How to invest around Syria

Naturally, we don't know as much as we would like to about the situation, but here's one possible scenario.

By Jim Cramer Aug 28, 2013 9:24AM

thestreet logoLet's try to game what could happen in Syria. First, it's entirely possible that the U.S. is doing something for show here. We launch missiles at the various soft targets. We make a lot of noise. We definitely kill some of their bad guys. Maybe we use unmanned planes to target some of the key people. The one thing we'll have done for certain is give Syrian President Bashar al-Assad lots of time to get into his bunker, and that means he will be safe when we do it.

 

Which is why this is so stupid. We all know he isn't going to renounce chemical weapons, because he contends he didn't use them. To renounce them is to admit that he used them. So he would have to be a total idiot to let himself get killed by this strike.

Second, when we said Assad must not use poison gas, we didn't say what our response would be if he did use it. So maybe all that will happen is that the U.S. will launch, and then we'll say we'll launch again, big-time, if he does it again -- and then he doesn't do it again. I hate to be cavalier, but isn't that the likely scenario? Then we'll go back to watching from the sidelines to see if he does it again, and he'd have to be a total moron to do it again, because we'll have made it clear that we would stop at nothing to kill him.


Stock market (© Corbis)So that means we are waiting on an event that could be over rather quickly, and when the smoke clears, we in the market will still have to deal with Congress.

 

Now, let's say the Federal Reserve were to say that it's too soon to taper stimulus because of the vicious gridlock -- unlikely, but you never know -- and we get the gridlock. Interest rates will then go back down, and we'll see have a pretty decent market rally.

 

That's why, if the market declines Thursday, as it looks like it will do Wednesday, it may pay to start buying if there is a possibility that the bombing will be over by then. There should be some trepidation by the bulls that the scenario I just outlined will actually occur. Then the rest can be bought Friday, giving Thursday to the fates.

That's my best estimation of how to invest around Syria. I, like you, wish I knew more. But as we are in a vacuum, we can only say that we should see another day like today -- so you might want to take advantage of it.


 

Cramer

 

Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust.

 

 

 

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93Comments
Aug 28, 2013 11:13AM
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Ladies and gentlebloggers.....

I Have a Dream! 

I have a dream, that some day the Billionaires will be judged more
on the extent of their philanthropy, rather than the color of their bank notes.

I have a dream, that one day we will recognize the merits of a capitalist
system which seeks to spread its largesse to the many, rather than the few.

I have a dream, that  eventually we shall see the Banks do the job of
Banking, instead of replicating the casinos of Atlantic City and Vegas.

I have a dream, that people will shun worrying about themselves and
take the time to worry about "US". 

I have a dream, that the enlightened proponents of capital will demand
the better share for labor, which takes a greater share of the risk for
less the reward, with ESOPs, 401k inputs and living wages.

I have a dream, that one day a politician will step forth who will no
longer acknowledge his gratitude to his handlers and moneyed backers,
and instead 'do the right thing' for humanity.

Yes, ladies and gents, I do have a Dream.

And furthermore, like Fat Cat, I will get to the promised land,
because I pre-purchased the seats on my Capital One card.

Have a good day all...its off to Farmers Market.

Aug 28, 2013 11:53AM
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Yes retired I am...And retired from Military in 1967...Almost retired sooner.

 

I find it "EXTREMELY OFFENSIVE" when people have "no skin" in the game or may never have had.

I've had many relatives in the Armed services including children and now a "very foolish" G-Daughter that was married to a GI.( now divorced.)

Our ex-Daughter-I-L (treats us as mom&dad), recently left the Military; Was in Kuwait, Iraq(twice) Afghan(once) and Korea....Military forced her out after almost 20 years, she contracted breast cancer and had surgery...They needed her no longer...But also hired her back as a civilian contractor doing the same job she left...She has about 3 times as many ribbons on her chest as I or other members of our family....I have 5 and other hardware....I won't bore you with my service, that only lasted 2 years.

I have also served in Veteran's Associations (locally) on Boards and have been an Advocate for veterans, when using or attempting use of the V.A. for benefits deserved.

 

Yes we have had skin in the game, and the latest folly of our G-Daughter is disturbing at best.

Aug 28, 2013 11:21AM
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It needs to be said, Irresponsible Traders are destroying the world recovery ...  they manipulate QE, ,,, they manipulate US action against Syria .. they manipulate oil prices .... they manipulate housing sales ... they manipulate the American people,
Aug 28, 2013 10:36AM
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MR.  PRESIDENT 
                               Let's see some diplomacy. TIME TO EARN THAT NOBEL PEACE PRIZE !
Aug 28, 2013 10:49AM
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Not really comprehending this "investing around Syria."  ??

 

Markets were down yesterday...

Markets are up today...

And we didn't do anything...

Aug 28, 2013 11:13AM
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LOM...I pretty much explained my feelings in the last comment.

Don't like the attitude of Black or White turbans...Towards us, the Infidels.

I'm in good Company...The Romans didn't either.

 

We have been used and abused by every Country in the M.E. and N.A.

And we have gained no respect or love from any, including Israel.

It is time to give up our Crusades and cut them loose, as the Romans did..

Or it shall be our downfall also.

Aug 28, 2013 11:21AM
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WAR- 21st Century style?

