Ignore the stubborn gloom-and-doom cabal

That cohort of naysayers never dies no matter what the market shows us.

By Jim Cramer Dec 2, 2013 1:06PM

Image: Crystal ball (© Brand X Pictures/Jupiterimages)It's giving you every reason to sell off. Somehow, even though Black Friday obviously can'tTheStreet.com logo have been as strong as Black Fridays of the past because stores opened on Thanksgiving, the press has pronounced the holiday season a bust.


Somehow, despite a wholesale shift in spending to online, we don't bother to account it in holiday spending. Somehow we have decided that the consumer is, once again, tapped out -- and, no matter how many times the consumer hasn't actually been tapped out, the press has ruled she has been.


If you believe these stories, then just go short Target (TGT) and Wal-Mart (WMT). They are the two that stand for this weakness. Dump some J.C. Penney (JCP), too. I think these are sucker trades, as they reflect a ton of gloom, but there's always someone out there who didn't get the memo.


Another reason the market can sell off is that interest rates are still inching higher. The further away Treasuries go from 2.5%, the more we will have the pernicious discussion of Fed tapering/lost control/worthless money, et cetera, that has bird-dogged us for ages. Every time I see Marc Faber of Gloom, Doom and Boom fame, I am reminded that this cohort never dies -- these people who consistently think that this is the market's last breath.

 

This man has had big shoes to fill, having to take up the space left by both Meredith Whitney and Nouriel Roubini. Sometimes I wonder: If his newsletter weren't so catchily named, would we would have to deal with this man's prattle ever again? In all of the years I have known or read him, in almost ever critical juncture, he's been negative -- the boom a prelude only to gloom and doom -- that I am amazed that he is still in the Rolodex of the bookers out there. It doesn't matter. There's always bear fodder, so we might as well trot out this cynic and let him ramble on about the world's end. It's a gloomy job, and someone has to do it.


The market can sell off because the headlines about health care are as grim as ever, and we are finally seeing exactly what little testing the government did on the website before they took this thing live. Still, Oracle (ORCL) is the only big company that has come up as being part of the problem initially: The New York Times snuck in a little mention of it in the paper's investigation of the story. The lovers and apologists for Oracle will conveniently overlook that alleged screw-up. I kept looking for Caterpillar (CAT) and Cisco (CSCO) in there as two companies that botched things. But, then again, I don't think they were involved, not that a nexus is needed for these guys to blow it.


Lost in all of this gloom, doom and kaboom is, alas, the kaboom, because we keep getting some pretty darned good earnings. This is something that never seems to fit into the calculus of Faber and the others who get ginned up when we need to verify how bogus the whole market rally is.


I parsed through Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) numbers over the weekend and, dare I say, this company is back and it's starting to really turn. The stock is very inexpensive, and the forthcoming year-over-year comparisons will be easy. I can't wait until this company invents the ultimate 2-D printer -- it has the technology in its Israeli division -- so we don't have to hear about Voxeljet (VJET) anymore. You can say it was all made with headcount cuts. I could come back and say that HP CEO Meg Whitman had to cut heads before the company could grow. That's how all successful turnarounds are done, and she's just finishing stage one.

 

There were no flies on Tiffany (TIF) or Workday (WDAY) last week, either. When the worst quarter you get is from Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), whose shares were already up 70% going into the quarter, you can't really reach a lot of negative conclusions about the market, even as I see people contort themselves into doing so pretty much on an hourly basis.

 

So let's see what this extended market brings in this new month. To me it will bring price breaks that will be quickly met by buying. That's simply because we only have five more shopping weeks until those who subscribe to the gloom and doom but not the boom start getting their assets stripped away, as surely as a mine is stripped on pretty much a daily basis.

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43Comments
Dec 2, 2013 5:04PM
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"No. No. No. Bear Sterns is fine.  Bear Sterns is not in trouble.  Don't move your money from there.  That's just being silly.  Don't be silly." - Jim Cramer, March 11, 2008, CNBC, Mad Money

A week later, Bear Sterns went belly up.  So you'll have to pardon us, Jimbo, if we're a little skeptical when you write an article like this...

