Economists react to the June jobs report
Responses ranged from a joyful 'Yabadabadu!' to a warning to 'curb your enthusiasm.'
Here's a roundup of reactions from analysts to Thursday’s report, which showed the U.S. economy created 288,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate fell to 6.1 percent.
--"This was a strong report any way you slice it." -- Omair Sharif, economist at RBS Securities.
--"There is clear tension growing between what is shaping up to be flat GDP growth in H1 2014 and the resiliency we have seen in hiring. Typically, we view payrolls as a lagging indicator of GDP growth; however, recent periods where payrolls outpaced GDP growth suggest that we could see GDP play catch-up to the pace of employment, although the timing is uncertain. This would be consistent with the strong tone we have seen from both business and consumer sentiment surveys." -- Bricklin Dwyer, economist at BNP Paribas.
--"Still, without a clear step-up in wages, and whilst the unemployment rate remains 6-something per cent, we suspect the Fed will be loathe to change its formal stance with respect to the taper, or to the possibility of normalizing rates. The time is soon coming that the FOMC will have to change its tack with respect to its policy stance, and forward guidance. Today's release takes us a little closer to that point, but as FOMC chair Yellen's recent testimony shows, they are not there yet." -- Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING.
--"Taken as a whole, the latest five monthly jobs reports are consistent with the view that in spite of a horrendous first-quarter GDP result that was the victim of a 'perfect storm' of negative circumstances, the economy is well underpinned." -- Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc.
--"Curb your enthusiasm . . . the year-over-year acceleration is still small -- rguing that this has been catch-up. Hours worked and average hourly earnings do not imply much momentum for the economy . . . the household report tells us that more than all the net job gains this month were part-time jobs, as full-time jobs dropped by 700,000." -- Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics.
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