11/7/2012 3:45 PM ET|
Fiscal cliff takes aim at your wallet
It's the crisis no one wants to face. But the fiscal cliff is looming -- and it will hit your finances hard if Congress doesn't act soon.
At least the fiscal cliff is aptly named. If we reach it, our economy could plunge off a precipice.
On Dec. 31, a raft of tax cuts will expire, and a bunch of automatic federal spending cuts will kick in. If you haven't heard much discussion about it, that may be because many people don't realize yet what's at stake.
"There hasn't been a lot of talk" among regular people about the fiscal cliff, said CPA and attorney Mark Luscombe, the principal federal tax analyst for tax research firm CCH. "People could start complaining when they see their first paycheck in January."
What's expiring includes some $500 billion in tax cuts. According to CCH, here's what that means:
● Higher tax brackets: The lowest 10% bracket would disappear, and the highest would rise from 35% to 39.6%.
● Higher payroll taxes: The "payroll tax holiday" of the past two years will expire, raising workers' Social Security contributions to 6.2% of their paychecks from the current 4.2%.
● Higher rates on capital gains (from a current 15% maximum to a 20% maximum) and dividends (from a current 15% to as high as 43.4%).
● Significantly lower child and dependent care tax credits.
● The return of the so-called marriage penalty.
● The end of temporary fixes that keep nearly 30 million families from having to pay the dreaded alternative minimum tax.
● Dramatically lower gift and estate tax exemptions (the limits will plunge from $5.12 million to $1 million) and higher tax rates on transfers in excess of those limits (from a maximum 35% to a maximum 55%).
The Tax Policy Center estimates that the end of virtually every tax cut enacted since 2001 would boost taxes an average $3,500 per household. Middle-income families would see an average annual tax increase of almost $2,000, the center said.
The $100 billion in automatic spending cuts -- which include $30 billion in cuts to the defense budget -- are a result of Congress' previous failure to come up with a workable compromise to cut the deficit.
Our wobbly-kneed economy doesn't need to have billions of dollars pulled out from under it right now. The Congressional Budget Office has warned the fiscal cliff will trigger a "significant" recession, throwing an additional 2 million people out of work.
OK, that's bad, but simply taking a U-turn could be worse. The CBO warns that if the tax cuts are all extended and the spending cuts averted, the deficit will explode. As a result, the national debt -- which is now a worrisome 70% of our gross national product -- would rise to 90% of GDP within 10 years.
The money we spend paying interest on that accumulated debt wouldn't be available for more productive uses, like investing in businesses that could provide jobs. The economy could slowly strangle. Other government services likely would have to be sacrificed to pay the tab. Those who buy our debt might decide we're not all that creditworthy and demand higher interest rates. In fact, Moody's ratings service has already threatened to cut the nation's credit rating if Congress doesn't come up with a plan to cut spending.
In short, keeping everything as it is now -- tax cuts in place but no spending cuts --"would improve the economic outlook in the short run but would boost deficits and debt significantly and would place the budget on a path that is ultimately unsustainable," the CBO wrote in its August report. (Italicized emphasis added.)
CBO uses the word "unsustainable" to describe this trajectory three more times in its report, just so we get the point.
Clearly, a lot is at stake, and some hard choices have to be made. The uncertainty is already a drag on the economy and interfering with people's ability to plan their finances. So it should be no surprise that Congress has dithered. No one knows whether lawmakers will be able to put together a deal to avert the fiscal cliff or to soften its effects.
Oh, yeah, and we're also scheduled to hit our debt ceiling again at the end of the year. Last time that happened, the political theatrics spun so far out of control that we almost defaulted on our debt.
Since the Nov. 6 election, there have been a few signs that a compromise may be possible as pressure mounted on Congress to act. The CBO repeated its warnings in a Nov. 8 report, but also indicated that letting taxes rise only on wealthier people—as President Obama has advocated—would not hurt the economy much. The CBO estimated tax hikes for households that make $250,000 or more would cost 200,000 jobs in the short run, rather than the 700,000 claimed by Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner.
