Netflix still in self-destruction mode

It's been about a year since the video rental company made a couple of really bad decisions. Things aren't looking much better now.

By TheStreet Staff Aug 23, 2012 10:38AM

By Richard Saintvilus 

Image: Arrow Down. Copyright: Kyu Oh, Photodisc, Getty Images

Can you believe it's been about a year since streaming movie giant Netflix (NFLX) made a pair of self-destructive decisions?

 

First it moved to hike prices when its customers were struggling to make ends meet just to pay for basic household necessities. Then it turned around and announced plans to split its popular DVD delivery service from its streaming business -- a decision it later nixed.

 

Today, very little has changed with the company, and how it is perceived and its competitive landscape have taken a turn for the worse.

 

There was some good news in the company's most recent earnings report as Netflix met its targets and reported profit of 11 cents a share, topping the average analyst estimate of 4 cents. Revenue was $889 million, up from $788.6 million a year earlier.

 

The bad news is that the good news will be short-lived. That's because subscriber growth is slowing. In addition, Netflix forecast a fourth-quarter loss due to international expansion.

 

Post continues below.

After the earnings release, the stock dropped as much as 13%, although it has since recovered moderately.

 

The question is: How did things get so bad for a company that at one point could do no wrong?

 

It dates back to July 2011, when Netflix announced the price increase, which went into effect for existing subscribers on Sept. 1, 2011. Loyal customers who once bragged about being Netflix subscribers were not pleased.

 

Under the new plan, it cost $7.99 a month for either a DVD-only subscription or a streaming-only subscription. If customers opted to receive two DVDs at a time, the price went up to $11.99. On top of that, if DVD-only customers wanted to add streaming, that required paying an additional $7.99.

 

Prior to the change, subscribers enjoyed one DVD at a time as well as unlimited streaming for only $9.99 a month. After the change, the price of the same services jumped to $15.98 a month.

 

In response, 1 million subscribers cancelled the service, prompting Netflix's CEO Reed Hastings to issue a personal apology to each subscriber via email. But many of those subscribers still haven't returned.

 

I can't help but wonder whether it's not too late for Netflix, because the competition from Amazon.com (AMZN), Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL) and cable operators such as Time Warner (TWX) and Comcast (CMCSA) has increased, and in some cases these rivals have surpassed Netflix.

 

Meanwhile, content owners have gotten savvy, and many of them are using the increased competition to charge more for their movies. And companies such as Apple, Google and Amazon.com are better equipped financially to pay for the best -- and most highly priced -- content.

 

The company to watch here will be Google, because it could make a bid for Netflix should the latter's shares continue to fall. After all, one of the benefits of its Motorola (MMI) acquisition was Motorola's successful cable-box business. So in addition to Apple's TV plans, there is the potential for Google TV to become a standard in streaming and home entertainment.

 

Let's not forget the progress that Amazon's Prime continues to make in addition to Comcast's own streaming service.

 

Competitors such as these can afford to pay for increasingly expensive content and gain control of the market, further weakening Netflix.

 

Can Netflix overcome this? Can it win a battle against Google, Apple and Amazon? It is hard to imagine that a year ago the stock was more than $300 per share. What investors are learning today is that as great as the service may have been, that did not justify an outrageous stock price or valuation.

 

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29Comments
Aug 23, 2012 11:31AM
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Ok, lets see if I understand this fully. Comcast is rising, well no thanks to a cable company. Amazon Prime is decent, but you have to pay a lot more there for the newer shows and movies. Google Tv what the heck is that? Ok, I don't have a device that supports it, so why would I want that service.

I think I will stick wth Netflix for now and since I have Amazon prime as well I think I got just about all I need for this my tv needs.At 7.99 a month Netflix is still a bargain, so the writers here don't have a clue.

Aug 23, 2012 12:06PM
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Netflix is the BEST bargin period.One month of Netflix is same price as 1 stinkin movie on FIOS!
Aug 23, 2012 11:43AM
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I live in a rural area and can't get TV, no cable, no line of sight for satellite.  Netflix has been heaven for me, I hope it does not go under.  I have caught up on so many programs I've never been able to see.  For $28/month?  Its worth every penny.  In CT, I had cable and flipped around all the time looking for something to watch, for about $79/month.  A total waste of money. 
Aug 23, 2012 11:38AM
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sure, bash the company for increasing rates but keep giving the content owners a pass, had it not been for them increasing prices to Netflix, quite possibly this entire year long drama fest would have never taken place. I for one did not mind the price change, you factor in two dvd movies a week plus unlimited streaming vs gas driving to the local video store and the prices around $5bucks a movie per rental, your still saving money. Before the fan base jumps back with the whole 60% increase stat, it wasn't 60% for everyone. Maybe if people gave up $100 sneakers, $200 cell phones, and going to clubs, they could afford $8.00/month for one of the options. Just my 2 cents.
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Just some suggestions to make Netflix a more user friendly experience:

 

1) In the listings, sepearte TV shows from Movies.

