Can the rebound continue?

With military intervention in Syria looking less likely, the Dow looks to reclaim 15,000. Does this rally have legs?

By Anthony Mirhaydari Sep 6, 2013 3:09PM

Investors only seem to care about two things right now: The potential for a messy U.S. missile strike in Syria (with possible retaliation from the Russians, the Iranians and Hezbollah) and whether the Federal Reserve will pull back on its monetary stimulus at its next meeting in two weeks.

 

Other issues, including a surprisingly robust turnaround in the global economy, led by manufacturing, are being ignored. Also being ignored is the fact that market, after falling nearly 6% from its August high, is currently recovering from its worst oversold condition since last November.

 

That was changing on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) peeking its head above the 15,000 level for the first time in weeks as a Tomahawk strike on Damascus looks less and less likely. One worry down (maybe). One to go. But is that good enough for a rebound rally?

Buyers showed their resolve earlier in the session when the Dow dumped exactly 200 points from its early morning high on comments from Russian president Vladimir Putin that he would support Syria if attacked. First gut reaction from people was, "OMG, World War III!"


Red arrow (digital) © Riko Pictures, PhotographerBut after considering this, along with Russian naval reinforcements near Syria (including three amphibious landing ships that could very well drop a few thousand Russian troops onto Syrian soil) and weakening Congressional support (especially in the House of Representatives), a U.S. airstrike is looking less and less likely. 

 

And that's bullish since, as I explained in a column this week, it would remove a big source of uncertainty and fear.

 

The next big hurdle is the Fed decision on Sept. 18 and whether it scales back its ongoing $85 billion-a-month bond purchase stimulus. Friday's job report was pretty weak. That, along with signs of stress in the housing market as 10-year Treasury yields pass the 3% level for the first time since mid-2011, means the Fed might possibly hold off until its October meeting.

 

That's also bullish.

 

With these two concerns fading somewhat, investors are free to focus on two big positives: A market that's attractively priced after a month-long correction amid a surge in global manufacturing activity.

 

 

That explains why two of the sectors most keyed into the world economy -- materials and energy -- are leading the way higher. Crude oil is also pushing higher, moving past $110 a barrel.

 

 

In response, I'm adding to my energy/materials exposure in the Edge Letter Sample Portfolio with the ProShares Ultra Crude Oil (UCO), the Market Vectors Coal (KOL) ETF, Sandridge Energy (SD), and Brazilian mining outfit Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (VALE).

 

Disclosure: Anthony has recommended UCO, KOL, and SD to his clients. 

 

Check out Anthony's new investment newsletter, the Edge, and his money management service, Mirhaydari Capital Management. A two-week free trial has been extended to MSN Money readers. Click the link above to sign up. Mirhaydari can be contacted at anthony@edgeletter.c​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​om​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ and followed on Twitter at @EdgeLetter. You can view his current stock picks here. Feel free to comment below.


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89Comments
Sep 6, 2013 3:45PM
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Tony, please go away.  Nobody cares what your opinion is.  As far as I can remember you're never right about anything except in stating the obvious and then claiming you predicted it.  Have some self-respect and spare all of us of your useless articles.  Thank you in advance.
Sep 6, 2013 3:36PM
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What rebound?   Banks/wall st. are taking  free Bernanke/Fed money and putting it in the stock market.  How is that a rebound?  Look at today's awful jobs report.  How can there be a rebound when people still aren't finding jobs?
Sep 6, 2013 3:56PM
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I stopped reading this blowhard when he spread gloom and doom all spring, worrying people no end about how the market was going to tank. It drops maybe 500 - 600 points and he says that was the bottom he predicted? What an unreasonable jerk. He has NO business telling anyone about the markets again!
Sep 6, 2013 4:21PM
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Rebound will stay until 1) we launch missiles at Syria, 2) tapering of $40 billion a month or 3) US government shuts down on October 15. 
Sep 6, 2013 3:49PM
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Anthony, what are you talking about?  Stop the charts and get away from the desk and travel and see for yourself what is "actually" going on.  The "con" is just about done with the "markets".  You are "treading" thin water as are your 'cronie" phonies.  The "actual" unemployment/underemployed is well above 20%.  There has been no "recovery" and...yet, you continue with "charts" that have no bearing other than past and "contrived".  Now, the contrivation is becoming that obvious.  Get a clue, Anthony.

Sep 6, 2013 3:58PM
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The turnaround the global economy may be occurring in Europe. Asia and other regions, but back here in the good old USA we are seeing  a flat line. WALL STREET may be doing well, but that is not MAIN STREET.
 The Syrian situation is another story,  PUTIN will not give up his Syrian  naval base( TARTUS), and that's about the guts of it.
 Obama should do himself  And us, a really big favor, and keep his big fat mouth shut.  
Should Obama  decide to launch cruise missiles into Libya, the Russians will retaliate. It will get real messy, real fast!
 THE COMMUNITY ORGANIZER, is in over his head, and will take this country along with him !
Sep 6, 2013 4:41PM
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Come on Tony...Rebound like a 5 foot 4 guard in the NBA
Sep 6, 2013 4:58PM
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On Wednesday, the column was "No Joke:  The Economy Is Surging".  Now, we wonder whether the "rebound" can continue.

