Romney still faces uphill fight to win White House

The former Massachusetts governor may have the Republican nomination sewn up, but speculators in markets set up by Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets don't see much change in his chances of winning.

By Charley Blaine Apr 2, 2012 3:16PM
Charley BlaineThe good news for Mitt Romney is that nobody expects him to lose the Republican nomination for president.

The bad news for Mitt Romney is that the near certainty of his nomination isn't helping how investors in futures based on the election view his chances. They think he's got a big selling job ahead.

Trading on the election on Intrade.com, the Irish trading site that lets you take positions for or against just about everything, gives Romney only a 37% chance of winning the election. That's down slightly from the last time we looked at Intrade's trading trends.

President Obama has a 60.3% change of winning re-election. That probability has changed little in the last six weeks.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., who has vowed to stay in the primary campaign, has a 1% chance of winning the Republication nomination and a 0.3% chance of winning the presidency.

What's pushing the odds lower for Romney may well be that a huge gender gap has opened up over his candidacy.

In 12 swing states -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin -- included in a Gallup/USA Today survey, Obama leads Romney 51% to 42%.

In mid-February, Obama took less than half of the vote from women under 50 years old. Now he wins more than 60% of them. (Obama is ahead of Romney among all women by 18 points.)

That rapid consolidation of women behind Obama, the Washington Post said today, "seems directly attributable to the focus in the Republican presidential primary on contraception and other reproductive-rights issues during the past six weeks or so."

A number of party leaders have thrown up their hands in frustration — insisting that the candidates should be spending all their time talking about the economy.

Intrade runs what it calls "predictive" markets, letting investors speculate on the outcomes of any number of possible events. If you buy shares in an Obama win, you'll be paying $6 or so. There is always someone else on the other side of the trade. If Obama wins, you get $10. If he doesn't, you get nothing.

The Iowa Electronic Markets system, which also lets you speculate on the election, sees the Democrat, i.e., Obama, taking 52.6% of the popular vote, with a 60% chance of winning the popular vote. The Iowa system only looks at the popular vote.
225Comments
Apr 2, 2012 9:29PM
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Unless we are suddenly attacked by Iran or North Korea, the only 3 issues that matter to voters are:

1) The economy
2) The economy
3) The economy
Apr 2, 2012 5:39PM
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Do I detect hatoraid here?

 

Pubs doing it to themselves. You can't keep bringing up social issues (especially long fought womens issues, like abortion, birth control, etc) and hope to win. You lose women, you lose the election. Period.

 

Of course, they can thank Ricky rick for that. If they want to win, they have to stay focused on 3 things, economy, deficit, taxes. Straying into social issues they will lose every single swing state doing that.

Apr 2, 2012 5:56PM
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insisting that the candidates should be spending all their time talking about the economy,

If politicians on both sides of the of the political spectrum haven't heard what Main Street has been screaming about since the start of the Great Recession .. there may be some new faces in Washington this coming winter.

Apr 3, 2012 9:53AM
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No one in Congress is for the working man, there in it for themself's. Nothing will change until the system changes, but that won't happen because there not (Congress) going to allow that. We've lost our way as a society and have turned into nothing but selfishness and self-pity. Shameful!
Apr 2, 2012 3:55PM
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As a former republican (GB did it in for me) it's anybody but a republican.....
Apr 2, 2012 10:05PM
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The next President will be elected for the content of  His charecter,nothing else will do.The days of party loyalty are over,for all but the blind followers of an ideolegy the majority of us cannot afford.

Apr 3, 2012 12:10PM
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I am a 30 year member of the Republican Party who finally understands that with less government in our lives as a cornerstone of our party; we (Republicans) have yet earned the right to gain the added benefits that go along with a less regulated private sector. Until we live by examples that don’t put added burdens upon society such as failures in Wall Street, constant schemes to provide 2% of our society with more than 80% of our countries net wealth, I can’t ask others to carry the burden. I now fully understand that we are a government of the people, by the people, and by asking for less government, we are essentially asking for a government (our people) to make decisions based on just a few people in the private sector who make up the majority of the 2% that have added so much to our present problems. Therefore, I will always put the will of the majority before my personal gain, especially if I know that my gain will only be made on the backs of others, to the detriment of the majority in society. Anything less is simply an immoral act in the face of God.    

