Is Plug Power getting charged to rally?

The stock was once at double-digit levels, but has fallen on disappointment over a recent announcement.

By Benzinga Mar 31, 2014 3:10PM
© Plug Power
ForkliftBy Joel Elconin

Plug Power (PLUG) shares have settled down over the last three trading sessions.

Last week, the stock spiked to $8.48 when the company's CEO made comments regarding a pending deal for the company. However, PLUG was not able to sustain that level when traders realized that the new order is for fuel cells for forklifts.

Since this product was already the primary revenue generator for the company, this news was really nothing new. After Citron Research's scathing report on the company brought the stock down from $11.72 to $5.33, as investors were anticipating either a new product or new partnership after reading the initial headlines.

Interestingly, the $8.48 level holds major significance from technical perspective for a few 

different reasons.

First of all, $8.48 is the exact level Plug Power rebounded to on March 13 following the steep decline to $5.33 instigated by the Citron Research report. Also, it represents a 50 percent rebound from its recent March 11 high ($11.72) to its March 21 panic low ($5.33).

Therefore, technical traders, who could not care less about the fundamentals of the company, will be keying on this level to either cover shorts or to re-enter the issue when it has upward momentum.

For now, the shorts are still in control as the issue has retreated to $7 and has 

posted nearly identical closes over the last two sessions ($6.89 and $6.90). Also, PLUG was trading a lot volume in Monday's session at the $7 level. After not being able to maintain that crucial level off the open, Plug Power declined to the double-close level, reaching $6.92 before rebounding.

Along with posting similar closes, Plug Power has provided traders with a key resistance level as well. After posting highs on Thursday ($7.19) and Friday ($7.15), the stock has again attracted sellers near this level as it has peaked at $7.25 so far in Monday's session.

The bad news for the bears is that the stock has made a higher low in five of the last six trading sessions since bottoming out at $5.33. The only day with a lower low was March 28, when PLUG traded to $6.21 after its March 27 low of $6.26. While it has interrupted the string of higher lows, bulls can argue that Plug Power has a double bottom in place.

Also, it may indicate the bears are getting nervous since they must now compete with bulls that missed out on the stock's first run and are determined to build a long position. The technical pattern of Plug Power surely reveals this kind of trading activity with support slowly moving up.

So while the bulls and bears battle it out at the $7 level, how should the retail investor approach the issue? Answer: With caution. Since the average retail investor does not play issues from the short side, let's analyze the issue from the long side.

If still bullish on the fundamentals of the company or you're being lured in by its technical set-up, a trade would be hopeful the low of the move is in. Entering at the $7 level and exiting if it breaches the recent low limits the loss to roughly two points.

For the trade to be profitable, the company will need to announce a deal outside of the fuel-cell forklift arena to attract the fundamental investors. Or, and more likely, a breakout above its major resistance at $8.48 may be the impetus to spark a covering rally that may take Plug Power back to being a double-digit stock.

More from Benzinga

Mar 31, 2014 3:15PM
Wow this "story" is extremely lacking in the fine detail ...the main one being it is up something like 800% since the start of the year ...the figures the pitchman ....oops I mean author uses are all from the last 2 -3 weeks ....

MSN really allow pump and dumpers access to your boards !!!
Apr 1, 2014 9:02AM
Garbage,already rallied and crashed,aka pumped and dumped.
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