The push-up bra as economic indicator

If you want to know how the economy is doing this holiday season, don't even bother collecting all those boring numbers about economic indicators and the Consumer Price Index.

Just check to see how the push-up bras are selling.

• What's the size of your auto insurance premium?

Sales of nonessential items such as the Victoria's Secret Miraculous Push-Up bra, which claims it will add two cup sizes, are a key indicator of the health of the economy, analyst John Morris told Rachel Beck of The Associated Press.

We won't get into whether size matters, but Morris' explanation of why the sales of push-up bras that cost $49.50 to $250 matter does make sense. As Beck wrote:

• If women buy these high-priced bras, they're probably willing to buy other things for themselves, too. That would be a shift from the last two holiday seasons when shoppers mostly bought for others.

• Strong sales of lingerie would also suggest that shoppers are willing to indulge. That would be a change from last year when they stuck to basics.

"The Bombshell bra has been selling out, and that's not because husbands are buying them for their wives," Morris told Beck. "It's the wives buying for themselves."

Does this mean the recession is over? Don't get out the champagne yet, but keep it chilled. Post continues after video.

Morris isn't the first to look at underwear as an economic milestone. Alan Greenspan pointed to the sale of men's underpants as an economic indicator years ago, though modern views of men's lingerie have called that into question. It seems the prognostication value of the undershirt has not been adequately studied.

Disparate happenings, from the prevalence of mosquito bites to the attractiveness of waitresses, have been cited as economic indicators, but Duke University professor Dan Ariely cautions that all these indexes are inexact at best.

"We're obsessed with measurement, and now, what's happened is everybody has a different easy measurement," Ariely told The New York Times last year. "We look at the sky and see clouds, and all of a sudden they become a puppy."

Still, if you want to look for economic indicators at the mall while you're doing your holiday shopping, Morris and other analysts interviewed by AP suggest watching these signs:

• Are discounts planned or desperate attempts to move merchandise? An easel outside the store or markdowns on goods near the entrance indicates unplanned discounts, Morris says.
• Are shoppers buying necessities such as diapers and underpants or gift items such as perfume or jewelry?
• Even if women aren't getting Victoria's Secret bras, are shoppers buying items for themselves?

"When the economy is good, there's a mentality of 'buy one for me and buy one as a gift,'" Ken Perkins, president of the research firm RetailMetrics, told AP. "We didn't see that the last few years."

How's your economy looking? Will you be buying yourself a few holiday gifts this year or are you buying all your family members plain underwear and socks?

More from MSN Money:

• Economic indicators serious and silly
• The underwear index is overrated
• How to tell when the recession is over
• Countdown to Black Friday
• Back to basics (I'm spending too much!)