Dec 2, 2013 1:45PM
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I always thought folks needed Jobs to earn income to spend but I guess that is old school.  With folks spending online will retail stores still employ folks to walk around empty aisles and rearrange displays that haven't been touched. But alas with all the members of both houses fully invested the market hadn't better crap out.  Oh what a web we have spun.  Everyone at the top giddy with free cash and so happy the masses haven't noticed how they are getting less and less.  Oh yea we are most definitely in the sweet spot. Get as cynical as you can Jim but reality can appear on a dime.  Just a few months ago Obama was at the top of the world and now?   As long as interest rates keep folks with no better alternative we probably will see market strength but to accept where we are is because of strong economic fundamentals is a stretch from my perspective.  Gravity never takes a day off yet some still believe they can fly.
Dec 2, 2013 2:11PM
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I did hear a discussion last week about investment styles.  Seems there is a difference between pessimistic and optimistic when it comes to investing.  The conclusion was over the long run the pessimists earn and retain more wealth.  Just Sayin
Dec 2, 2013 2:26PM
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" so we might as well trot out this cynic and let him ramble on about the world's end. It's a gloomy job, and someone has to do it."

 

I thought this was V_L's job.

Dec 2, 2013 1:45PM
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Ignore at your own risk. Safer to ignore Jim.
Dec 2, 2013 5:10PM
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How about how they manipulated it to stay right above 16000 Rome? Far Out Right!!
Dec 2, 2013 2:18PM
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The market is rome in...  someone might get burned.
Dec 2, 2013 2:14PM
Dec 2, 2013 4:46PM
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I wonder which "cabal" cramer belongs to?
Dec 2, 2013 1:46PM
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"consumer hasn't actually been tapped out, the press has ruled she has been. "

 

She ? ......... LOL. Nice Bobo.

Dec 2, 2013 5:26PM
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Puking pumpkin, you said it!  More posters should expose the dishonesty of market manipulation, as you have,  Then the SEC might do its job. We are entitled to a fair and honest market, not one that turns dramatically for no reason at all.
Dec 2, 2013 2:07PM
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We just had a Amazon drone or a Red-tailed Hawk fly over our house..???  LMAO.
Dec 2, 2013 6:36PM
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I have to keep copies of Cramer's analysis.  It was only a couple of months ago he had the  opposite view of the market.  I do not know how he can analyze so many companies from different industries.
Dec 2, 2013 7:05PM
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Well, not a bit surprise today, we were in negative territory most of the day, low volume and scumbags all over the place on and off the floor...We had an early afternoon sucker's rally, we even turned positive, but as expected, didn't last long...At 1328 hrs manipulators called for an all out cheat job so down we went and never recovered...After the last few weeks you can imagine how these crooks feel so, they did their thing till the close....And tomorrow, we are sure they will try to pick up where they left off....Oh well, we will find out soon enough.
Dec 2, 2013 2:26PM
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Yes, futures were up slightly this morning but, at 0930 hrs they become history....Another day of low volume and heavy manipulation....We turned green momentarily about 25 minutes ago but they are bringing us down again; its called a sucker's rally....We have been up several weeks in a row and as you may imagine, cheating crooks are fit to be tied....No doubt they will utilize every and all means possible to bring these markets down this afternoon...Oh well, we will see what happens, we don't give up too easy.....These markets have room to go higher, like we always say, thanks God we are not correlated to the economy, we would be in serious trouble if that were the case....A jobless recovery...Sad.....More later.
Dec 2, 2013 2:04PM
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Jimmy, talking about the actual State of Affairs isn't Doom and Gloom. Just because Stock Markets can and will ignore Reality doesn't mean you should PUMP folks into Risky Assets as if they aren't.

Another misconception, that folks that talk about Risks and Reality don't invest, we do. This notion that just because you understand there are risk you don't invest and or speculate is pure foolery. Some folks just don't put the blinders on and hold to infinity.

Jimmy, you have to be the most unprofessional guy I have ever seen talk about stocks.

Dec 2, 2013 2:18PM
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Looks as if the gloom-doom promoters are succeeding ...
Dec 2, 2013 2:17PM
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"Record Spread Blowout Sparks Mini-Crisis Warning: China Credit"
By Justina Lee Nov 26, 2013 9:47 PM CT

US National Debt will be well over $17Trillion with record amount of Global Debt, Government and Corporate. The Fed's bloated balance sheet will be a hindrance moving forward. Student Loan Debt continually hits records along with Margin Debt. Jimmy just wants more folks in some his Buds can cash out. Jimmy doesn't care if Mom and Pop are left holding the empty Bag.

Dec 2, 2013 4:52PM
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So, Mr Cramer was right ... thank you for reporting the truth
Dec 2, 2013 2:00PM
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And Jimmy Cracked Corn, showed up on Cyber Day...
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