Why Apple is in more trouble than you think
Max Wolff, chief economist and senior analyst at GreenCrest Capital, explains four big risks that no one is talking about.
Apple's decline has been well-documented. One need only look at a stock chart, which shows that shares of Apple (AAPL) have lost more than a third of their value in nine months. Or one could look at the number of Google (GOOG) searches for "Apple," which peaked with the stock in September 2012 and have since dropped precipitously.
But Max Wolff says that Apple investors should look out for a variety of risk factors that haven't yet materialized. According to Wolff, chief economist and senior analyst at GreenCrest Capital, Apple faces four big risks that no one is talking about.
1. Privacy concerns could disproportionately hurt Apple
Privacy concerns raised by the NSA phone records revelations could be more troubling to people using Apple products and services than those using those of other companies, Wolff said.
"You pay more to be in the Apple ecosystem than in anyone else's ecosystem," Wolff said, "and people might be more upset that they're paying a lot of money and they're still getting spied on."
Wolff likens it to the difference between a free concert and one that a fan pays to attend.
"If I'm going to see a show in Central Park, and it's terrible, then I'm not angry at Central Park," Wolff told CNBC.com. Contrast that to paying $500 for top-notch seats and then getting moved to worse ones.
"Google is the free ecosystem and Facebook is a walled garden, but at least it's free," Wolff said. "If you're paying more to be in the Apple ecosystem, and if you find out that your privacy is no more sacred than it is anywhere else, that actually is problematic."
2. Apple's tax issues could become a problem
Wolff points out that Apple has been remarkably good at dodging serious consumer ramifications from a tax policy that some consider evasive.
"Every progressivey person that is upset that corporations don't pay taxes has an Apple," Wolff said. "And at the end of their email or text message about how horrible it is that companies don't pay their taxes, it says, 'By the way, this message was sent from the biggest tax cheat in American history.'"
Once again, Wolff says that the especially high cost of Apple products puts the company at a heightened risk. He notes that when buying a low-priced clothing item, a consumer should not be too shocked to learn that it was made in sub-par conditions by a young worker. "If you just paid $1,400 for a suit, on the other hand, you expect that it was made by someone who's at least 8."
Wolff said that while "Apple has been very good at being Teflon, and I don't see any reason to think that wouldn't continue, the tax issue is not going away.
3. Google's Chrome and Android integration
Wolff notes that Google is working to integrate its Chrome and Android platforms, and this could end up being a major concern to Apple.
"If Google figures out a way to market a Chrome operating system with an Andoid tie-in, they can sell you a notebook computer which is also a tablet, and has a nice integrated operating system, for $400 or $500," Wolff said. "If they get that then they'll have a single product that is very dangerous for the Macbook Air and the iPad."
Once again, Apple's luxury pricing makes it vulnerable.
"Even if you think Google's product is less good, then $1,500 worth of Apple products nicely duplicates it," Wolff said. "It is $1,200 less good? For a lot of people that's not a question mark, because they don't have $1,200."
Even people who might be able to afford Apple's products, though, might choose Google's cheaper choice anyway. "If a lot of what I'm going to do on these devices is Google Docs and Google Drive and Gmail, and I wouldn't have to get the free frames at Lenscrafters, I could be a dangerous new kind of hipster," Wolff said.
4. The education battle
Wolff believes that schools are the next battleground between Apple and Google.
"One of the next big fights is going to be education spending," Wolff said. "If I'm a school system, I can buying an entire classroom [of students] these Google devices, or I can buy two of them the Apple stuff."
In the developing world, Google's Chromebooks are an even more exciting possibility. "If you're a classroom in the developing world, for $3,000, you can have a globally competitive Web system." Or you could get one fantastic Apple computer and a huge LED monitor, "and just stare at it."
The bottom line, for Wolff? "Some of these price differentials might make some difference."
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"If Google figures out a way to market a Chrome operating system with an Andoid tie-in, they can sell you a notebook computer which is also a tablet, and has a nice integrated operating system, for $400 or $500,"
Sir there is a thing called windows 8 may be you want to check out
I don't know who wrote this article....whoever did is in serious need of major tutoring in English grammar.
Companies, like Apple, hide their money (tens of billions of dollars) off shore to avoid paying taxes, Pure and simple. The government responds by saying fine, but just try bringing that money back into the U.S. without paying taxes on it. And when these cheating tax dodgering companies bring the money back into the United States, the government gives them a "one time only" pass, which our government issues every time. Tax cheating and immigration law in the country are the same. Both involve amnesty. Both screw the American citizen. Why should we pay taxes when all these companies are nothing but tax cheats?
Apple CEO has been making all kinds of noises about how bringing their money back into the U.S. would be the best thing the government could do for Apple. Apple bringing all these out-sourced jobs back into the U.S. would help Americans, except there is no way that is going to happen. Why should we help Apple when Apple only wants to hurt the U.S.?
Mr. Wolff needs to get out more.
I have apple, Microsoft and Android devices. The Apple doesn't offer any clear advantages over the other products, in fact, they are lagging behind in many aspects.
Remember what Sony tried to do with VCRs and televisions? After a period of time the buying public figured out that what Sony offered was available for less money from others, despite all the Sony advertising. Most of the items Apple produces are becoming commodities and consumers eventually figure this out.
Apple’s planned obsolesce scheme will only carry the products so far, despite the occasional innovation that actually translates into utility for the buyer.
Fracking-- the question emerges about the process-- why aren't the frackers forced to desalinate ocean water and then reconstitute it to contain the environmental damage? Notably, in states where fracking is allowed, the cost of water has already risen substantially.
Bernanke-- the number of people worldwide calling for his arrest is growing. Arrest? The question to be posed in this week's G8 Summit is-- who bungled first, our chicken-gizzard Fed Chair or the eggheads in other Central Banks? QE didn't work, created a global schism and is prompting war. How does that figure into their math?
Security-- WHAT security? Essentially, everything that involves privacy and personal rights have been sold to the highest bidder. Add the money scandals and you get a plausible reason for Big Brother. The Reality is-- government, business and GROUPS that conspire and collude need an attitude adjustment and supervision. Maybe instead of holding elections for who goes IN key offices, we hold elections for who gets yanked, thrown off the tallest building we can find and liquidated in every sense of the word. If leadership is now a windfall "career" field, failure must be a terminal offense.
Employment- who ISN'T asking WHY? If YOU were the leader of the Free World and looked out to see that most of your citizens were un and under-employed while business platforms were becoming richer than at any other time ever in History, abolishing Incorporation and veiled anonymity would be a FIRST ACT. It only makes sense, too bad commonsense is avoided like a plague.
WAR--- coming to a country near each of us, unless we can throw the alumni and colluder groups off the bus! Mr. Obama... a job well done, GETS THINGS DONE, not breeds more crises.
Apple is not a tax cheat. They obeyed the law and took the deductions written into the law just like you and I do.
Some of the money they saved goes into increased R&D, which produces American jobs, which increases tax revenue.
How did Americans get so stupid about economics? The Chinese get it.
Apple has been written off before and look where that ended up, the I Phone , and a total electronic and communication revolution. I don't know if anyone looks at an Android phone , but it copies Apple.
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