Apr 2, 2012 11:23PM
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I can't imagine voting for Obama again.  I am not better off today than 3 years ago.  I would not vote for Santorum or Newt either.  I think a vote for Ron Paul would be a waste of a vote.  I guess I am left for Romney.  Maybe all of these people should be thrown out of office.  By the way, its the Congress and Senate that control most of laws, etc.  The president doesn't have that much power.
Apr 2, 2012 6:45PM
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As former democrat and republican (The whole Congress did it in for me) Any Body but Nancy Pelosi. Even a box of rocks would do better!!!
Apr 3, 2012 10:56AM
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What a surprise!?  MSN shilling for Obama--didn't see that coming.  Oh, wait this is the 2nd time around for this crap!
Apr 3, 2012 10:25AM
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This is another Obama promoting article by the socialist news media.
Apr 3, 2012 9:08AM
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More Obama kissyface from MSDNC and the Democrat-Media Complex.
Apr 3, 2012 1:29AM
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our freedom is our only true power, people. the fourth branch of government was always the people. long ago they made us forget about that fourth branch. i'm telling you people once we loose our freedom we are no longer in control of our lives. the other three branches will have won out.
Apr 3, 2012 7:26AM
Apr 2, 2012 5:46PM
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Whether Romney can win or not remains to be seen. I'd bet a dollar to a doughnut that the better odds are BO self destructing. Go the wrong way with Israel, keep ticking off religious organizations. Gasoline at 6-$7.00 a gallon. Sorry, he's on the wrong side of too many folks right now. Is Romney better than BO? A lot of folks will say anybody is.

It's gonna take a lot more than that.

 

Economy has to fold hard.

 

Don't get me wrong, Romney could win, but it's unlikely. Religion just isn't that important to people these days, neither is Isreal. Gas is important, but it doesn't actually move votes.

 

As it is in the general POTUS election, Romney has to win the Red Leaning States, and 70% of the swing votes. He only leads Iowa, Missouri currently.

 

Apr 3, 2012 12:37PM
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Let's face it, we all want to succeed in life, Some are just willing to walk all over you to get there. Yet there is help if we can only realize that we need to trust in what the majority wants. Our founding fathers had it right when they allowed for a system of government with checks and balances. Public Corporations are structured for the top 2% to operate and decide how a company is to function. Therefore, it all goes back to what I said earlier; some are willing to walk all over you to get what they want. We Republican's have forgotten one of its most important men in history; Abraham Lincoln, who we can agree wanted to Unite this country. The Rebublican leaders ever since then have operated towards the opposite for a very long time.  
Apr 3, 2012 1:35PM
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I suppose that the greatest way to swing a voters decision is to crate a desire in them to be like everyone else. Nevermore has the liberal press tried so desperately to find any foothold to keep the Chosen one in office, Please wake up America.

 

Apr 3, 2012 1:42PM
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Today's Rasmussen Poll - Romney 45%  Obama 44%

 

Obama disapproval rating at 57%

Apr 2, 2012 10:50PM
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Does it really matter who wins the White House in November when an addled Supreme Court and body politic insist that unrestricted corporate cash in the halls of Congress = First Amendment compliance? Until that most fundamental of problems is fixed, NOTHING will change for the better across the fruited plain.

Apr 3, 2012 5:22PM
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I would rather have President Obama than the Stooges that are running for the Republican nomination. This economic situation did not occur over the course of one presidential term, but several and it will not be repaired with one term either. I remember how much venom spewed over President Bush and how much so many people absolutely hated him, but let's be realistic, the President did not create the economic collapse any more than one President will make it go away. You are all forgetting a few detaills: Those technological innovations  you all seem to want to own have replaced many workers and as yet, another new marketplace has not been created to establish new jobs.  The more technology we depend on, the less of a work force we will need. I know if is a lemming attitude to bitch about politics and the president du jour, but try pulling your heads out of your collective asses long enough to react as thinking adults. (or try anyways) to see that banks and credit cards, and abuse of credit and greed created this, not Mr. Bush or Mr. Obama.  But President Obama should be given the chance to finish what he started, not let Mitt Romney, the duplicitious businessman have a stab at making things get even worse. Do you REALLY think Romney cares about the middle-class? Seriously. He is an elitist in every sense of the word.  Banks approved loans that should not have been, corporations are shipping their manufacturing facilities to dirt-cheap labor in Asia and Walmart is selling out this country for a profit and you want to blame the president? Take a look at history once in a while, and see what happened in the past. One of the presidents that is so admired is FDR, a man that destroyed crops, livestock and jobs DURING the height of the Depression and who asked Churchill to have an incident take place that would force us into war. We had to sell war bonds to finance our troops, and we came in at the end of the war, but the war, not FDR, got us out of the Depression. In the meantime, FDR is still considered a hero. Pick up a history book once in a while. If you do not respect the president we have, how do you expect the rest of the world to do so? Calling him insulting names shows your ignorance as well as poor breeding. YOU take the pressure of that job, and see how well you do! You are clueless!
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