Romney still faces uphill fight to win White House

The former Massachusetts governor may have the Republican nomination sewn up, but speculators in markets set up by Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets don't see much change in his chances of winning.

By Charley Blaine Apr 2, 2012 3:16PM
Charley BlaineThe good news for Mitt Romney is that nobody expects him to lose the Republican nomination for president.

The bad news for Mitt Romney is that the near certainty of his nomination isn't helping how investors in futures based on the election view his chances. They think he's got a big selling job ahead.

Trading on the election on, the Irish trading site that lets you take positions for or against just about everything, gives Romney only a 37% chance of winning the election. That's down slightly from the last time we looked at Intrade's trading trends.

President Obama has a 60.3% change of winning re-election. That probability has changed little in the last six weeks.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., who has vowed to stay in the primary campaign, has a 1% chance of winning the Republication nomination and a 0.3% chance of winning the presidency.

What's pushing the odds lower for Romney may well be that a huge gender gap has opened up over his candidacy.

In 12 swing states -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin -- included in a Gallup/USA Today survey, Obama leads Romney 51% to 42%.

In mid-February, Obama took less than half of the vote from women under 50 years old. Now he wins more than 60% of them. (Obama is ahead of Romney among all women by 18 points.)

That rapid consolidation of women behind Obama, the Washington Post said today, "seems directly attributable to the focus in the Republican presidential primary on contraception and other reproductive-rights issues during the past six weeks or so."

A number of party leaders have thrown up their hands in frustration — insisting that the candidates should be spending all their time talking about the economy.

Intrade runs what it calls "predictive" markets, letting investors speculate on the outcomes of any number of possible events. If you buy shares in an Obama win, you'll be paying $6 or so. There is always someone else on the other side of the trade. If Obama wins, you get $10. If he doesn't, you get nothing.

The Iowa Electronic Markets system, which also lets you speculate on the election, sees the Democrat, i.e., Obama, taking 52.6% of the popular vote, with a 60% chance of winning the popular vote. The Iowa system only looks at the popular vote.
Apr 3, 2012 7:59AM

PinballPlayer,----Yours NUT'S! Women rule over the men and politicians in the United States and NO women gets denied health services in America because of religious beliefs!!! You people LIE about everything,-- makes me sick!!!

Another liberal scumbag that discriminates based on a persons skin color and gender! It's the white male that gets discriminated against in America! Women are catered to hand and foot!




Apr 3, 2012 7:42AM

Let see.   Religious freedom???  Give me a break.  There is no religious freedom when women are denied health services because of other's religious beliefs.  If you are a woman who works for a company where the owner is some sort of religious zealot, and does not want to offer certain health services, then that is plainly wrong.  Furthermore, what is to stop other companies from not offering different services that they do not believe in?  True religous freedom is to make the services available, and let the individual person decide on whether they will use those services.  Is that too complicated to understand?


If you are a woman, and support the Republican party, you have the same amount of logic as a black ban supporting the KKK.  The Republican Party is not interested your your religous freedoms.  They are interested in supporting their leader's religious freedoms.

Apr 3, 2012 7:36AM

Americans will not allow the bitter pill to be offered.  Mitt Romney and Obama are similar in make up, but the current political establishment (both parties)will not allow constraints on spending.  When Obama finishes his second term the debt will top over $21 to $23 Trillion.  Eventually the US bonds will entertain a higher interest rate....also, under a second term Obama monetary capitol flight and silent wealth confiscation will quicken, economic downturns will worsen.  Obama is being set to become King Obama, we will see the beginning of the end for our style of government, it has already begun and we can't change course.  The only hope our country had was Ron Paul, but he prescribed a bitter pill and we would not take the medicine.

Apr 3, 2012 7:26AM
Apr 3, 2012 6:48AM
Anyone is better than what we have now... but the E P A needs to be put under control and not the E P A controlling us.... energy cost need to be cut... easily done if someone has the guts to do it... and lastly.. I don't care if bozo the clown is running against Obama... he will go down in history as the worst president that has ever held office... and has set his race back decades with what he has shown... I'm still not convinced he is not from the middle east....
Apr 3, 2012 6:21AM

Obama care is going to destroy America and Mitt Romney created it with his unconstitutional mandates and Romney care! Mitt Romney deserves all the credit for the damage Obama care is going to do in America!! HE DESERVES ALL THE CREDIT!


Romney care is going to destroy AMERICA!!

Apr 3, 2012 6:11AM

Establishment Mitt Romney supports,----- TARP!!

Mitt Romney lead the fight for Romney care and Obamacare. Romney's own advisor admits Romney care was the blueprint for Obamacare.

RINO Romney supports,---CAP-AND-TRADE on a Global basis!

Romney supports more GUN CONTROL at a Federal level!

Romney supports more STIMULUS SPENDING!

establishment Mitt Romney supports the MAN MADE GLOBAL WARMING HOAX!

Mitt Romney supports increased RESTRICTION and REGULATION thru the EPA!!!

Mitt Romney wants to regulate and restrict everything in the U.S.A.!

Mitt Romney isn't a Republican or Conservative He is a SOCIALIST! Anyone that supports Romney isn't a conservative either. If a person voting for this Socialist Romney says he is a Republican HE IS A LIAR!! MITT ROMNEY supports everything Barack Hussein Obama does! waraksas,----DON'T VOTE FOR MITT ROMNEY AND TELL ME YOUR DOING AMERICA A FAVOR, YOUR A LIAR!

