Crush the shorts with this contrarian play

The bears are dead wrong when it comes to one data REIT, and you can get a 5% yield to boot.

By MoneyShow.com Jun 19, 2013 2:05PM

copyright Tom Grill, CorbisBy Brad Thomas, Intelligent REIT Investor


The recent dividend sell-off has created some good entry points for real estate investment trust investors, but true bargains -- with a wide margin of safety -- are harder to find.


Still there's one blue chip that is becoming noticeably undervalued, and the tailwinds are being driven by more than the whispers of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.


Digital Realty (DLR) -- a dominating global data-storage REIT with 123 properties and over 23.1 million square feet -- has been the target of a Highfields Capital Management short squeeze. Since May 8, Digital has been under the microscope, as the hedge fund contends that Digital's shares are worth only around $20, much less than the $59.89 pricing Wednesday.


The short thesis is essentially centered around a silly argument that Digital's earnings (or FFO in REIT-dom) aren't sustainable, and that the San Francisco-based REIT is not accounting for certain cap ex-related expenses.


It's not common for a blue-chip REIT to become the subject of a short play, and I find Highfields' arguments to be extraordinarily stupid. Why?


Digital's growing revenue stream consists of over 2,000 leases with over 600 tenants. The diverse revenue includes many recognizable names, such as CenturyLink (CTL), Equinix (EQIX), Facebook (FB), AT&T (T), Amazon (AMZN), Yahoo! (YHOO), and Morgan Stanley (MS).


As a pioneer of data storage, Digital was effectively able to build a wide moat first, ahead of the competition. That enabled the company to scale and create a fortress brand that is now over three times the size of all other competitors: CoreSite (COR), DuPont Fabros (DFT), and CyrusOne (CONE).


Digital's dividend policy of increasing its dividends paid by over 17%, from 2005 through 2012, is amazingly sound. And given the more recent drop in price ($59.89), I find Digital's dividend yield of 5.24% to be incredibly enticing.


In addition, a REIT with similar dividend characteristics would be trading at a much higher multiple, and I find the data center king's valuation of 12.5 times earnings (P/FFO) to be a real deal. The short squeezer (Highfields) has made an openly stupid pitch that has created a buyer's dream.


In addition, as Equinix (another leading data provider) debates its value proposition for becoming a REIT with the Internal Revenue Service (mainly arguing over the interconnection fees that EQIX generates and whether these fees are considered income or real estate), the market uncertainty has created more good news for Digital share prices to move into Ben Graham's bargain box.


Now is a good time to consider Digital Realty as an unusual outlier, wherein the current price has created an opportunity where all of the stars are lined up. Minimizing risk and maximizing returns are essentially the cushion (or margin of safety) that Ben Graham taught.


On rare occasions, there are bargains in which you will be able to "buy a wonderful business at a moderate price." That's what I call "sleeping well at night."


Subscribe to Intelligent REIT Investor here.


More from The MoneyShow

1Comment
Jun 19, 2013 4:34PM
avatar
Hi Brad.  Interesting piece.  For what its worth, a "short squeeze" occurs when a stock is driven up (squeezed) by short sellers who are, at that time, buying en masse to cover their short position.  Thus, the drop in price, as we've seen in DLR is the result of lots of selling (some no doubt short).  The squeeze would follow if/when all those shorts have to buy to cover, therefore driving (squeezing) the price up.  Any chance Highfield is on to something with regard to DLR?  What is their rational for DLR's FFO being unsustainable?  Thanks   
Report
Please help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.
Categories
100 character limit
Are you sure you want to delete this comment?

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2014 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Morningstar Inc. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Morningstar Inc. Quotes delayed by up to 15 minutes, except where indicated otherwise. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by Morningstar Inc.

STOCK SCOUTER

StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

133
133 rated 1
286
286 rated 2
441
441 rated 3
737
737 rated 4
614
614 rated 5
606
606 rated 6
621
621 rated 7
441
441 rated 8
317
317 rated 9
122
122 rated 10
12345678910

Top Picks

SYMBOLNAMERATING
BBBYBED BATH & BEYOND INC10
TWXTIME WARNER Inc10
COPCONOCOPHILLIPS9
HDHOME DEPOT Inc9
VZVERIZON COMMUNICATIONS9
More

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

ABOUT

Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.