Top Stocks

We got blindsided by external events last week. Ireland’s cry for help followed by hostilities in Korea conspired against the market.

 

I would not be deterred. Our Top ETF Buys for last week made money versus a loss for the overall market. I’m expecting the same this week.

 

My favorite top buy for the coming week is the ProShares Russell 2000 (IWM).

 

The January effect is coming earlier and earlier. I expect small cap stocks to do well in December.

 

A team of analysts from Piper Jaffray spent Black Friday sitting in Apple (AAPL) stores around the country. Why? To count the number of products being sold.

This shoe-leather research is useful for Gene Munster, the main Apple analyst at Piper Jaffray. He has predicted that Apple will sell 5.5 million iPads this quarter, and he wanted to see how that was holding up.

He thinks the number is still correct. Here's what his team saw on Black Friday, according to Fortune: 

Are you in the cult of Amazon (AMZN) Prime? The endless parade of brown boxes showing up at your door would be the first sign.

You've broken up with other stores. After all, you've paid $79 annually to join Amazon Prime, so you might as well get your money's worth, with two-day shipping to boot.

Newsweek says Amazon Prime "may be the most ingenious and effective customer loyalty program in all of e-commerce, if not retail in general." It's such a cult, in fact, that other stores are rushing to copy it. 

By Gary Gordon, TheStreet

 

Notre Dame's Fighting Irish may have fans singing its football praises for pounding an Army squad 27-3. Yet the third weekend of November brought little cheer for Ireland itself as the country conceded its need for a financial bailout.

 

Meanwhile, the European Union and the world at large have been desperately trying to keep the dreaded debt scare from spreading. The problem is the sovereign debt crisis has been highly publicized for a full year.

 

Containment to Greece and Ireland hasn't been simple, as investors have been almost as unwilling to risk investing in the poor credit of Spain, Italy and Portugal.

 

You're getting a lot for your money today, as our pick of the day had triplets. Roger Friedman has been chatting with some of the smartest analysts at The Motley Fool and has come up with three stocks to watch and three to buy.

 

Rex Moore, Motley Fool Top Stocks editor

 

Which companies are tomorrow's big winners? In our ongoing series, I'm chatting with Fool analysts and advisers to find out the stocks on their watch lists and the catalysts that would induce them to buy.

By the end of today's article, you'll get three companies that the man in charge of training our analysts thinks you should be watching and three that he recently bought for his personal portfolio.

 

By Jeanine Poggi, TheStreet

 

It's poised to be a glitzy holiday for jewelry retailers.

 

According to the National Retail Federation, the number of shoppers who purchased jewelry over the Black Friday weekend rose substantially, from 11.7% in 2009 to 14.3% this year.

 

Both comScore and Coremetrics also indicated improved growth in the jewelry category, up in the 15% to 20% range.

 

By Jeff Reeves, Editor of InvestorPlace.com

 

Good news, boys and girls. That box under the tree may not be a pair of feety pajamas after all.

According to a November survey, consumers are spending big on electronics again and laptops are paving the way, with a dramatic increase in projected sales. And as is no surprise, the flashy new by Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPad and is on the top of many wish lists.

Though Apple is projected to be a big winner, other tablets and gadgets are seeing strong demand, too. And that's a good sign for store managers as well as people opening presents in a few weeks. Here are the details:

 

By Don Dion, TheStreet

 

Here are five ETFs to watch this week.

 

1. iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund (EWY)

 

The Korea ETF saw roller-coaster-like performance last week as tensions between North and South Korea came to a head. There is a strong chance that this type of wild performance will continue as long as strains remain high between these two nations.

 

The Korea crisis once again serves as a reminder of the risks in investing in emerging markets. When venturing into EWY or any other fund focused on the developing world, you must keep a close eye on the macro picture as well as the state of the fund's underlying holdings.

 

What happens if this is the week when we start thinking about the U.S. as a comeback country? What happens if the economic data this week -- the employment and supply-chain management reports -- kick into higher gear?