Apr 3, 2012 5:34AM
good bargains, Normally, I don't get into personal debates as we all have our opinions. The facts are that the timetable for ending the Iraq war was set by GWB before he ever left office. BO just let it occur. As Commander in Chief of our armed forces, BO could have just ended both wars on day 1 when he took office. He chose to let them continue. From the day he assumed office, the wars and the cost of running them are 100% on him. At some point in time, BO needs to start taking responsibility for his own actions and we need to hold him accountable for them. I'm surprised that after 3 1/2 years in office the blame Bush gig still continues. To me, that's an admission of BO's ineptitude and using a scapegoat to justify it. As for Bin Laden, BO pulled the trigger. GWB loaded the gun. He was done in as a result of policies put in place by GWB. There are those who will argue that our economy collapsed as a result of Bill Clinton. There are those who will go back further than that. Whatever? Also BO isn't paying for GWB's wars. What do you think? We ran 2 wars for 7 years or so on a credit card???
Apr 3, 2012 5:06AM
    Maybe we blame Bush since the 2 wars Obama is still paying for belong to GW. Maybe we blame Bush because the economic collapse that cost the economy 11 trillion in net worth and 30 million jobs were all Bush's.
Apr 3, 2012 5:03AM
  I believe President Obama has been a weak President. That being said i'd take him over what the republicans offer. The candidates for the GOP have worked so hard to win the support of the tea party they've alienated most of the rest of us.
Apr 3, 2012 4:47AM
First, when it comes to religion, I'll take a Mormon over a Jeremiah Wright Christian any day of the week. Secondly, contraception was BO's assault on Religious freedoms----had nothing to do with woman's rights. The Dems managed to turn it into a woman's rights issue and what bothers me is that we let them do it. Boeing wanted to build a plant in SC. BO turned the NLRB loose on them. His EPA have raised the environmental standards so high that most coal fired power plants can't comply with them or it's too expensive to comply with them. What do you think that'll do to the coal industry? What do you think it'll do to your utility bill. Metallurgical coal is used in the steel industry. Steam coal is used by the power industry. You'd be hard pressed to walk a 1/2 mile in any direction and not cross a pipeline; yet, he stopped the Keystone pipeline. You're failing to understand that it's not what's best for the country or you or me. It's what BO wants, no more, no less. He IS a socialist. Government is his answer to everything. Fact, in 2008 we were the #1 nation on earth in global competitiveness. Now, we're #5---all on his watch. No GWB to blame---just BO himself. A final note, if you believe GWB or any other president has outspent BO---go to Treasury Direct and start adding figures. Sorry, he is the spending king of the US.
Apr 3, 2012 3:07AM
What's our choice?  The lesser of which two evils?  Obama or Romney for president?  Neither is good presidential material.  One has already proved it while in office while the other wants to get in there and screw it up worse than what it has been from what he's said and done.  So what's left?   Vote for Romney to keep Obama out or vote for Obama to keep Romney out?  Don't vote at all?  Maybe, we should all vote third party to voice our lack of trust of both them and the two major political parties?
Apr 3, 2012 3:04AM
The mormon plan for America is Mitt Romney and he spells FAILURE for the GOP! Ha, ha, ha!Smile
Apr 3, 2012 2:23AM

boy the Its a scary world out there folks really are in full bloom here ooooonnnoo that black bogie man is going to get you ooooooooooooooooooo


the world will end soon oooooooo


the economy is in free fall oooooo  noooo


we will have no freedom soon oooo nooo


he is really an athiest killing the unborn aaaaaaaaaaa the horror


he is a muslim socialist OMG


jeez   take your medication

Apr 3, 2012 2:19AM

Mitt Romney and Romney care is the definition of a big government Socialist. Romney spent his entire career governing as a liberal that run left of Teddy Kennedy and has been the most pro-abortion, pro-gay rights socialist in the nation. He campaigned for Governor of Massachusetts as pro-choice and was endorsed by pro-abortion groups. Romney is a DRAFT DODGER with more than 3 deferments from serving in Vietnam. I'm a base conservative and I'll never vote for Mitt Romney!  The best words to describe establishment RINO Romney is,---FLIP FLOPPING,----FAKE,---PHONY,----POSER,---ELITIST that stands for nothing!


The Republican party is gone! The GOP isn't any different from the Dems anymore. They won't get my vote anymore and I been a lifelong Conservative. If Mitt Romney gets the Republican nomination, the GOP is not the party of conservativism and they deserve to LOSE! RINO Romney has NO chance of beating Barack Hussein Obama! It's HILARIOUS thinking Romney will beat Obama!

Apr 3, 2012 2:18AM
Our President has left us without hope and cash to run our country and wants to transform our government from a capitalist society to a socialist nation and wants to redistribute the wealth of our people and take away our freedoms. Security from the cradle to the grave at any cost is his goal .His indoctrination by Reverend Wright for many years made him learn things we can not accept .His programs to change America is to destroy what our Constitution demands and that is a government of the people,by the people. and for the people not slaves for the Government. We must replace him in November with any candidate  that is selected by the Republications.   
Apr 3, 2012 1:29AM
our freedom is our only true power, people. the fourth branch of government was always the people. long ago they made us forget about that fourth branch. i'm telling you people once we loose our freedom we are no longer in control of our lives. the other three branches will have won out.
Apr 3, 2012 1:22AM
most people feel uncomfortable with the notion of freedom. they just can't seem to wrap their heads around it. it's much too abstract a concept. power however, they can relate to. when they goes to vote, they vote in the party who will give them that power.
Apr 3, 2012 1:14AM
amazed at listening to obama. every other word is fairness. never any mention of freedom. does anybody out there feel free anymore? i used to when i was a kid many many years ago. maybe i got it wrong. maybe fairness is better than freedom.
Apr 3, 2012 1:05AM
either way we loose. big government wins again. its just a question of time before all our freedoms are gone. glad i won't be here.
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