2) Organize both TV and Movie listings alphabetically

3) Add some  a greater number of new releases to the ancient stuff.

4) Larger library.

Aug 23, 2012 1:12PM
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Please listen Netflix, 

 

If you want people to flock back, get better movies when they are first available, and make them available for streaming. 

 

Who wants to pay for 2nd-3rd rate movies, or have to wait to see 1st rate ones when we can get them elsewhere.

 

Give us what we want at a fair price = company that grows and make $= Everyone happy!!

Aug 23, 2012 1:52PM
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I'm not the kind of person that needs to run to the movies everytime a new movie comes out so Netflix is fine with me. I can wait. It's better than Showtime and HBO that shows the same movies over and over again.
Aug 23, 2012 1:03PM
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Commercial-free content, a greater variety of choice, the availability of DVD/BluRay for rental, a fairly well tuned content streaming capability, and very good customer support / still reasonable monthly subscription fee; these are real advantages that IMHO outweigh managerial nincompoopness.
Aug 23, 2012 1:34PM
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People have forgotten the arrogance of the NetFlix CEO.  THAT is why I dropped the service and won't go back.  What was his response to concerned comments from his customers? In essence, he said "go away, there are other suckers out there".

 

Not sure why that didn't make other people angry.

Aug 23, 2012 12:53PM
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time for the monthly Netflix bashing.
Aug 23, 2012 3:15PM
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I dont think its wholly Netflix's fault.  You have to realize that the reason why they are raising prices is that the content providers are raising the prices to astronomical levels.  Netflix only charges 8 dollars for online content for a whole month which is really reasonable.  If you look at their competitors like Comcast, Amazon, or some other online company they charge like 4.50 to watch 1 movie.   Theoretically prices should drop when watching movies on line but instead it has actually gotten more expensive.  When you think about, it used to be cheaper driving out to your local video store and renting the same new title.  Why is that when you dont have to print DVD media and their boxes and distribute to retailers all over the country?  What I dont understand is that I can rent the same movie at redbox for 1 dollar and change.  But why does it cost so darn much to rent the same movie via your cable provider, XBox live, Amazon or even Apple?


Aug 23, 2012 3:36PM
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My biggest disappointment is the loss of movies from Starz.
Aug 23, 2012 12:01PM
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Millions have been made on the short selling of Netflix and those investors continue to circulate speculative information to try and beat down the price - hold on to Netflix if you own it, the upside is tremendous and those same short sellers will flip their stories.
Aug 23, 2012 3:45PM
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As a rural customer, Netflix discs works beautifully.  We would have to pay nearly $100/month to have a satellite internet that acutally downloaded videos in a reasonable manner.  Cable TV?  Not here.  Plus, we can wait to see television series that aren't available via antenna.  Until satellite TV goes cafeteria plan, we will stick to what's free over the air.  Netflix does a great job of getting what we want to us quickly.  Watching TV with no ads is great.  Having a 'Leverage' weekend is tons of fun.  For 18 bucks a  month, 3 discs at a time,  6 a week, entertainment can't get much cheaper.  Redbox may be cheaper (but not really if you do the math), but the selection is much smaller, no TV series that I have seen and half the time the screens don't work when you are trying to punch in your e-mail address or even pick a movie.  We tried Blockbuster DVD service and they sent series out of order and had a much smaller selection.  Even if you can trade it in at the store for a free cheapo one, it did'nt meet our needs.  I hope Netflix can keep it together.  I know we rural folks make up a small percentage of their market.  I would think that not everyone can afford an internet service that allows fast downloads for the videos , let alone where you could watch as many as we do on disc without getting the 'throttle'
Aug 23, 2012 1:17PM
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Netflix DVD for new movies and Hulu for current TV shows.  $16 a month and you can forget annoying and outrageous cable.  I'd pay more for Hulu if it would drop the ads though.
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I love Netflix.  This is one company that follows through when I have a problem which is very rare.  I will continue to subscribe.  I am a senior who lives in Northern N.Y. and during the winter months I cannot get out easily to rent a movie or even go to a movie because of the ice and snow... my car doesn't have four wheel drive.  The choice of movies and the vast amount offered is more than the others offer.  I feel I am getting a great bargain for the small amount I pay each month.   Going out to a movie is beyond a lot of people on a tight budget.  I appreciate Netflix.
Aug 23, 2012 3:00PM
Aug 23, 2012 3:24PM
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don't care if they go out. no matter how strong the pop up blocker is .  their ads get thru. no  chance for them to  get any buisness  here.
Sep 19, 2012 1:32PM
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Netflix  is still the best deal out there. It also has the edge because it sets the download speed
to work with what speed you have. This is very important for those of us who can only get a minimal
internet service. I use a Roku box because it seams to work the best  with Netflix for picture quality.
At $8 a month I get the best selection of documentaries and Movies  found anywhere.  Agreed, they don.t have the latest movies on streaming but I can wait  for the very few that are worth watching .    
Aug 23, 2012 1:41PM
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The quality of their streaming is horrible. I can't believe anyone would pay for it.
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