Why Apple is soaring: 4 theories

The technology giant becomes the most valuable public company in history, just weeks after investors punished it for failing to meet outsized earnings expectations.

By TheWeek.com Aug 20, 2012 4:19PM

The Apple Inc. logo is displayed on the back of the new MacBook Pro David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesLess than a month ago, Apple's (AAPL) share price plummeted after the tech giant reported a lower-than-expected profit for its latest quarter. (Apple still made a whopping $9 billion, but failed to meet investors' stratospheric estimates.) Since then, however, Apple's stock has been on a tear, reaching a record closing high of $665.15 a share on Monday.


With a market valuation of $623 billion, Apple has become the most valuable public company in history. The previous record of $619 billion was held by Microsoft in 1999. (Microsoft owns and publishes Top Stocks, an MSN Money site.) 


Here, four theories for Apple's sudden resurgence:


1. Excitement over the iPhone 5
Many analysts have "attributed Apple's recent surge to investors' anticipation of next month's rumored iPhone 5 launch," says Gregg Keizer at ComputerWorld. Though the company has made no official announcement, industry observers are talking up a launch date of Sept. 12, and a phone with a "larger screen, high-speed 4G LTE connectivity, a better camera, faster processors, and a smaller dock connector," says Andrea Chang at the Los Angeles Times. Customers are similarly eager.


2. Excitement over the 'iPad mini '
Also churning in the rumor mill: Apple is expected to unveil a smaller, cheaper version of the iPad, and investors hope the new gadget will open up a new revenue stream. The so-called "iPad Mini" is expected to be a 7.85-inch tablet, priced in the $250-$300 range to compete with Google's Nexus 7, Amazon's Kindle Fire, and other similarly sized tablets.  


3. Excitement over a new Apple TV
Rumors are also swirling that Apple is on the verge of unveiling a new version of Apple TV. Indeed, Apple is "in talks with some of the biggest U.S. cable operators about letting consumers use an Apple device as a set-top box for live television and other content," say Jessica E. Vascellaro and Shalini Ramachandran at The Wall Street Journal. Though disillusioned tech insiders view this news as Apple's abandonment of its original Apple TV goal — to offer consumers a way to opt out of expensive cable package deals — investors see even this compromised version of Apple TV as "Apple's most ambitious crack at infiltrating the living room after years of trying."


4. Apple is simply undervalued
Apple is currently trading at 14 times what it expects to earn this year, which makes it undervalued compared to struggling tech companies like Facebook, Groupon, and Zynga. The top estimate on Wall Street has a "$1,111 price target on Apple (no, that's not a typo) and expects the stock could hit that level over the next year," says Steven Russolillo at The Wall Street Journal. At Apple's current rate, it's not so far-fetched: Apple's market valuation has "crossed the $400 billion, $500 billion, and $600 billion marks -- all in 2012," says David Goldman at CNN Money.


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Tags: AAPL
16Comments
Aug 21, 2012 12:23AM
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Get a lot of people to buy a grossly overpriced product made in China for pennies on the dollar of the retail price, and it's bound to create a huge profit for Apple.

Funny, though, how no one calls Apple's profits obscene...

Aug 21, 2012 1:59AM
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Apple has it all going, the IPod demystified their company, The IPhone put the operating systems in people hands, the IPad drew even more in with its revolutionary interface.  They have now seen the light, business has sen the light and the computers are flying off the shelf.  AppleTV will interface with the others in a streamlined fashion and the end is not in sight.

Apple is the innovator.  THats why is is still exploding, and that is why it is so profitable.  Not because it has manipulated a commodity.  Because it has created the commodity and nobody can touch it.

I bought in at 67, I am one happy camper.

I am about to toss my art PC Notebook (I only use t when traveling) and that wil be the end of my long line of PCs
Aug 20, 2012 5:27PM
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are you saying there isn't a fifth reason that begins with i- and ends with bubblemania?  will their next product line be i-tulip bulbs?
Aug 20, 2012 10:29PM
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making a killing trading aapl weekly options

 

Aug 21, 2012 10:19AM
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Reason #5: It is easily explained by the simple "bull$hit baffles brains" theorem. But mostly because of all of the large investments that own too much of the stock already to afford to let it go south to fast. So they will manipulate the market to inflate the price so they can entice new pigeons into the fold while they slowly start divesting before it inevitably drops due to competition and market saturation.
Aug 24, 2012 3:47PM
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Gaz, Your right.  Add to that, Apple has NO debit and both their revenue and profits are increasing by 50% per quarter.  A P/E of 15 means your making 7% per year on your profits (10.5% next quarter) and the company is successfully innovating and marketing new products.  Microsoft is the only reason that the P/E is not much higher and as soon as Apple starts successively challenging Microsoft for market dominance you will see the P/E increase to 20 or 30.  The only question is, can they keep up the introduction of new products and the answer is "probably not".  So next year when the stock price is over $1,000 per share, I will reevaluate my position.  Dear IRS,  My apple holdings are in my Roth so you get NADA. :-)
Aug 22, 2012 4:12PM
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well, most of the commentators don't have a clue in economics. APPL value p/e 14, apple value = 623 bil, (1999 microsoft value 620 bil, p/e 66). Which means, if you buy apple, the whole company for 623 bil today, it will earn that money for 14 years. around 40 bil per year average. if you bought microsoft in 1999 for 620 bil, it would take 66 years to repay your investment at 9 bil per year. once you understand this, u can talk about bubbles. if you expect apple shares to burst and go down to 100 usd, Germany would buy the whole company, punk. Ciao from the Albanian guy   
Aug 21, 2012 9:43AM
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If your not on this train your a fool.  This company OWNS the gadget market, and nothing is out there to stop it.  I wish I kept it at $300, but I bought it back at $575 and I'm damn happy I did, because it will be at 800 or more by Christmas, count on it. 
Aug 20, 2012 11:04PM
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Maybe it's because people pay $800 for a phone that Apple paid about $25 to make.  Or $3500 for a computer that Apple paid about $150 to make.
Aug 20, 2012 7:45PM
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No one ...."layman" invests in Apple nor any of the other Dow participants. You see the weak volume day after day after day.  They "players" are manipulating money...and, have seen it personally.  They "trade" amongst themselves...they arbitrage it with technolgy which was done years' ago....also, but not to the extent it is being done now.  Common sense...what "investor" could pay 600 a share...or 50 or even 25 if not if not in the "circle".  Anser=none.  Remember the AMEX that worked in conjunction with the Dow years' ago in "abritrage" until they "boys" knew that was not going to work for too long.  So....adios.  CBOT is the same and violates virtually every rule in regulated trading as have much the nepotism they had years' ago.  The "seats" rarely change. Now, they have day trades to screw with and that is what they are doing.  See a play and interconnect and watch the flow and take the independent day trades down the tubes if the volume is there.....take it for what it worth. 
Aug 20, 2012 11:29PM
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the stock stale waiting with the rattle calling the small investor to come back to the casino the moment they will SE money again from the investors they knock down the stock and cash the profit let them stay frozen with this high numbers and may be they will finish and the system will get off this wicket institution
Aug 20, 2012 7:33PM
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As was blurted out in F-troop "It Is Balloon"!
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