 

I would love to live on Anthony's planet.

Sep 7, 2013 5:53PM
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As for the 43rd president, Bush told Fox News last week during a charity golf tournament that Obama has a “tough choice to make” and noted that he was “not a fan” of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. “I know that you’re trying to subtly rope me in to the issues of the day,” he told Fox. “I refuse to be roped in.”
Sep 8, 2013 4:00PM
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Hava....I wasn't trying to make a point for the reasons  of having a War in Viet Nam...

 

Eventually I came to disdain the action...

As in Iraq and Afghan it went on too long, with the loss of too many...On every side.

And today we are eating shidt pond-raised shrimp from that Country, what is wrong with that picture?

 

The War had basis in attempts to stop the spread of the yellow or red hoard, from the North..

"Shades of Frank Burns (Larry Linville) in Episodes of the TV series Mash.."

Somewhat similar to Korean War, but then almost completely different, depends on Opinions.

Conceived and started... by Dwight D. Eisenhower.

Emboldened... by John F. Kennedy.

Attempts to force surrender and end... by Lyndon B. Johnson.

Same with ending under Richard M. Nixon and finishing under Gerald R. Ford (both Admins. as  planned).

I kind of see it that way and is my opinion, and not willing to debate.

We gained nothing except refugees.....

I was in Country 1966 and 1967..

Sep 6, 2013 11:35PM
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Active IRA - ummm, because chemical weapons/warfare is internationally forbidden as illegal and lawless (for damn good reasons) and the US is the world's sole super-power and, as such, the only nation able to rise above those who would block action under the auspices of the UN?

 

Not good enough Active. The Syrian civil war is not our war. Chemical weapons have been used before and the US did nothing. The US used chemical weapons in Vietnam. The US only thinks' its the world's sole super power until we tangle with China or Russia. We have to stop going around the world spreading our form of religious socialism preaching the overthrow of legitimate authoritarian governments at our convenience. We would never pull this hypocrisy on China or Russia.  1,400 Syrian lives are not worth the life of one more American pilot or soldier. These types of actions will only lead to more Bostons and 911s.

 

Sep 6, 2013 5:12PM
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Please take a side Wrong Way Tony so the rest of us can place our bets!!!!!!
Sep 9, 2013 12:40AM
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Let's see to bring us back to the idea at hand, are there or is a possibly a chance of an advantage  of moving forward within the Markets....That's a chance we should or might take?? 
Sep 8, 2013 9:05PM
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Did you see the employment numbers for the last 3months, 169,000; 127,000;104, 000.  Who is doing all this manufacturing?
Sep 8, 2013 6:28PM
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Hmmmm..

 

September 8, 2013

As reported in the Mint Press News on August 29, 2013, the Jabhut al-Nusar militia, an al-Qaeda affiliated militia headquartered in Iraq, transported and released the Sarin gas used in the Ghouta gas attack. Mint Press reporter Yahya Ababneh was on the ground in Ghouta and spoke with members of the Jabhut al-Nusar militia and other rebels and their families who were directly affected by the gas. It was they who told him that the sarin gas had been provided by Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan. The gas was alleged to have been formulated in a former Iraqi chemical weapons factory.

 

The sarin gas was purportedly released by untrained members of the Jabhut al-Nusar militia in the town of Ghouta Sham. This allegation has been substantiated by Doctors without Borders who treated the injured survivors, including injured Jabhut militia members who complained that they had not been properly trained in the use of the gas weapons they had transported into from Iraq

Sep 8, 2013 1:16PM
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Havasu, thank you for clarifying Kim Phuc's name, thought it was Kim something...

 

As a little more to the Article or maybe some interesting points....Her Village I believe was a Viet Cong stronghold and mostly VC sympathizers ...

Of course I don't believe that is a sufficient reason for killing or injuring children amongst them.

The Viet Cong were treacherous in this practice of hiding in Warfare.

But then again most enemy combatants have used this type of deception.

"War is Hell" and way too many innocents pay the ultimate price.

It is not like the Football games being played today...And it is not a game.

Sep 8, 2013 12:50PM
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I see no usage of boots, because too many other problems exist after that approach....

Blowing everything to hell from afar seems the only way to go...

And we may have to deal with repercussions later.

I'm sure we can, even if it means blowing more stuff to hell once again..

 

Teddy Roosevelt, actually had it right, the first time..

And the one thing I admire about Harry Truman...End it, Period.

And I get damn sick of fatazz General's opinions and estimates. 

Sep 6, 2013 4:45PM
Sep 6, 2013 5:49PM
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Unfortunately the fed can engineer any stock index level it wants, as long as they can create money from thin air that was never earned and never will be earned. And 15,000 is the level they have decided they want right now.

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