Romney still faces uphill fight to win White House
The former Massachusetts governor may have the Republican nomination sewn up, but speculators in markets set up by Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets don't see much change in his chances of winning.
The bad news for Mitt Romney is that the near certainty of his nomination isn't helping how investors in futures based on the election view his chances. They think he's got a big selling job ahead.
Trading on the election on Intrade.com, the Irish trading site that lets you take positions for or against just about everything, gives Romney only a 37% chance of winning the election. That's down slightly from the last time we looked at Intrade's trading trends.
President Obama has a 60.3% change of winning re-election. That probability has changed little in the last six weeks.
Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., who has vowed to stay in the primary campaign, has a 1% chance of winning the Republication nomination and a 0.3% chance of winning the presidency.
What's pushing the odds lower for Romney may well be that a huge gender gap has opened up over his candidacy.
In 12 swing states -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin -- included in a Gallup/USA Today survey, Obama leads Romney 51% to 42%.
In mid-February, Obama took less than half of the vote from women under 50 years old. Now he wins more than 60% of them. (Obama is ahead of Romney among all women by 18 points.)
That rapid consolidation of women behind Obama, the Washington Post said today, "seems directly attributable to the focus in the Republican presidential primary on contraception and other reproductive-rights issues during the past six weeks or so."
A number of party leaders have thrown up their hands in frustration — insisting that the candidates should be spending all their time talking about the economy.
Intrade runs what it calls "predictive" markets, letting investors speculate on the outcomes of any number of possible events. If you buy shares in an Obama win, you'll be paying $6 or so. There is always someone else on the other side of the trade. If Obama wins, you get $10. If he doesn't, you get nothing.
The Iowa Electronic Markets system, which also lets you speculate on the election, sees the Democrat, i.e., Obama, taking 52.6% of the popular vote, with a 60% chance of winning the popular vote. The Iowa system only looks at the popular vote.
PinballPlayer,----Yours NUT'S! Women rule over the men and politicians in the United States and NO women gets denied health services in America because of religious beliefs!!! You people LIE about everything,-- makes me sick!!!
Another liberal scumbag that discriminates based on a persons skin color and gender! It's the white male that gets discriminated against in America! Women are catered to hand and foot!
Let see. Religious freedom??? Give me a break. There is no religious freedom when women are denied health services because of other's religious beliefs. If you are a woman who works for a company where the owner is some sort of religious zealot, and does not want to offer certain health services, then that is plainly wrong. Furthermore, what is to stop other companies from not offering different services that they do not believe in? True religous freedom is to make the services available, and let the individual person decide on whether they will use those services. Is that too complicated to understand?
If you are a woman, and support the Republican party, you have the same amount of logic as a black ban supporting the KKK. The Republican Party is not interested your your religous freedoms. They are interested in supporting their leader's religious freedoms.
Americans will not allow the bitter pill to be offered. Mitt Romney and Obama are similar in make up, but the current political establishment (both parties)will not allow constraints on spending. When Obama finishes his second term the debt will top over $21 to $23 Trillion. Eventually the US bonds will entertain a higher interest rate....also, under a second term Obama monetary capitol flight and silent wealth confiscation will quicken, economic downturns will worsen. Obama is being set to become King Obama, we will see the beginning of the end for our style of government, it has already begun and we can't change course. The only hope our country had was Ron Paul, but he prescribed a bitter pill and we would not take the medicine.
Obama care is going to destroy America and Mitt Romney created it with his unconstitutional mandates and Romney care! Mitt Romney deserves all the credit for the damage Obama care is going to do in America!! HE DESERVES ALL THE CREDIT!
Romney care is going to destroy AMERICA!!
Establishment Mitt Romney supports,----- TARP!!
Mitt Romney lead the fight for Romney care and Obamacare. Romney's own advisor admits Romney care was the blueprint for Obamacare.
RINO Romney supports,---CAP-AND-TRADE on a Global basis!
Romney supports more GUN CONTROL at a Federal level!
Romney supports more STIMULUS SPENDING!
establishment Mitt Romney supports the MAN MADE GLOBAL WARMING HOAX!
Mitt Romney supports increased RESTRICTION and REGULATION thru the EPA!!!
Mitt Romney wants to regulate and restrict everything in the U.S.A.!
Mitt Romney isn't a Republican or Conservative He is a SOCIALIST! Anyone that supports Romney isn't a conservative either. If a person voting for this Socialist Romney says he is a Republican HE IS A LIAR!! MITT ROMNEY supports everything Barack Hussein Obama does! waraksas,----DON'T VOTE FOR MITT ROMNEY AND TELL ME YOUR DOING AMERICA A FAVOR, YOUR A LIAR!
boy the Its a scary world out there folks really are in full bloom here ooooonnnoo that black bogie man is going to get you ooooooooooooooooooo
the world will end soon oooooooo
the economy is in free fall oooooo noooo
we will have no freedom soon oooo nooo
he is really an athiest killing the unborn aaaaaaaaaaa the horror
he is a muslim socialist OMG
jeez take your medication
Mitt Romney and Romney care is the definition of a big government Socialist. Romney spent his entire career governing as a liberal that run left of Teddy Kennedy and has been the most pro-abortion, pro-gay rights socialist in the nation. He campaigned for Governor of Massachusetts as pro-choice and was endorsed by pro-abortion groups. Romney is a DRAFT DODGER with more than 3 deferments from serving in Vietnam. I'm a base conservative and I'll never vote for Mitt Romney! The best words to describe establishment RINO Romney is,---FLIP FLOPPING,----FAKE,---PHONY,----POSER,---ELITIST that stands for nothing!
The Republican party is gone! The GOP isn't any different from the Dems anymore. They won't get my vote anymore and I been a lifelong Conservative. If Mitt Romney gets the Republican nomination, the GOP is not the party of conservativism and they deserve to LOSE! RINO Romney has NO chance of beating Barack Hussein Obama! It's HILARIOUS thinking Romney will beat Obama!
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Breaking up big banks is an untested solution to the too big to fail problem that attempts to isolate and dismantle large, troubled institutions while protecting the rest of the economy.
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