Here's what's coming next from Toyota

A weak yen will help drive more sales and profits.

By Jim J. Jubak Nov 8, 2013 5:16PM
A Toyota Prius drives along highway 101 on November 30, 2010 in Sausalito, Calif. (© Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)Was it just a weak yen?

Thursday, Toyota Motor (TM) announced a 70% jump in profits for the September quarter. For the period, sales climbed 16%. 

The company’s New York-traded ADRs (American depositary receipts) were down 2.6% as of the close, though they rose more than 1% Friday. Partly that’s because as great as Toyota’s results were, Wall Street had expected even more. 

Operating profit of 592 billion yen, a 74% increase year over year, was still below the consensus forecast for 617 billion yen. Partly the decline is on disappointment that the company set its interim dividend payout at just 65 yen when much of Wall Street was expecting 90 yen or so a share. 

And partly the drop is just the normal sell on the news. Toyota ADRs were up 38.6% for the year to date and 59% of the last 12 months as of the close on Nov. 6. (Toyota is a member of my Jubak’s Picks portfolio.)

I can imagine traders saying, "Record profits, heh? What can Toyota do to top this? Better sell." 

I disagree with the conclusion. But I think the question is an important one. Here’s what I think is next:

First, more sales and profits from a weak yen. Toyota raised its guidance for the full fiscal year than ends in March 2014 to a net profit of 1.67 trillion yen. That’s up 13% from the company’s previous forecast of 1.48 trillion yen. It’s important to note that the company is being very conservative on its forecast for the yen at an exchange rate of 95 to the dollar for the second half of the fiscal year and 97 yen to the dollar for the full year. 

If the yen is weaker than that -- and it closed at 98.07 to the dollar Thursday -- Toyota’s sales and profits are likely to be higher. (In the quarter Toyota exported about 48% of its production from Japan.) Morningstar calculates that a weaker yen added about 280 billion yen to operating profit in the quarter.Second, the company’s efforts at cutting costs by using standardized parts across a wider variety of models are delivering solid results. In the quarter cost cutting added 70 billion yen to operating profit, according to Morningstar.

Third, despite raising guidance, it looks like Toyota is low-balling its sales estimates. The company is still forecasting a drop of about 12% in sales in the second half of the fiscal year. That seems pessimistic in light of the company’s 12% increase in sales in October.

The stock trades at just 10.4 times projected fiscal 2014 earnings per share. As of Nov. 7, I’m leaving my target price for the ADRs at $160 by June 2014.

At the time of this writing, Jim Jubak didn't own shares of any companies mentioned in this post in personal portfolios. When in 2010 he started the mutual fund he manages, Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX), he liquidated all his individual stock holdings and put the money into the fund. The fund may or may not own positions in any stock mentioned. The fund did own shares of Toyota Motor as of the end of June. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of the most recent quarter, see the fund's portfolio here
Tags: TM
2Comments
Nov 10, 2013 6:03PM
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Jim....I think that you're a very insightful writer and I've followed you since the 1990's but running a successfully performing mutual fund is not where your efforts should be focused. You have negative returns over the past three years during a time when the market has had significant upside. I'm sure you're well aware of this but why waste your time, effort and money (as well as investor capital?). 
Nov 11, 2013 3:39PM
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jim you have been gun shy with your picks for last qtr 2014, You seem like your neutral on the mkt direction. Are seeing the great depression coming like top analysts say ?
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