Boehner, for his part, has indicated he would be open to “new revenue sources” and a “fairer, cleaner, simpler tax code” but not necessarily tax hikes. Both sides have been trying to parse his remarks, with some concluding that certain tax deductions, like those for mortgage interest and state and local taxes, may be targets for reduction or elimination.
It’s also possible that the lame-duck Congress will punt, at least until next year, by passing measures that put off the fiscal cliff for now. Then newly-elected lawmakers could wrestle with a longer-term compromise on taxes and deficit reduction.
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Some meatheads need to get a life. The election is over and Romney lost, but they still want to slam Obama. The man was not mentioned once in this article because this is a problem the do-nothings in Congress need to address.
My opinion - let's jump. People talk about SSI running out of money. What sense does reducing that tax make? We'll reduce out of control defense spending. The wealthy will get a jump in their tax rate. It doesn't matter what it is, they'll whine about it. They paid 70% thirty years ago and the economy was better then. I couldn't care less about the estate tax. My kids will get the same thing I did - their father's unpaid bills. And the capital gains tax rate should just disappear. It is income, tax it as income, just like interest. The only reason it exists is because the top 10% own 80% of the stock market.
who are we kidding
if we stop giving half the money we give to other countries--who burn our flag and kill us--no fiscal cliff-----if we can get guys like Romney to pay their share and get our money out of Camen Islands and Swiss bank accounts( oh and by the way he alone got back last year on his return almost 2 million dollars so he and guys like him end up paying no taxes)---no fiscal cliff----i could go on &on
It's going to get real ugly, real quick.
With the Federal Reserve, a PRIVATE institution, printing 40 billion dollars a MONTH that the taxpayers are on the hook for, who is actually getting all of those free dollars.
How about Congress opens their PERSONAL checkbooks and put their OWN money where their mouths are?
Romney would have worked for nothing (he took no salary as Governor nor as the head of the Olympic Committee). Let the other millionaires work for nothing. Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Boehner, and all the other "members of congress". Yes, I know it comes nowhere near a days worth of interest on the national debt, but it would be fitting.
I'm hearing more and more folks say we should just go over the cliff and suck it up... and after doing the math, I think I'm ok with it. Better that than leave the mess to my children and their children. Yes, I would pay more in taxes, but laying off all those defense contractors and then rehiring only the TRULY mission essential ones we REALLY can afford... well, it would put a LOT of my good friends out of work, honestly, and destroy the real-estate market in the DC metro area when none of them could cover their mortgages... but we'd all suck it up and press on.
However I will have a HUGE issue with all of this if they don't cut the other spending too. If we gut defense and tax the hell out of anyone who works, we need to go line-by-line through the budget and make sure there's fewer ridiculous items in there (example, they are bulldozing the woods near my house to create a 2-mile long trail.alongside a perfectly good road.. why? Who knows... the joggers have been using the side of the road for decades and there's never been a SINGLE injury or fatality to them. Just an excuse to spend stimulus money...
We should drive right off the cliff. That is the only way to pay down the debt, and it has to be paid down. We fought two wars, killed thousands, and now we have to pay. It is stupid for people to think that we were not going to have to pay. We can't simply kill a lot of people for free, it is very expensive, probably tens of thousands per head. We will all have to pay our share, and the rich should pay the most, they can afford it, and they got to participate in the killing just like everyone else did. If we can't get those sons of bitches to pay for it then we all have to pay more taxes so that it is paid, but either way it has to be paid. That is not up for discussion. Wars aren't cheap and they sure as hell aren't free. The debt will destroy us and it has to be paid, everyone, especially the rich needs to stop pretending like it does not have to be paid for just to prolong the fight, why the hell they enjoy the fighting and the killing so much I don't even know, unless they just thought, or hoped, that the poor people on welfare would pay for their killings and it wouldn't cost them anything, that is pretty stupid reasoning. Less stupid, more smart, please.
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