How to invest around Syria
Naturally, we don't know as much as we would like to about the situation, but here's one possible scenario.
Let's try to game what could happen in Syria. First, it's entirely possible that the U.S. is doing something for show here. We launch missiles at the various soft targets. We make a lot of noise. We definitely kill some of their bad guys. Maybe we use unmanned planes to target some of the key people. The one thing we'll have done for certain is give Syrian President Bashar al-Assad lots of time to get into his bunker, and that means he will be safe when we do it.
Which is why this is so stupid. We all know he isn't going to renounce chemical weapons, because he contends he didn't use them. To renounce them is to admit that he used them. So he would have to be a total idiot to let himself get killed by this strike.Second, when we said Assad must not use poison gas, we didn't say what our response would be if he did use it. So maybe all that will happen is that the U.S. will launch, and then we'll say we'll launch again, big-time, if he does it again -- and then he doesn't do it again. I hate to be cavalier, but isn't that the likely scenario? Then we'll go back to watching from the sidelines to see if he does it again, and he'd have to be a total moron to do it again, because we'll have made it clear that we would stop at nothing to kill him.
So that means we are waiting on an event that could be over rather quickly, and when the smoke clears, we in the market will still have to deal with Congress.
Now, let's say the Federal Reserve were to say that it's too soon to taper stimulus because of the vicious gridlock -- unlikely, but you never know -- and we get the gridlock. Interest rates will then go back down, and we'll see have a pretty decent market rally.
That's why, if the market declines Thursday, as it looks like it will do Wednesday, it may pay to start buying if there is a possibility that the bombing will be over by then. There should be some trepidation by the bulls that the scenario I just outlined will actually occur. Then the rest can be bought Friday, giving Thursday to the fates.
That's my best estimation of how to invest around Syria. I, like you, wish I knew more. But as we are in a vacuum, we can only say that we should see another day like today -- so you might want to take advantage of it.
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust.
More from TheStreet.com
MSN Money on Twitter and Facebook
I Have a Dream!
I have a dream, that some day the Billionaires will be judged more
on the extent of their philanthropy, rather than the color of their bank notes.
I have a dream, that one day we will recognize the merits of a capitalist
system which seeks to spread its largesse to the many, rather than the few.
I have a dream, that eventually we shall see the Banks do the job of
Banking, instead of replicating the casinos of Atlantic City and Vegas.
I have a dream, that people will shun worrying about themselves and
take the time to worry about "US".
I have a dream, that the enlightened proponents of capital will demand
the better share for labor, which takes a greater share of the risk for
less the reward, with ESOPs, 401k inputs and living wages.
I have a dream, that one day a politician will step forth who will no
longer acknowledge his gratitude to his handlers and moneyed backers,
and instead 'do the right thing' for humanity.
Yes, ladies and gents, I do have a Dream.
And furthermore, like Fat Cat, I will get to the promised land,
because I pre-purchased the seats on my Capital One card.
Have a good day all...its off to Farmers Market.
Yes retired I am...And retired from Military in 1967...Almost retired sooner.
I find it "EXTREMELY OFFENSIVE" when people have "no skin" in the game or may never have had.
I've had many relatives in the Armed services including children and now a "very foolish" G-Daughter that was married to a GI.( now divorced.)
Our ex-Daughter-I-L (treats us as mom&dad), recently left the Military; Was in Kuwait, Iraq(twice) Afghan(once) and Korea....Military forced her out after almost 20 years, she contracted breast cancer and had surgery...They needed her no longer...But also hired her back as a civilian contractor doing the same job she left...She has about 3 times as many ribbons on her chest as I or other members of our family....I have 5 and other hardware....I won't bore you with my service, that only lasted 2 years.
I have also served in Veteran's Associations (locally) on Boards and have been an Advocate for veterans, when using or attempting use of the V.A. for benefits deserved.
Yes we have had skin in the game, and the latest folly of our G-Daughter is disturbing at best.
Not really comprehending this "investing around Syria." ??
Markets were down yesterday...
Markets are up today...
And we didn't do anything...
LOM...I pretty much explained my feelings in the last comment.
Don't like the attitude of Black or White turbans...Towards us, the Infidels.
I'm in good Company...The Romans didn't either.
We have been used and abused by every Country in the M.E. and N.A.
And we have gained no respect or love from any, including Israel.
It is time to give up our Crusades and cut them loose, as the Romans did..
Or it shall be our downfall also.
WAR- 21st Century style?
- Pick a backward nation sitting on oil fields. Make unsubstantiated claims AND claim the evidence has been destroyed. Buzz word it... like nukes and WMDs. Tell America it will be short. Act in the name of peace- using bombs. Plant numerous targets that give the impression that victory had purpose. Kill and kill often. Promise to rebuild using American contractors. Forego the Debt Ceiling and print new money like it was toilet paper. SOUND FAMILIAR? It was the SAME for Desert Storm and post 9/11.
I can't remember where Diplomacy has worked well in the Middle East or N.Africa Area for thousands of years...
We had a little blip of Peace, that was negotiated by Jimmy Carter, one of his few achievements as President...
But other than that....I really don't recall ANY other.
We as a Country have spent Billions of dollars and lost thousands of Lives....For What ??
Fact is, weak markets find a reason to go down just as strong ones find any reasons to go up. The massive stocks gains this year are the reason the markets are jittery along with the fact that their will be a new Fed Chief along with higher interest rates. Syria is just an convenient excuse for market manipulators to fleece the sheep.
It seems as though Syria is just another component to the waiting game. Markets are waiting around for some big info over the next couple of months. Next week we get the August jobs report. Then we get some indication from retailers about back-to-school spending levels. If anything more significant than a couple of missile strikes against Syria happens, it will take weeks. Markets are still waiting on Bernanke to give more definite direction to the future of QE. And before you know it, we're going to be looking at Q3 GDP results, which will be a huge factor considering we're at 3 quarters in a row now of sub 2% growth. For now, it's a waiting game.
Remember chemicals are not weapons of mass destruction. We have no reason to go into Syria. It was said our old Dead Buddy Sadaam killed a few Khurds with chemicals. Also Bob Beckle(dem) said on the 5 last night,somewhere over there a lady(not Muslem) drank from a Muslem Well and is going to be imprisoned for I think he said 15 years. Where is the outrage from the Moderate Muslems? There is"nt any-when will we learn the ONLY thing that they want from us is our Money-I say give them only Guns let them kill each other if they want.
Evil Chris.....Think you are correct about the Canal, believe that it was Eisenhower ?
And I was reading or researching about IKE just a few days ago.
Copyright © 2014 Microsoft. All rights reserved.
Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Morningstar Inc. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Morningstar Inc. Quotes delayed by up to 15 minutes, except where indicated otherwise. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by Morningstar Inc.
The company complains after the son of Florida State's football coach is televised wearing -- gasp -- Under Armour.
VIDEO ON MSN MONEY
Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.
Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.
Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.