Smart SpendingSmart Spending

2013 review: Were the experts right about stocks, oil and housing?

Every year we ask Wall Street and Main Street types for predictions. Let's see who was more accurate for 2013.

By MSN Money Partner Jan 6, 2014 1:53PM

This post comes from Maryalene LaPonsie at partner site Money Talks News.


Money Talks News on MSN MoneyIt's always fun to look back on predictions and see if they're right -- such as those made in this 100-year-old Ladies' Home Journal article that correctly predicted we would have telephones across the world and ready-made meals delivered to our homes in "automobile wagons."


Of course, not all predictions pan out as expected. That same article also said the letters "C," "X" and "Q" would be eliminated from our everyday alphabet and university education would be free (ha!).


Let's take a look at some more recent predictions, namely about what would happen with stocks, oil and the housing market in 2013.


No one predicted the incredible stock market boom

Before the start of the year, Money Talks News money expert Stacy Johnson talked to Richard Sylla to get an expert opinion on what would happen to stocks in 2013. Saying he was an optimist, the economics professor and chair of the Museum of American Finance predicted the stock market would see 10 percent growth and may even see stock indexes hit all-time highs.


And what did Main Street think? Well, the man on the street told Stacy that stocks might increase a more modest 5 percent.


Ends up they were both wrong about the percentages. The stock market was scorching in 2013 with the Dow Jones ending the year with a 26.5 percent gain.


Sylla might have missed on the percentage growth in the market, but he was right about one thing: Many index funds did hit record highs. The Standard & Poor's 500 was up about 30 percent by the end of the year, and the Nasdaq gained 38 percent.


Crystal ball © Randy Allbritton, Getty ImagesWow! I sure hope you had some money in the market during 2013. If not, it may be time to check out Stacy's article about how to invest in the stock market.   


Oil price predictions were also off

For an expert prediction on oil prices in 2013, Stacy turned to the federal Energy Information Administration.


That agency forecast oil prices to be about $88 per barrel at the end of 2013. However, crude oil averaged around $95 per barrel in January 2013 and never really dropped much below that.


Main Street wasn't as optimistic as the experts, and the folks interviewed by Stacy thought oil prices would rise to $120 per barrel by the end of the year.


The actual price of oil ended up falling in between the two predictions. Oil ended the year selling at a price just shy of $100 per barrel.


Housing predictions make for 0 in 3

Both Wall Street and Main Street were on the same page when it came to housing market predictions. But that doesn't mean they were right.


Real estate website Zillow surveyed more than 100 housing experts and boiled down their predictions into one Wall Street worthy estimate: Housing prices would go up an average 2.5 percent in 2013. Main Street agreed, saying a 3 percent rise in real estate values was their guess.


However, they were both way off. Information intelligence firm CoreLogic says, as of the third quarter of 2013, housing prices had jumped by 12 percent. That's good news for those of you with underwater mortgages.


In the battle between Wall Street and Main Street, no one seemed to do a good job making predictions for 2013. If we have to pick a winner, the nod probably goes to Wall Street since they called the record stock indexes.


More on Money Talks News:

7Comments
Jan 7, 2014 9:34AM
avatar
You forgot Obamacare being a desastor! That was predicted by many! And probably will be the biggest tax burden to the USA in it's history... yes even bigger than any war! Those numbers are out there....
Jan 7, 2014 12:35PM
avatar
Go ahead you silly SOB leftist progressive's,  shut down your natural gas production now and keep warm.
Jan 6, 2014 10:16PM
avatar
Financial predictions work partly on hope and partly on economic growth... both of which were slammed down by a president and greedy politicians who were working feverishly to keep the economy in the crapper. God forbid they let anyone but their financial backers prosper or, at the very least, have any financial security.
Jan 7, 2014 1:39PM
avatar
 

Then the gay rights came along and claimed I'm the BOSS!!

 

When the Lord made man, all the parts of the body argued over who would be boss.

The brain explained that since he controlled all the parts of the body, he should be boss. The legs argued that since they took man wherever he wanted to go, they should be boss. The stomach countered with the explanation that since he digested all the food, he should be boss. The eyes said that without them man would be helpless, so they should be boss. Then the azzhole applied for the job. The other parts of the body laughed so hard at this that the azzhole became mad and closed up.

After a few days…

The brain went foggy, the legs got wobbly, the stomach got ill, and the eyes got crossed and unable to see. They all conceded and let the azzhole's marry.

This proved that you don’t have to have a brain to be boss…

Jan 7, 2014 11:41AM
avatar
what about the global warming scam? oh i mean 'climate change' ? yeah they changed the name since
most people are not believing this PROGRESSIVE LEFT WINGERS LIE THAT IS COSTING MILLIONS
IN TAXPAYER MONEY AND JOBS! and now with the BITTER COLD THAT HAS TAKEN OVER THE
U.S. THEY ARE NOW CALLING IT A 'VORTEX' !!! A NEW WORD NOW FOR LIE! SCAM! BS!
WHEN WILL AMERICANS START DEMANDING THE GOVT GET OUT OF OUR LIVES WITH THIS
BS AND STOP WITH THE OVER REGULATIONS AND LAWS AND TAXES AND FEES FOR THIS
GLOBAL SCAM! THE WARMING IS THE HEAT COMING FROM HELL WHERE THEY ARE ALL GOING!
THE STORY ABOUT THE CLIMATE NUTJOBS GETTING STUCK IN ICE TRYING TO GET TO
THE ANARTIC TO TAKE PHOTOS OF THE ICE MELTING THEN THE RESCUE SHIP GETS
STUCK AND THEY HAVE TO CALL THE COAST GUARD IS TYPICAL FOR THESE LYING
FING LOSERS AND THEN TRY TO MAKE EXCUSE AND STILL BLAME CLIMATE CHANGE!
I BET IF THIS WAS SOME CONSERVATIVE GROUP IT WOULD HEADLINE NEWS ON NBC!!!
DEMONCRAPS HAVE SENT BILLIONS TO OTHER COUNTRIES TO HELP WITH THIS LIE!!!
THAT'S OUR TAX PAYER MONEY BEING WASTED FOR A LEFT WING LIE AND AGENDA!

Jan 7, 2014 1:18PM
avatar
The market will be inflated and pinched over and over till it turns red.
Jan 7, 2014 1:27AM
avatar
There is always somebody predicting a so-called level and crediting themselves as experts. Uncle Ben deserves all the Credit for using Crack-Dollars to pump up the Stock Markets. It's those same Crack-Dollars however that will bring it down.
Report
Please help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.
Categories
100 character limit
Are you sure you want to delete this comment?

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2014 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Morningstar Inc. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Morningstar Inc. Quotes delayed by up to 15 minutes, except where indicated otherwise. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by Morningstar Inc.

ABOUT SMART SPENDING

Smart Spending brings you the best money-saving tips from MSN Money and the rest of the Web. Join the conversation on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

TOOLS

More