 

- Pick a backward nation sitting on oil fields. Make unsubstantiated claims AND claim the evidence has been destroyed. Buzz word it... like nukes and WMDs. Tell America it will be short. Act in the name of peace- using bombs. Plant numerous targets that give the impression that victory had purpose. Kill and kill often. Promise to rebuild using American contractors. Forego the Debt Ceiling and print new money like it was toilet paper. SOUND FAMILIAR? It was the SAME for Desert Storm and post 9/11.

  

Aug 28, 2013 11:04AM
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I can't remember where Diplomacy has worked well in the Middle East or N.Africa Area for thousands of years...

We had a little blip of Peace, that was negotiated by Jimmy Carter, one of his few achievements as President...

But other than that....I really don't recall ANY other.

 

We as a Country have spent Billions of dollars and lost thousands of Lives....For What ??

 

Aug 28, 2013 11:16AM
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A person is dead regardless of if it's a chemical weapon or an conventional one. I doubt either method is pleasant. Syria is a blimp as is Iran. All this talk of what Iran would do is pure Fear Mongering. I don't recall the Markets getting bent out of shape when we bombed Libya.

Fact is, weak markets find a reason to go down just as strong ones find any reasons to go up. The massive stocks gains this year are the reason the markets are jittery along with the fact that their will be  a new Fed Chief along with higher interest rates. Syria is just an convenient excuse for market manipulators to fleece the sheep.

Aug 28, 2013 11:55AM
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It´s hard to assess this Syria conflict, sometimes it looks like Israel has teamed up with Al Qaeda to fight Assad... even Assad, doesn´t have the profile of an extremist, he was educated in London, married to a Brit and graduated as an eye doctor... everything is quite puzzling, it´s almost impossible for the US to get involved in this mess with its military once again. Better forget it...
Aug 28, 2013 9:46AM
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i guess since we're always in some sort of war senario, then why worry about the affects of a "war"?  it's simply all the same
Aug 28, 2013 11:35AM
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This also needs to be said, irresponsible parents are raising whorish kids that go on to appear on VMA. We have a massive Drug and Education problem in this country. Our infrastructure is literally falling apart. Our Big Banks are as corrupt as they come. Yet we run around preaching morality to other countries and meddling in their civil affairs. Then some wonder why there is a terrorist problem. We need to get our own house in order First. Plenty to get done here at home, no need to spend Billions, being over there.
Aug 28, 2013 10:02AM
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Even though we've seen some pretty big drops over the last couple of days, there isn't any momentum behind them.  The volume was pathetic when we rallied, and it's been pathetic on the dips.

It seems as though Syria is just another component to the waiting game.  Markets are waiting around for some big info over the next couple of months.  Next week we get the August jobs report.  Then we get some indication from retailers about back-to-school spending levels.  If anything more significant than a couple of missile strikes against Syria happens, it will take weeks.  Markets are still waiting on Bernanke to give more definite direction to the future of QE.  And before you know it, we're going to be looking at Q3 GDP results, which will be a huge factor considering we're at 3 quarters in a row now of sub 2% growth.  For now,  it's a waiting game.
Aug 28, 2013 1:13PM
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Mr Cramer, the market, which  went down on Syria, is up today because of oil  prices going up because of Syria,  Would you consider an article about war profiteering?  
Aug 28, 2013 12:09PM
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Project for a New American Century .....1999 --- wrote about a theoretical destabilization of the ME to create a judeo/christian (both think they are in control of it) hegemony ......russians and chinese are well aware of this ......

PNAC  contained cheney, wolfowitz, peele, netanyahu, rumsfeld, bolton and many other zionists and neocons .....

And so it continues ....nothing more nothing less ......
Aug 28, 2013 12:52PM
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Remember chemicals are not weapons of mass destruction. We have no reason to go into Syria. It was said  our old Dead Buddy Sadaam killed a few Khurds with chemicals. Also Bob Beckle(dem) said on the 5 last night,somewhere over there a lady(not Muslem) drank from a Muslem Well and is going to be imprisoned for I think he said 15 years. Where is the outrage from the Moderate Muslems?  There is"nt  any-when will we learn the ONLY thing that they want from us is our Money-I say give them only Guns let them kill each other if they want.

Aug 28, 2013 12:03PM
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Evil Chris.....Think you are correct about the Canal, believe that it was Eisenhower ?

Almost forgot....

And I was reading or researching about IKE just a few days ago.

Aug 28, 2013 12:42PM
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Hey Empty
Wtf is wrong with you?  Do think we need you to defend us from the awful right?  Guess what, we need you about as much as we need a broken leg.  Go back the loser cave you were hiding in, you know the one with Jeff and the other paid political posters.  The election isn't until 2014 then 2016, we'll hear enough BS from your kind then.  Until you FU right back at you, loser.
Aug 28, 2013 11:16AM
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From what I understand the temporary Embassy in Benghazi was being used as a stage in the transfer of 400 surface to air missiles to be used by the Syrian rebels.  The entire time the US administration was misinforming the world as to their activities. Now that these missiles are in the hands of the outlaws I would not discount the importance of what is happening in Syria.  If these cats decide to use these on commercial airplanes they could easily cripple the entire world economy.
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