9/24/2012 8:03 PM ET|
Why gold and platinum are buys
The deeper worry
That strike was part of a struggle for control of the mining industry between rival unions linked to competing factions of the ruling African National Congress that are themselves contesting control of the party and the national government. All of this is taking place in an atmosphere of worker anger over conditions and pay at the mines (and in the wider society, where many people feel that the economic gains since the end of apartheid have gone to a small, politically connected elite). And mining companies are also worried about the potential for nationalization of the mining sector.
Anglo American (AAUKY), the world's largest platinum producer, and Aquarius Platinum (AQPTY) have been able to reopen mines after recent strikes, thanks to a heavy police presence, but I think both are susceptible to future strikes.
Most of these actions have been wildcat strikes not sanctioned by the National Union of Mineworkers, long the dominant union in the industry (and with strong ties to the current leadership of the African National Congress government). Instead, dissatisfied workers have turned to the rival and more militant Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union, saying that the National Union of Mineworkers has become too close to the big mining companies and that its leaders have lined their own pockets while neglecting members' needs.
A case in point is that of Cyril Ramaphosa, once head of the National Union of Mineworkers but now a multimillionaire businessman, who, union members are well aware, bid 19.5 million rand ($2.3 million) for a prize buffalo earlier this year. (The average black South African made 26,000 rand a year in 2010, the last time national incomes were surveyed. That's worth about $3,140 at current exchange rates.)
Moreover, the union-versus-union struggle is wrapped up in a fight for leadership in the African National Congress. Many leaders of the National Union of Mineworkers -- Ramaphosa, for example -- are also leaders of the party, and the union supplies solid support for the government of President Jacob Zuma. The Zuma government was rightly rocked when, after the police killed 34 strikers at Marikana, the national prosecutor ordered the arrest of 259 miners and charged them with the murder of their fellow workers under an apartheid-era law. (The charges were later dropped.)
On the other side is Julius Malema, once the head of the more radical African National Congress Youth League, but recently cast out of the party. He has called for Zuma's resignation and for workers to make the mines ungovernable.
Gold as well as platinum
And as you might expect, this economic and political battle isn't limited to platinum mines. A wildcat strike has hit AngloGold Ashanti (AU), the world's third-largest gold producer by sales, at its Kopanang mine. (Kopanang was responsible for about 4% of AngloGold Ashanti's gold production in the first half of the year.) And 15,000 workers at Gold Fields (GFI) have been on strike for six weeks.
The 11% to 22% wage hike at Lonmin alone would have been enough to rock South African platinum mining companies, since about half of the sector had been losing money at pre-strike platinum prices and with pre-strike costs. Wages account for about 50% of costs in the sector.
But longer term, platinum- and gold-mining companies face tough decisions on whether to make new investments in South Africa. If costs are rising and operating conditions are, to put it mildly, unpredictable, how does a CEO calculate a rate of return or justify capital spending? Some companies, including Lonmin, had begun cutting capital budgets even before the Marikana strike.
Lonmin also faces the need for a major refinancing of as much as $500 million to $1.5 million, according to Investec. Think that's going to be easy? Analysts at Investec have set a target price for Lonmin with a range of $0 to $22.58 a share. The shares closed at $9.65 on Sept. 21 in London.
Still time to buy?
So, yes, I think there's a good chance of further supply disruptions at South African platinum producers. Under the circumstances, the pullback at Stillwater Mining as the strike moved toward settlement -- shares were down 13.3% from Sept. 14 to Sept. 21 -- creates a good opportunity to buy into an ongoing supply disruption. As of the Sept. 21 close at $12.06, the stock has already retraced 41.6% of its gain from the price on Aug. 10 of $9.49. A 38.2% retracement, technical analysis say, is often a good level for a buy after a gain and sell-off. If you want to be especially conservative, you might wait for a 50% retracement of the gain (to $11.69). I think the current price is a reasonable entry point, and I'm adding the shares to my Jubak's Picks portfolio today.
