Ignore the stubborn gloom-and-doom cabal
That cohort of naysayers never dies no matter what the market shows us.
It's giving you every reason to sell off. Somehow, even though Black Friday obviously can't have been as strong as Black Fridays of the past because stores opened on Thanksgiving, the press has pronounced the holiday season a bust.
Somehow, despite a wholesale shift in spending to online, we don't bother to account it in holiday spending. Somehow we have decided that the consumer is, once again, tapped out -- and, no matter how many times the consumer hasn't actually been tapped out, the press has ruled she has been.
If you believe these stories, then just go short Target (TGT) and Wal-Mart (WMT). They are the two that stand for this weakness. Dump some J.C. Penney (JCP), too. I think these are sucker trades, as they reflect a ton of gloom, but there's always someone out there who didn't get the memo.
Another reason the market can sell off is that interest rates are still inching higher. The further away Treasuries go from 2.5%, the more we will have the pernicious discussion of Fed tapering/lost control/worthless money, et cetera, that has bird-dogged us for ages. Every time I see Marc Faber of Gloom, Doom and Boom fame, I am reminded that this cohort never dies -- these people who consistently think that this is the market's last breath.
This man has had big shoes to fill, having to take up the space left by both Meredith Whitney and Nouriel Roubini. Sometimes I wonder: If his newsletter weren't so catchily named, would we would have to deal with this man's prattle ever again? In all of the years I have known or read him, in almost ever critical juncture, he's been negative -- the boom a prelude only to gloom and doom -- that I am amazed that he is still in the Rolodex of the bookers out there. It doesn't matter. There's always bear fodder, so we might as well trot out this cynic and let him ramble on about the world's end. It's a gloomy job, and someone has to do it.
The market can sell off because the headlines about health care are as grim as ever, and we are finally seeing exactly what little testing the government did on the website before they took this thing live. Still, Oracle (ORCL) is the only big company that has come up as being part of the problem initially: The New York Times snuck in a little mention of it in the paper's investigation of the story. The lovers and apologists for Oracle will conveniently overlook that alleged screw-up. I kept looking for Caterpillar (CAT) and Cisco (CSCO) in there as two companies that botched things. But, then again, I don't think they were involved, not that a nexus is needed for these guys to blow it.
Lost in all of this gloom, doom and kaboom is, alas, the kaboom, because we keep getting some pretty darned good earnings. This is something that never seems to fit into the calculus of Faber and the others who get ginned up when we need to verify how bogus the whole market rally is.
I parsed through Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) numbers over the weekend and, dare I say, this company is back and it's starting to really turn. The stock is very inexpensive, and the forthcoming year-over-year comparisons will be easy. I can't wait until this company invents the ultimate 2-D printer -- it has the technology in its Israeli division -- so we don't have to hear about Voxeljet (VJET) anymore. You can say it was all made with headcount cuts. I could come back and say that HP CEO Meg Whitman had to cut heads before the company could grow. That's how all successful turnarounds are done, and she's just finishing stage one.
There were no flies on Tiffany (TIF) or Workday (WDAY) last week, either. When the worst quarter you get is from Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), whose shares were already up 70% going into the quarter, you can't really reach a lot of negative conclusions about the market, even as I see people contort themselves into doing so pretty much on an hourly basis.
So let's see what this extended market brings in this new month. To me it will bring price breaks that will be quickly met by buying. That's simply because we only have five more shopping weeks until those who subscribe to the gloom and doom but not the boom start getting their assets stripped away, as surely as a mine is stripped on pretty much a daily basis.
JC, your first error is basing your pollyannaish outlook on PAST earnings during a period of increasing productivity brought upon by slashing workforces in half, ultra-cheap money and only limited controls on either corporate, consumer or government debt. you know better. once the workforce reductions are wrung out, the Fed begins to taper, market forces and bond vigilantes force interest rate increases, and across-the-board deleveraging begins then FUTURE earnings fall and the market will indeed correct - and it will fall hard.
on Black Monday (october 19, 1987), in a similar market environment, the dow dropped 22.61% in a single day and took years to recover. it can happen again, and all of the stop-loss orders, and circuit breakers, and investor trading platforms will be of limited use due to the vastly improved speed of the big-guys with ultra-fast electronic algorithmic trading and systems that act faster than a human can blink, let alone enter a sell trade.
your servile attitude and infallible, narcisstic deception is not only dangerous, but is what led to millions of investors losing over half their portfolios in 2001-2002 and again in 2008-2009. looking only at the technical's (it will go up because it has gone up) and not at the fundamentals is a proven recipe for disaster. but of course it is the mom-and-pop individual buy-and-hold investor who allows you and your buds to make millions and billions on the stock market swings as long as this sheeple base is kept fully invested.
shameful article sir - how much is enough?
A week later, Bear Sterns went belly up. So you'll have to pardon us, Jimbo, if we're a little skeptical when you write an article like this...
" so we might as well trot out this cynic and let him ramble on about the world's end. It's a gloomy job, and someone has to do it."
I thought this was V_L's job.
"consumer hasn't actually been tapped out, the press has ruled she has been. "
She ? ......... LOL. Nice Bobo.
some things bear repeating.
"as to fatty/senor, he is a troll. there are two things you can do to stop this troll from spreading his useless posts and comments around this site:
1. first of all, DON'T FEED THE TROLL. this means do not respond to any of his posts because his warped personality feeds off of negative feedback. (it's an untreated mental illness)
2. second, use the "Report" arrow in the bottom right-hand corner of his post box to flag this troll as either using profanity or harassment. at some point the site monitors should step forward to ban him from this infantile trolling sickness.
again - please don't feed the trolls no matter how amusing it might seem, since they are like gremlins and grow more persistent each time they are given attention. thanks."
Another misconception, that folks that talk about Risks and Reality don't invest, we do. This notion that just because you understand there are risk you don't invest and or speculate is pure foolery. Some folks just don't put the blinders on and hold to infinity.
Jimmy, you have to be the most unprofessional guy I have ever seen talk about stocks.
By Justina Lee Nov 26, 2013 9:47 PM CT
US National Debt will be well over $17Trillion with record amount of Global Debt, Government and Corporate. The Fed's bloated balance sheet will be a hindrance moving forward. Student Loan Debt continually hits records along with Margin Debt. Jimmy just wants more folks in some his Buds can cash out. Jimmy doesn't care if Mom and Pop are left holding the empty Bag.
Copyright © 2014 Microsoft. All rights reserved.
The company is lowering its soda machine projections for the second half of the year, however.
VIDEO ON MSN MONEY
Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.
Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.
Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.