The return of old-style investing
The aerospace move and the short covering are reminiscent of bygone days.
When oil goes up, the sector does well because the airlines will need more fuel-efficient planes. When oil goes down, people think the airlines will do better and therefore place more plane orders. In the absence of a trend in rates -- and we don't know the trend -- it has become the de facto trade, and aerospace is even better than biotech and high-growth retail like Starbucks (SBUX).
One of the amazing things about this market is the intense and relentless run-up of the same stocks on the same news. There is no per se news about aerospace. We just keep getting more orders, and it will keep happening because of the fuel-efficiency issue. But when is it built in? When does Boeing (BA) discount it? Right now, the answer would seem to be never.
What I think is happening is we are seeing a return to some old-style investing. Boeing used to trade in seven-year cycles. A new '87 entry would give Boeing seven long years of profits with terrific gross margins, ones that get better every year. That's precisely what it seems to be happening right now, doesn't it?
That means the discounting mechanism has gone awry.
Plus, the current crop of analysts just aren't used to a market this bullish. They, collectively, don't want to hype Boeing, because they fear top-ticking it. In fact, the only stock that analysts don't seem to be afraid to top-tick is Google (GOOG). Before that it was Qualcomm (QCOM), and before that it was Apple (AAPL), although I think Google is better than those two.
It's just that the bullishness is so pronounced that they can't get their arms around it.
Plus there are tons of stories out there that people are short, and they seem to be short/cover/short/covering every time.
Take Amazon.com (AMZN). Periodically someone says something good about the stock, but we're much more likely to hear the stock is overvalued. How many people are short that?
Then there is this pattern, too. You will have a couple of days when winners like PVH (PVH) and Netflix (NFLX) are weak. That brings in the short sellers. Then something positive happens and the shorts spend the next day or two scrambling. Again, constant pattern.
That, too, is reminiscent of the 1980s and '90s, when the bears simply couldn't believe the moves and so shorted them out of disbelief.
Disbelief is a terrible reason to short something. And that's exactly what's generating a lot of these moves.
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust and is long AAPL.
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Maybe some of that "old tyme" investing never left...
Not everyone has a HFT Platform running on their Home PCs...
Only guys/gals like Regal Man(?) and Mr.Fat Cat (?) can afford those luxuries.
"Yes they are. JPM reported a 31% jump in profit."
Think this one through, America. This bank has a direct conduit to borrowed funds and a pretty stupid blanket credit buy-back program. They are an immediate recipient of Ben's $85 billion monthly QE. Yet... they can't lend right, they screw up in billions, invented- then were victims of their own derivatives and debt contracts! Through the 20th Century, it had the US Government bail it out FIVE times and accepted TARP monies in the 21st Century. JP Morgan is directly responsible for the Federal Reserve Act, which passed with only 4 (GOP) members of Congress in session, after hours. The 31% is based on a massive loss in difference... so... in spite of every odd in it's favor, JPMorgan Chase did really poorly and begs the obvious question... if you truly are doing well JPM... then you should be bribing Congress to end QE, right? Your aren't a bank, JPM, you're a blank check for corruption and the sooner we get to eat your executives and directors and shareholders, the sooner others will get it about financial tyranny in America.
If you really want to radiate wealth buy yourself a Buick Regal.
At least its not a chick car Beav.
I have trouble reading, re-reading contributions, that continually repeat or are repititious of the same agenda on a weekly or some bi-weekly basis...
We have a few posters, that suscribe to the that mantra...
And going into Political forays or rants, seldom holds my attention for long in any conversation anywhere....
I would rather sit and drink my whiskey quietly, and chat about the weather, crop yields or the price of hog bellies...Maybe even argue about Israel or the Middle East..
The name calling or inuendos in jest are tolerable, but then again some can just be clicked or rolled on by...
Life is too short, to punish yourself and others with droning on about what is,was or could be..
As you get older that realization comes into play, and sometimes it's not worth the trouble to listen or complain.....But just start whistling or singing under your breath or in your mind.
Que Sera, Sera.
Fatty Cakes, did you call me a name, did you call me a name....Think it was Racist, Buckwheat really Buckwheat?....What ever gave you the opinion I was Black..??
I don't call you bery leetle yallow man, that's the another guy.
And I didn't vote for Obama the first time he ran...
Then you wish me and other's to die...
That not bery nice, leetle yallow man.
Troubled Times...Kinda surprised if you are an investor leaning towards buy and hold along with searching out good dividends....; That you don't have some good selected Telcoms in your Portfolio.
VZ and T come to mind..I'm sure there are others, maybe even better...We hold FTR, but the depreciation has taken some toll.
Other staid and solid payers are in the Tobacco Sector...
But it also looks as if you prescribe some to Buffet....Think KO is his number one holding.
But I always relate he and Munger did this over about 50 plus some years and did it fairly well..
The problem with us or people like us, is we had to work for a living and support other endevours,
And had other obligations...Whereas they had been doing their Berkshire thing over a lifetime.
Good luck and good investing, you should do fine.
I don't know where any of you, are getting this opinion about "old style investing" is dead; Including Cramer...
Warren Buffet/Charlie Munger still do, Re-Toggy still does, many Commentors on here along with several other big players and Millions in 401Ks and the like...
Some of you are just full of shidt, or are not investors at all..
Granted, do you have to make adjustments, re-allocations and re-investments to get further ahead?
The short answer,would be yes...Most do... We alone do about 100-150 trades per year.
Small potatoes in the grander scheme of the investment Game..
401K'ers do have less choices so they are kind of locked in for the most part..
Mutual Fund managers do their part and have 7-15% churn in some cases, maybe more? I don't know the stats at this time.
Are there HFT traders, daytraders, scumbags and manipulators in the Markets, again the short would be yes...But Worldwide the Markets are in the Multiple Trillions...
And those Trillions are not moving everyday, to find new homes...
So get off this bullshidt, you included Cramer !!
And let's look at the "Bigger Picture" 5-10-20 even 25 years out...Yes, this is my Rant for the day.
Wasn't the answer to that question, it pertained to your statement about reading V_L and maybe other's incessant ramblings...
You are just to quick for me and I was doing some duties out in the kitchen....
While formulating a "statement" not a "rant"....I Do some of my best work in the kitchen or bedroom,har,har.
I call it like I see it, on a Forum or Article that's suppose to be about Investing, and not a Political sounding board...
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