Debt mess is burying some hot numbers
Congress is making it hard for investors to play the really good corporate results of late.
It's too bad this is happening in Congress. On Tuesday night we got some terrific auto sales out of Europe, numbers that were so good you easily could have seen earnings estimates getting raised for both Ford (F) and General Motors (GM).
We also had some figures out of CSX (CSX) showing the coal numbers couldn't bring down the rest of the growth because of intermodal transport.
Intel (INTC) sees consumer electronic demand bottoming out. While I don't want to own Intel, because its growth is too slow, I could make a case for owning a lot of consumer-related hardware names -- as well as the usual suspects, like Micron (MU), Best Buy (BBY) and even, yes, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ).
But what does it all mean? What are you going to do? Are you going to buy some Seagate (STX) off the Intel call and then discover that Sen. Ted Cruz has thrown a monkey wrench into the Senate plans -- or, if you are pro-default, that the Tea Party has stood up to the leadership and has voted down anything the Senate has sent over?
What good does it do to buy more Ford off of Europe numbers if you don't know whether Ford Motor Credit will be able to offer attractive deals in a default? Moreover, if 80 million checks aren't sent out by the government, will anyone care about the numbers being reported? People would be more likely to stop spending than they'd be to accelerate.
That's the key to the moment. People keep wanting to quantify what a default or a near-default or a technical default would mean. Here's what it would mean: Less business would be done, because the credit markets would be imperfect, in the same way that 30-day Treasury bills soared in yield Tuesday, particularly after Citigroup (C) said it had gotten out of near-term paper.
There will be selling pressure. Rates did go higher for that end, and on a default they will go higher for much of the curve.
If you think that's good for stocks, then go buy some CSX and some Best Buy.
I think it's bad.
Random musings: We saw unbelievably good numbers from Regeneron (REGN) last night on its cholesterol-lowering agent. That's good for Regeneron but bad for Merck (MRK), as it is three times more effective than Merck's option.
At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, was long F.
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Actually, we should make ALL congress people buy their own health care plans like little people need to pay for.
The wife won $321.00 at the casino last Sunday.
I bought another box of Arm & Hammer laundry detergent.
The old box was 6.61 pounds, 3.00 kilograms.
The new box is 6.16 pounds, 2.80 kilograms.
This Sunday, I'm going to the casino and the wife can go to the supermarket.
Question: If you don't work and get on ObamaCare with subsidy help and you need to go to the doctor but don't have the money for the co-pay....... What happens?
The Repubs on TV sure are crying and bellyaching.I told everybody 3 weeks ago Obama
would outfox the Repubs.Even Ann Coulter said the GOP is in shambles.The Repubs
will lose a lot of seats in the Congress next year.The dog fight between the mainstream
Repubs and the TEA PARTY showed what clowns the Repubs have become.
What is going on right now, is clearly illustrative of how NOT to go about thwarting the will of the majority (at least the majority who could use good, semi-socialized HC conduits). The economy of the major player in the global markets must not be held hostage to the wishes of a minority within the Right wing. This is absolutely wrong. What CONgress is doing to the markets, and to the small business as well as the laid off workers (and their overdue bills) is flat out unjust. NOT while they decline to participate in the 'suffering rate' which they willingly inflict upon others without power.
I believe that when I call upon D.C. to stop playing games with the budget, the debt ceiling and authentic debt reform, I speak for the majority. Our central problems - whether the European revolutions of the 1700s or the hostage-holding drama of today- are clearly indicated by the inflection point within society when Ideology Trumps the Individual. If our CONgress is to get a grip on the proper remedies for our current financial malaise, we must drive that discussion forward with the next election process. We must resume our control over our own destiny and in so doing, foster the next generation of politicians who will finally evolve beyond brinksmanship to a new vision of shared conflict resolution involving the "good of the people', more so than the 'lining of the personal pockets'.
Cramer does have one thing right today- Go beyond the numbskulls and look to the numbers.
Our economy is fundamentally sound and still moving forward. The only thing standing in the way of the natural growth and better velocity we require is Washington, D.C. So insofar as incumbency may be the problem, its not the sole issue. Smart choices into the future which would not only aid the incumbent but the freshmen reps as well are the sine qua non of our democracy and it is WE who must resolve to change our ways...or lose our country with a horrible finality.
As an example: suppose a family has a child going to college but can't pay the tuition. The husband wants to get a HEL to fund it but the wife doesn't want to incur new debt. They have their own debate and eventually the husband persuades the wife to agree that they raise their own "debt ceiling" and apply for the loan. Then they go to the bank to apply for a HEL and are turned down for the loan.
It doesn't really matter if the Government agrees to let itself borrow more money - we still are dependent on there being enough willing lenders out there to lend us the money that we allow ourselves to borrow. Am I missing something or is Someone Else's Money truly an unlimited resource?
we'll see today come and go. the next week or so nothing will happen.
the "recession" will be a formality - shown in numbers but not felt by the regular person.
time to buy stocks on sale? then why are they up so high already today?
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Fed keeps important 'considerable time' language in reference to short-term interest rates, but dissents and dots leave doubts.
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