 

What happens if we are about to see an extension of the unemployment benefits that are about to expire, an extension that is incredibly important to the lower-end retailers that keep powering higher?

 

All of these possibilities are playing in my head and should be playing in yours. As Barclays put it so eloquently in a recent note, since 1961 there have been 28 times when the market was up 5% or more between Jan. 1 and October, and of those years the market has been down only twice in November and December. That statistic alone should buoy you even as it antagonizes the morbidly negative.

 

Despite some positive developments over in Europe on Friday, with the Portuguese parliament formally approving its 2011 budget and word that Ireland's bailout could be finished over the weekend, traders were in the mood to sell. And sell they did.

 

As they sold Spanish bonds, the interest rate surged to highs not seen since 2002. The cost to protect against the default of debt issued by Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Italy, and even Belgium all jumped substantially. The euro plunged.

 

The catalyst was chatter that parts of the Irish bailout package being put together by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund could result in defaults on Irish bank debt as soon as early next week. Adding to concerns were rumors Portugal is being pressured to take bailout money. The situation is quickly going from bad to worse.

 

By Eric Rosenbaum, TheStreet

 

Ford (F) plans to add 66 dealerships in China before the end of the year, according to a Ford document reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. The 25% expansion of Ford's China sales effort will focus on what are considered the tier-two and tier-three cities in western and northern China.

 

In all, Ford will have added approximately 100 dealerships in China with its partner, Changan Automobile, by the end of the year. The total number of Ford dealerships in China will be roughly 340 by year's end, according to the Ford statement reviewed by the Journal.

 

The tier-two and tier-three cities in China include Nanning, Shijazhuang, Harbin and Anyang, cities with populations of more than 1 million. Car demand isn't the only consumer trend being tapped in the Chinese tier-two and tier-three cities. It's part of a much larger trend in China, including education, health care and real estate, as the tier-one cities become saturated.

 

Here’s our weekly roundup of the dumbest stories in business this week.

 

5. Non-news event of the week: TSA security opt-outs

 

The hullabaloo surrounding the Transportation Security Administration's use of full-body scanners reached a fever pitch this week, thanks to “National Opt-Out Day.” The idea was that flyers, outraged by their privacy being invaded in the name of safety, would say no to scanning and pat-downs on one of the busiest flying days of the year.

 

It's the day after Thanksgiving, and our thoughts naturally turn to leftovers. We try to extract as much value out of our turkey meal as we can by eating the scraps -- and Michael Olsen shows us the same works for investing. (Sorry, I stretched that analogy as much as I did my stomach yesterday.)

 

Rex Moore, Motley Fool Top Stocks editor

Blame Warren Buffett, that octogenarian superinvestor of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) fame. A few years back, he let the cat out of the bag: Railroads are tremendous businesses. Our folksy friend's blessing drew investors to railroads like cats to catnip.

I hate him for it.

 

By Jeanine Poggi, TheStreet

 

Retailers are going punch-for-punch this holiday season, trying to one-up each other with discounts ahead of the Black Friday rush.

 

But will these deep discounts, Black Friday ad "leaks" and offers of free-shipping really woo customers and boost the top line? The goal is to capture consumers' dollars before their holiday budgets run out, but these promotions might have the opposite effect -- desensitizing shoppers to discounts.

 

Retailers have spent the past year unintentionally "training" shoppers to hold out for the best deals. Now, they want consumers to open their wallets earlier. But shoppers are savvy, and most realize these sales (and potentially some even bigger deals) will still be there as Christmas approaches.

 

Two Tyson turkeys are in the news this week -- and they aren't the kind of fowl you'll be eating tomorrow.

No, we're talking about Don Tyson, the former chief executive of Tyson Foods (TSN), and his son John. Don Tyson, you'll recall, was busted five years ago for taking $3 million in company perks for himself, his family and other friends.

He used $20,000 in company funds to buy oriental rugs, $18,000 for antiques and $15,000 for a London vacation. He made personal use of company-owned homes, as well as a boat, in Cabo San Lucas and the English countryside. He used $425,000 worth of time on the company jet.