Romney still faces uphill fight to win White House

The former Massachusetts governor may have the Republican nomination sewn up, but speculators in markets set up by Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets don't see much change in his chances of winning.

By Charley Blaine Apr 2, 2012 3:16PM
Charley BlaineThe good news for Mitt Romney is that nobody expects him to lose the Republican nomination for president.

The bad news for Mitt Romney is that the near certainty of his nomination isn't helping how investors in futures based on the election view his chances. They think he's got a big selling job ahead.

Trading on the election on, the Irish trading site that lets you take positions for or against just about everything, gives Romney only a 37% chance of winning the election. That's down slightly from the last time we looked at Intrade's trading trends.

President Obama has a 60.3% change of winning re-election. That probability has changed little in the last six weeks.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., who has vowed to stay in the primary campaign, has a 1% chance of winning the Republication nomination and a 0.3% chance of winning the presidency.

What's pushing the odds lower for Romney may well be that a huge gender gap has opened up over his candidacy.

In 12 swing states -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin -- included in a Gallup/USA Today survey, Obama leads Romney 51% to 42%.

In mid-February, Obama took less than half of the vote from women under 50 years old. Now he wins more than 60% of them. (Obama is ahead of Romney among all women by 18 points.)

That rapid consolidation of women behind Obama, the Washington Post said today, "seems directly attributable to the focus in the Republican presidential primary on contraception and other reproductive-rights issues during the past six weeks or so."

A number of party leaders have thrown up their hands in frustration — insisting that the candidates should be spending all their time talking about the economy.

Intrade runs what it calls "predictive" markets, letting investors speculate on the outcomes of any number of possible events. If you buy shares in an Obama win, you'll be paying $6 or so. There is always someone else on the other side of the trade. If Obama wins, you get $10. If he doesn't, you get nothing.

The Iowa Electronic Markets system, which also lets you speculate on the election, sees the Democrat, i.e., Obama, taking 52.6% of the popular vote, with a 60% chance of winning the popular vote. The Iowa system only looks at the popular vote.
Apr 2, 2012 5:39PM

Do I detect hatoraid here?


Pubs doing it to themselves. You can't keep bringing up social issues (especially long fought womens issues, like abortion, birth control, etc) and hope to win. You lose women, you lose the election. Period.


Of course, they can thank Ricky rick for that. If they want to win, they have to stay focused on 3 things, economy, deficit, taxes. Straying into social issues they will lose every single swing state doing that.

Apr 2, 2012 5:37PM
Whether Romney can win or not remains to be seen. I'd bet a dollar to a doughnut that the better odds are BO self destructing. Go the wrong way with Israel, keep ticking off religious organizations. Gasoline at 6-$7.00 a gallon. Sorry, he's on the wrong side of too many folks right now. Is Romney better than BO? A lot of folks will say anybody is.
Apr 2, 2012 4:55PM

Let me see if I have this right.  You are quoting a source from Ireland for this peculiar story? That's absurd. It's even more so if you reside on the East Coast. Mr. Obama is already defeated. He just doesn't know it yet. His policies are pushing the country off the cliff from the ditch we were in in 2008. I just hope we are in time to save what's left.

Apr 2, 2012 4:19PM
As a former democrat (Obama did it for me) it's anybody but a democrat.....
Apr 2, 2012 3:55PM
As a former republican (GB did it in for me) it's anybody but a republican.....
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