life time.

I say let's go back to the camel....We can keep him going on water.

Jan 17, 2013 1:28PM
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Ummm.  I don't quite understand why all the commentary here doesn't recognize the obvious.  3-4 dollars per gallon is the new reality.   And there are forces that will ensure that the price per barrel stays in the 80-100 dollar range.  Why?  Read this article.  US is set to become self sufficient by 2030 (ish).  Why is this happening?  Because the price will remain high.   So which would you rather have:  $3.50/gal and all of that stays in the US? Or, $1.50/gal and we import 60% of our energy.  Seems like a no-brainer to me as we will (indirectly) benefit from the higher prices AND our National Security concerns on energy dissipate.
Jan 17, 2013 12:02PM
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Do not expect the gas price at the pump to down because (1) oil is the world traded commodity and (2) taxes imposed at the pump.  US gas price is already low compared with the rest of the world.  If someone wants the price to be as low as those in middle east oil producing countries, then the government has to subsidize it.  Then the Fed will get your tax money from a different route.  I don't think oil companies are greedy.  Compare the gasoline price (w/o taxes) vs. the price of bottle water.  Water is abundant.  Water companies are really greedy and rip off people! 

Jan 17, 2013 12:02PM
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And I thought Romney said Obama cut oil production?
Jan 17, 2013 2:40PM
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I say hell with the rest of the countries.  I love the idea for being indepentent from other countries for our energy. 
Jan 17, 2013 3:53PM
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"may become" doesn't say a damn thing.  Tell me when it "has become."  For now, we are so far in debt, the US would probalby have to import oil to run the rigs drilling  for it.  What we should be more concerned about is the litteracy of Congress.  We need someone to volunteer GED classes for them with emphasis on elementary math.  That is a big bunch of dumbashes.  I would like to see the US government shut down for at least a month or two.  Could save lots of money. And, we might find we could get along better without it.
Jan 17, 2013 1:12PM
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It is the relationship between demand and production that determines prices, not production or demand alone.
Jan 17, 2013 3:09PM
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If we won't be depending on Middle Eastern oil supplies in the near future then let China & India send their troops to the Middle East to keep their supplies flowing & we can pull ours out.  Also,  without an oil supply in that part of the globe to worry about protecting we can also leave the Arabs & Israelis to their own devices.  Two birds with one stone.
Jan 17, 2013 1:46PM
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I love it! I knew we could do it! This makes me very happy! I've said for many years that I hoped to live long enough to see those nasty bastards in the middle east choke on their oil! Let China and India be dependant on them. However we should buy some of theirs when it's cheap to store for strategic purposes. We will continue to be the best damn country in the world! Tell you what else we should do is turn most of our sugar from beets and cane into fuel instead of making ourselves fat with it and put more corn back into the food chain..      I would rather pay more for our own energy than cheaper arab and Venezuelan  oil.

 

And don't praise Obama for this because he had to be pushed into allowing more production.

Jan 17, 2013 2:40PM
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Wait a minute? Didn't Mitt Romney say oil production was down in this country? This must be false information ! The Republicans wouldn't lie to the American voters just for the sake of winning an election, would they? I am just shocked !
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