The supply-side story for gold is potentially as strong. South Africa isn't nearly the gold producer it was as recently as 1970, when it produced 79% of the world's gold. Since then, South African gold production has been in decline, and production from countries such as China has been on the rise. By 2010, South Africa accounted for just 7% of global gold production.
But South African production is still a major factor in the global industry, especially when you consider that gold, unlike platinum, isn't facing a supply overhang. In fact, before the strikes in South Africa, the consensus saw gold supply with only a slight surplus over demand. In the second quarter, according to the World Gold Council, gold demand fell by 7% from the second quarter of 2011. But gold supply from new production declined by 6%. And that kept supply -- at 1,059 metric tons -- roughly in line with demand at 990 metric tons.
Most forecasts for rising gold prices have been based on projections of increased demand for gold; the assumption is that central bank stimulus from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will make gold more attractive as a hedge against inflation and a declining dollar. Deutsche Bank raised its forecast price for gold to $2,000 an ounce in the first half of 2013 in the days just after Sept. 13, when the Federal Reserve announced its third round of quantitative easing. Bank of America raised its forecast to $2,400 an ounce by 2014 at about the same time. Gold closed at $1,778 an ounce on Sept. 21, making the gains to those two targets 12.5% (by the end of 2012) and 35% (by 2014).
However, I think both targets, and especially the near-term target for the end of 2012, are likely to prove conservative if the South African industry is in as much turmoil as I think it is. On that possibility, I'd be buying shares of gold miners without exposure to South Africa. My two favorites are Goldcorp (GG) and Yamana Gold (AUY), both members of my Jubak's Picks portfolio. If you're looking for an additional play (or just a new one), I'd recommend Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM).
There are two other supply-disruption scenarios to keep an eye on as we get into the end of November and into December. One involves crude oil and a possible attack on Iran, and the other involves cooking oil -- palm oil in particular - and possible drought in Argentina and Brazil.
But those are commodities for another day.
Updates to Jubak's Picks
These recent blog posts contain updates to the stocks in Jubak's market-beating portfolios:
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- Apple's hidden competitive advantage
- 2 options for Spanish bank stocks
- Can emerging markets benefit from stimulus?
- Brazilian utility stocks fall on policy changes
- Should you buy on Nokia's drop?
- Lynas soars on project green light
- A smart stock for the global water business
- Iron ore plunge hurts small miners
At the time of publication, Jim Jubak did not own or control shares of any of the companies mentioned in this column in his personal portfolio. The mutual fund he manages, Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX), may or may not now own positions in any stock mentioned in this column. The fund did own shares of Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Goldcorp and Yamana Gold as of the end of June. Find a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of June, here.
Jim Jubak's column has run on MSN Money since 1997. He is the author of the book "The Jubak Picks," based on his market-beating Jubak's Picks portfolio; the writer of the Jubak's Picks blog; and the senior markets editor at MoneyShow.com. Get a free 60-day trial subscription to JAM, his premium investment letter, by using this code: MSN60 when you register at the Jubak Asset Management website.
Click here to find Jubak's most recent articles, blog posts and stock picks.
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Good advise and good picks. Wouldn't bet the farm on any of it, but diversifying with a bias to hard assets , dividend payers, energy producers looks good to me.
Just keep chipping away, and make sure the pantry is stocked, the generator works, and Smith and Wesson , Ruger and Remington are your neighbors.
Some people think that gold is a bubble like real estate or stocks were but I disagree on 2 counts.
One, most ordinary people still have no desire to get into gold, there is no huge bandwagon of ordinary people like there was in the bubbles.
Two, constant monetary easing, increasing government debt and interest rates being low now. Inflation will kick in, partly driven by supply-driven oil price increases and partly by government debt and money printing.
Don`t buy gold unless you`re a Archie Bunker.The Dow is poised to go up bigtime
when they fix the fiscal cliff.
"... where many people feel that the economic gains since the end of apartheid have gone to a small, politically connected elite"
Of course it has. You didn't think economic gains would be shared evenly, did you? A rising tide lifts all boats, snicker, snicker. Why have political connections if it doesn't benefit you? Vote for whoever you like, it won't matter.
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