The fiscal cliff just got steeper
Obama's re-election portends a big fight over the national debt and lots of volatility in financial markets.
There's less uncertainty on the political landscape. But there's now more to worry about.
For a short while, Wall Street seemed to be fantasizing about a strong Republican showing in the 2012 elections, which would have brought single-party control to a notoriously fractious and dysfunctional government in Washington, D.C. That's one explanation for why the stock market had a banner day as voters were heading to the polls, rising by nearly 1 percent on a day when there was little tangible news to justify the gain.
But after a seemingly endless campaign and $6 billion worth of political spending, Americans voted to reelect President Obama, keep Congress more or less the way it's been, and continue the divided government that's been in place for the last two years. Many analysts considered that a worst-cast scenario in terms of resolving the "fiscal cliff," the huge set of tax hikes and spending cuts set to go into effect in 2013 if Washington doesn't come up with a better plan.
Since averting the cliff would require some kind of compromise between Democrats who control the White House and Senate, and Republicans who control the House of Representatives, a continuation of the status quo suggests that the same spiteful partisan squabbling that already dominates Washington will suffuse negotiations over cutting the deficit and starting to pay down the $16 trillion national debt.
"A status quo outcome will be viewed as a disappointment, and markets may sell off somewhat in the short run," wrote David Joy, chief market strategist for Ameriprise Financial, in a brief analysis of the election's consequences. "It will be viewed as an outcome which offers the prospect for continued partisan bickering on a budget deal, and which increases the likelihood of brinksmanship on the fiscal cliff."
Many analysts assumed that a Republican sweep, including control of both houses of Congress, would have raised the likelihood of a deal to rescind most or all of the tax increases scheduled to go into effect in 2013—which amount to about $545 billion. But Obama wants to raise taxes on the wealthy, which Republicans have said they won't tolerate.
That portends a nasty standoff similar to the meltdown that occurred when the U.S. borrowing limit needed to be raised in the summer of 2011, and bitter partisan wrangling went till the very last second. The borrowing limit did get raised, but the needless 11th-hour drama—plus the collapse of a broader deal to corral the mushrooming national debt—led to the first-ever downgrade in the U.S. credit rating. Over the next month, the stock market fell by seven percent.
So it's little wonder that Wall Street expects more of the same when an even bigger set of deadlines hits at the end of the year. "In a scenario in which the political makeup inside the beltway is largely unchanged from last summer, we expect an intense battle," investment bank UBS advised clients in a research note ahead of the election.
There are still plenty of ways that a divided Washington could steer clear of the cliff and spare the economy another unneeded shock. President Obama, who hasn't staked out a strong stance on deficit reduction, could grant House Republicans a few of their priorities—which mostly involve spending cuts—in order to reach a compromise. Chastened Republicans might show a stronger inclination to solve problems rather than scoring political points. Business leaders, who have been heavily lobbying for a solution, might finally bang some sense into the politicians.
But none of that will happen for a while, if it happens at all. In the meantime, brace for a few weeks that may be the bumpiest of the year so far. The election is over, but the fighting probably isn't.
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Congrat's to Barrack Obama. No changes for the next four years - like a roller coaster ride, many ups and downs, only to end up where we started. soooo..... I'll keep on trying to help those who are on government benefits to start their own businesses and eventually get off of them (one way to combat the 'fiscal cliff ') and to remain well diversified in all portfolios I manage.
As aways, I'll be 'shorting like a madman' through this volatility (like today)- My favorite thing to do to the 'big boy's" .
To the 47% on the dole ? I, and many of my peers will be pushing for you guys to enter the work force- get ready- we're here to help you become self sufficient.
I hope you are all ready for the Hope and Change our so called leader is promising! I mean look at that
cool emblem/ logo that signifies Obama!The last time I saw any leader pushing his own emblem/logo like this his name was Hitler!! That is scary for everyone.
Nobama re-elected...god help us all...
The cliff is approaching, and thanks to the voting public ignoring the obvious items like bailing out automakers, banks and mortgage companies, NOTHING will get done thanks to last night's outcome. When the truck drives over it, it will be REAL bad for the U.S. Europe is about to go belly up, and a NEW recession is all but imminent. At least if Romney got elected, the wild card COULD have played a good hand.
But now, it's all but assured that this country will sink into the 10th level of he!!. Thank you Nobama supporters, I'll sleep better tonite...
That sounds awfully like Republicans. LOSERS!
You all are losers. Republican House members better take the grand bargain or they'll be out in 2014.
We're moving forward, losers. Don't get in our way, ever again!
What a bunch of whiners.... good grief.....How about you try and get behind the country instead of trying to hobble it with bickering. Yes, here we go again, but not because of the President, because of the whiners... hey there is a catchy name for a new polictical party.... The Whiners..... good grief.
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Breaking up big banks is an untested solution to the too big to fail problem that attempts to isolate and dismantle large, troubled institutions while protecting the rest of the economy.
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