GOP faces a tough battle to win White House
2 political futures markets see Democrats winning at least the popular vote. Ireland's Intrade puts the odds of an Obama win at nearly 60%.
Two political futures markets see Obama winning the election. But Democrats shouldn't get too cheerful. They may not retain the Senate and probably won't win back the House of Representatives.
According to Intrade.com, the Irish company that lets investors speculate on just about everything, including elections, Obama has a 59.7% chance of winning the election. That's down from 59.9% on Monday and 61.4% on March 12.
The Iowa Electronic Markets looks at popular votes and sees the Democrats winning 51% of the popular vote vs. 48.3% for Republicans. In a separate look at the election -- the chances of winning the most votes outright -- Obama has a 62% chance.
Both markets require you to put cash in to vote. Intrade won't take credit cards because the government regards speculating on political elections as gambling. Iowa gets around the problem because its sponsor, the University of Iowa's College of Business, uses the information for research purposes.
What makes both interesting is that they do come quite close to accurately predicting electoral outcomes. Intrade, for example, came closer to predicting the outcome of the Ohio Republican primary -- a narrow Mitt Romney win -- than nearly all pollsters.
It does give Romney a 96% chance of winning the Illinois primary and a 90.2% chance of winning the Republican nomination.
Intrade does not have a perfect track record. It wrongly predicted Romney would win the Iowa caucuses and Colorado.
Intrade has been in business since 2001 and opened its political markets in 2004. According to Bloomberg BusinessWeek, the site has been a go-to source for reporters and political junkies since the 2008 presidential race, when it predicted Obama would win 364 electoral college votes. Obama ended up with 365.
The two markets graphically show how Obama's fortunes have changed. After the death of Osama bin Laden, the Intrade saw the odds of an Obama win soar to about 70%. The budget battle and financial turmoil last summer and early fall cut the odds down to maybe 46%. But the markets began to see Obama's chances improve as the caucuses and primaries got under way.
By early February, the odds of an Obama win hit 60% and haven't changed much since.
IEM's daily market data show a similar trendline.
Well DUH,,, Block all the voter ID laws the states are trying to implement and you have a bunch of voters who couldn't find thier a**hole in the dark with both hands deciding the fate of our country.
Hows that Hope and Change working for ya???
People, It wouldn't matter who was President either the right or the left the debt was going to skyrocket, we were broke when President Obama came to the Office of the President of the United States. Let's face it people,either way whoever was President was going to have to pay the bills acquired by the Federal Government, and just to keep the everyday occurrences functioning. I don't know about you, but I know my bills keep coming even if I don't have the money. So, the same thing occurs with the Government. Broke or not we owe people, and let's not forget the wars. The President no matter the party would have been in an unknown situation, going threw trail and error. The Government is not a business it is to big, so just because you ran a company may not be enough to help you thru the many facets of the Government. That's why they have Advisors.
I can understand the futures markets favoring the incumbant before there is even a GOP nominee muchless the first debate with Obama. If Romney (or whomever) makes issues of the record of this administration, it will be a very close election. My hope is that we can have a fair and honest election (I know this won't happen) and that we can unite behind our elected leadership (this won't either) but we all know the chances of those things coming to pass.
Now that Obama has nearly a complete term under his belt he is probabaly qualified to be president - unlike 2008. His inexperience can't be the key issue this time around. His record will be and in that arena, he may have trouble. He has boosted the national debt to the stratisphere and the only way out now is for the debt to be monitized. How can someone be re-elected when that is the record on which the incumbant has to run? Time will tell.
InTrade might be right, at this moment in time. The important timeframe is 3 weeks before the election. Ronald Reagan was behind Jimmy Carter up till the last week or so.
It would be weird if the Dimocrats actually made the 8+ unemployment rate as less than the 5% during the Bush presidency. Oh well. The republic will stand, still has to work at doing worse than some of the historical presidents.
Good data, thank you.
"WE" must raise taxes!! This shows how ignorant people are in this country...how else do you provide for the sick, poor, old, and unemployed?? WE pay hardly anything compared to other nations...come on!!
Greedy people...spend on the longterm health of this country. The rich should pay more, but I think "we" all should pay a higher tax rate and raise min. wage to a living standard.
This country is really in poor shape...unintelligent, lazy, entitled, and a ton of other adjectives that explains why unemployment is high and other reasons that "we" as americans are in bad shape. To blame Obama for decades of bad trading patterns and lack of saving in bank accounts is not right. Take it upon yourself to help fix our current situation.
Don't blame Obama for American entitled attitude. Our society is lame!! Corporations run this country. The middle class is getting smaller and smaller...this has been happening since the 60's.
At least Obama represents Americans as an intelligent figure. He will get my vote above these silly REpub's.
anyone saying Bush (either) is a "better" president then Obama is just plain dumb...but I guess a lot of Americans are...that's how we elected GW Bush 2X.
Vote Obama 2012!
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Breaking up big banks is an untested solution to the too big to fail problem that attempts to isolate and dismantle large, troubled institutions while protecting the rest of the economy.
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