The biggest gold prediction of the year

After its largest drop in 45 years, investors are wondering if it's time to jump off the yellow metal bandwagon. The answer may surprise you.

By StreetAuthority Jul 10, 2013 7:03PM
Image: Gold Bars (© Stockbyte/SuperStock)By David Goodboy

Whenever I'm faced with a major change in my opinion regarding the market's long-term direction, I think of the English punk band the Clash.

In particular, the 1980s hit "Should I Stay or Should I Go" comes to mind. With apologies to the song's writers:

"Should I buy or should I sell? If I buy, there will be trouble / If I sell, it will be double."
Thinking of these altered lyrics might be a nod to being obsessed with music during my adolescence. It might also be a signal that it's time to make a change. I like to think of them as the latter.

Over the past week, I thought of those lyrics when looking at the price of gold. In my April 29 article on the precious metal, I had forecast that gold would drop below $1,200 an ounce before bouncing higher. This is exactly what has occurred with gold futures dropping to $1,179 prior to bouncing into the $1,250 range seven sessions later.

This has led me to turn bullish on the yellow metal. My bold call is that gold will climb back above $1,400 an ounce prior to it dropping below $1,150. Here's why:

The options market
Trading volume in call options on SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) have just soared to its highest level in over eight weeks.

Call options are bets that the underlying security or commodity will increase in value. A sharp volume increase in call options can signal that professional traders are expecting additional upside in the commodity. Remember, this is despite the rising short interest in the precious metal.
Short interest
Whenever short interest reaches an extreme level, it can be a signal that the commodity or security is oversold and ready for a bounce higher. Presently, short interest in the SPDR Gold Trust ETF is about two standard deviations higher than average.

In addition, COMEX net long positions for large speculators recently plunged to multi-year lows, down 79% from the first of the year and 90% since the summer of 2011. Such a sharp change in positions can often foretell that the opposite move is about to occur. Speculative shorts in the metal have reached such a level that it has become an overly crowded trade.
Lower prices increase demand

Demand around the world is spiking in response to the lower prices. Consumers in Vietnam are flooding stores to purchase gold bullion. Turkey imported 44 metric tons of gold in June, increasing demand in the world's fourth-largest consumer of the precious metal . Not to mention that in the first five months of this year, China's gold imports have already doubled last year's levels.
The technical picture

Taking a look at the past 90 days, gold prices have experienced the 16th worst drop since 1968. It has rebounded each of the subsequent 90-day periods, with an average increase of over 20%.

If we take this observation as being predictive, it may signal a bounce into the $1,414 range. In addition, there is a multi-day consolidation zone in the $1,400 area. It is my thinking that this type of consolidation zone can act as a magnet, pulling the price back to that level. The combination of the increase after a 90-day decline with the consolidation zone being in the same relative area paints a compelling technical picture of this bounce continuing higher.

Risks to consider:
Anything can happen in the commodity market. My analysis makes solid sense now, but in light of a variety of factors -- the uncertain worldwide economic environment, the Federal Reserve's lack of clarity on its timing for ending monetary easing measures, interest rates changing and currency fluctuations among others -- it's very difficult to accurately forecast gold prices. Be sure to always use stops and position size properly whenever entering a speculative long position.

Action to take:
Entering gold now with stops at $1,170 makes both fundamental and technical sense. I expect to see gold back above $1,400 prior to another substantial down wave.

David Goodboy does not personally hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
StreetAuthority LLC does not hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
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Jul 11, 2013 12:27PM
Gold will be where the market controllers want it to be . The idea that market forces have anything but a small influence on gold is non sense .  We are way past any place resembling free markets and free trade. Huge complex programs operated by programs milked by specialized technicians now control who and when money is made , trying to read that and maybe you can skim some profit on their actions.
Jul 10, 2013 10:34PM

Been doing excellent the last few hours or day so...

Some of us are just waiting for the return to normal levels for Yellow...

We don't need to pick anymore up...

"Welcome to my parlor said the spyder...."

Aug 17, 2013 11:09AM

Come on. Does anyone out there really see the economy getting better? 30 hour work weeks, 70% of new jobs data part time work, 400 trillion $ derivatives bubble.

Get a little gold now that it's down and hedge your bets. Buy physical gold in the gram or oz. form. It's cool! You can show your kids and friends something that actually has value. Can you say the same about the dollar?

Don't want to sound like "Chicken Little" but it doesn't hurt to have some just incase! It may just be enough to get you and your family to safety. I know, "Chicken Little."

Jul 11, 2013 11:43AM

Where are the gold bugs?I love hearing from those negative types that keep saying "Gold

is going to $10,000 an ounce"Sure, have another drink.In the meantime I`m making money

by the truckload with great stocks.

Jul 11, 2013 11:42AM
Any pup that has to ask his girl the lyrics of this song, is nothing but a puppy dog. It's funny now that gold has "broke down" how many analysts are in the "I told you" camp. About as many as mentioned when gold was at that 1600 support, we were in the "7th inning stretch", with gold poised to surge over 2K per ounce!

Jul 10, 2013 9:28PM
IF the Fed keeps printing (QE3) fiat currency to raise the valuation of assets (commodities, equities and real estate) then precious metals will also bounce back to reasonable support levels. If it costs $1000 per ounce to produce new gold then it's actually more desirable than shares of the TBTF banks like BAC, C, GS, JPM and MS which can not pay any dividends until they meet new asset capital ratios. The Asians have been around the block a few more times then the naive US investors. You might want to add alittle ABX, GLD, GDX and NUGT to your portfolio just in case.
Aug 27, 2013 2:49AM
is there any chance to decrease the gold rate from the today rate. 
Jul 11, 2013 2:26PM
You should have bought yesterday...
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