Comcast is printing monopoly money

By combining broadband dominance, content integration and profitable theme parks, the cable giant is building an entertainment empire -- and becoming a must-own stock.

By Staff Mar 12, 2014 2:04PM

John Falter, a Comcast Corp. field service technician, arrives to install cable service at a residence in Reading, Pa. © Bradley C. Bower/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesBy Dana Blankenhorn, TheStreet

Comcast (CMCSA) is determined to become a new kind of monopolist, combining elements of the old AT&T (T), Fox (FOX) and Disney (DIS) empires. And that makes it a very compelling investment.

The AT&T part is simple, and that is nearly in place.

By using its massive lobbying power in Washington -- it has contributed to nearly every senator overseeing its pending acquisition of Time Warner Cable (TWC) -- Comcast first intends to become the dominant Internet pipe in the country. logoThis opportunity first presented itself almost 20 years ago, through a technology called Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification, or DOCSIS. Fiber overlays and fat cables designed for video allow cable to deliver far more broadband to customers than the phone industry's DSL technology, and that advantage has only grown with time.

This means that while cable could upgrade at a measured pace, the phone companies have had to replace copper wiring at customers' homes to catch up. Systems like AT&T's U-Verse and Verizon's (VZ) FiOS are more competitive on sheer speed, but are still trailing in market share.

Combine the subscriber counts of Comcast and Time Warner Cable during the first quarter of last year, and you get nearly as many broadband customers as Verizon, AT&T and CenturyLink (CTL), which runs the old US West, combined. Another way of putting that is that Comcast will have more consumers buying its Internet than the entire Bell system.

The second leg of the plan, vertical integration, is also in place.

The purchase of NBCUniversal a year ago means that Comcast owns much of the programming going through its cable plant. When Comcast the cable company buys NBC Sports rights, or NBC network shows, or rights to show a movie owned by Universal, it is writing checks to itself.

This is what 21st Century Fox (FOXA) was after through the purchase of the BSkyB satellite system in Europe, an effort that was thwarted by scandals at News Corp. (NWS) newspapers. Having divested the newspapers, the company may try again. But they will still be behind.

The third leg, the Disney leg, is now beginning to happen. Having gotten the monopoly power of AT&T over broadband, and the monopoly power of Fox through integration, Comcast now wants the power Disney has to deliver complete experiences through a network of theme parks.

The aim in this case is not to own the space, but to gain the same level of profitability Disney has by controlling licensed merchandise from its creation to its final consumption. The Philadelphia Inquirer notes that Comcast's budget for the parks has increased fivefold since they were acquired.

For investors, all this should mean outstanding profitability. Comcast has generated more than $14 billion in annual operating cash flow for three years now, and that could be ready to accelerate. It has been steadily increasing revenue while maintaining margins in the range of 20 percent. Despite its huge investments, its debt-to-asset ratio remains less than 25 percent.

AT&T's debt-to-assets ratio is higher, and it lacks top line growth. Fox has less than half Comcast's revenue and lower margins. Disney's cash from operations is just two-thirds that of Comcast's.

AT&T, of course, has been around since the 19th century and won its monopoly status in telephony early in the 20th century. Rupert Murdoch has been building his media empire since the early 1950s. Comcast's history in its current form, under CEO Brian Roberts, dates to just 1990.

Had you put $1 into Disney stock back in 1978, you would now have more than $10,000, which is impressive. But if you had put $1 into Comcast stock, the small cable operator then run by Roberts' father Ralph Roberts, in 1978, you would now have more than $120,000.

Comcast hasn't invented anything. Its innovations have been copies of what other companies were already doing. But it has been a stellar investment, and looks set to remain one.

At the time of publication the author owned no shares in companies mentioned in this story.


More from TheStreet

Mar 12, 2014 7:36PM

Really? Item number 4 in their contract... if the signee chooses to go elsewhere for service, Comcast is entitled to the remainder of the contract in full.

Much like Verizon, Comcast is just another BIG that can't see it's own junk. All tall things fall. Some harder than others. It snowed today. Service slowed. Cold? Or crappy service? I prefer-- reliable over BIG.

Mar 13, 2014 7:55AM
After the crash and after the deal is approved, or not. Bad idea to buy now unless you like a lot of risk. Dividend sucks at this price.
Mar 12, 2014 9:07PM
Data over fiber was discovered by a Hong Kong born Chinese physicicst more than 30 years ago in the UK who won a Nobel prize for the discovery just 4-5 years ago. Nobody imagined it evolved into the essential trillion dollar Internet market.
Please help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.
100 character limit
Are you sure you want to delete this comment?


Copyright © 2014 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Morningstar Inc. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Morningstar Inc. Quotes delayed by up to 15 minutes, except where indicated otherwise. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by Morningstar Inc.


StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

123 rated 1
262 rated 2
480 rated 3
651 rated 4
649 rated 5
629 rated 6
616 rated 7
496 rated 8
346 rated 9
111 rated 10

Top Picks

TAT&T Inc9



Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.