These days, any concerns are buying opportunities
None of these supposedly dire recent worries have amounted to anything in this market, and those who took advantage of them and invested made a nice profit.
Maybe we just fret too much. Think of what's happened just in the last two months. We fretted about a dramatic increase in interest rates. What happened? We got one -- a huge percentage gain. What does the market do? How about, the S&P 500 ($INX) has its longest winning streak in nine years? How about, the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) goes up for 14 straight days, its best streak since 1990. We were supposed to be frightened out of our shorts with a run to 2.7% to the 10-year U.S. Treasury, up 100 basis points in a straight line.
As bonds overshot their mark -- meaning that there was no real economic reason for rates to move up that dramatically -- and then came in, it became a buying opportunity. That's right. Something this negative, this horrible and this competitive with stocks became an honest-to-goodness buying opportunity. It had to have been the bears' worst nightmare. This was an event that was startling, profound and obviously negative for stocks -- and it turned out to have been a terrific chance to get in and catch the next leg of this one-sided bull fight.Or how about gasoline? The average price at the pump is flirting with $4 per gallon. This has to have an impact, right? It's a tax -- a direct tax that takes disposable income and flushes it down the toilet of Exxon Mobil (XOM). How in heck can that not hurt?
So what do we do? Why not short all of retail? Why not short Six Flags (SIX) and Cedar Fair (FUN) and Disney (DIS), the latter especially since "Lone Ranger" was such a bomb? OK, so you made a couple of bucks, but it wasn't really worth the risk in retrospect. Yet I am sure more people are now trying it again, betting that the stocks don't reflect the higher prices of gasoline that they might be paying this weekend.
Of course, cars use less gasoline than they used to -- but, more important, nobody has belly-ached about the impact of higher gasoline, other than Darden (DRI), which is the parent of the Red Lobster and Olive Garden restaurant chains. Without the grousing, you can't get the big down days you thought you should have.
Or how about the banks? We were supposed to be taking profits hand over fist in that group. I know it. My Action Alerts PLUS charitable trust has a huge position in Wells Fargo (WFC), and boy were we ever tempted to sell it when not one but two analysts downgraded the darned thing right before the quarter.
It turned out they were wrong. The quarter had upside in pretty much every metric it was supposed to have been showing downside, from net interest margin to expenses -- both of which had been going the wrong way. Even as the company admitted that higher rates could impact mortgages, a huge part of its business, the market lapped it up anyway. A good short was spoiled.
Or how about all of the fretting over the personal-computer-parts stocks? All I heard was that the disk-drive stocks were the most vulnerable stocks in the universe, and that the very smart short sellers were all over them. These stocks only seemed cheap, according to short gospel, because the earnings are about to drop off a cliff.
Well, on Monday Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) hit 52-week highs. That's not supposed to happen. They were supposed to be well off their highs, and while they could go down when they report, they turned out to be horrendous shorts.
You want some serious fret gone spoiled? Remember the Egyptian riots? They were supposed to have a tremendously negative impact on the market. Instead, a much more market-friendly regime came in and Egypt has calmed down considerably. How about the protests in Brazil? You know what they did? They marked the bottom in the Brazilian stocks, which seems to have continued rising since then.
Or how about three months ago, when Starbucks (SBUX) and 3M (MMM) announced their earnings? I remember it well, because I was at Villanova University when they reported. 3M cut guidance pretty severely, and the stock dropped a quick 5 points, from $108 to $103. What was that? Why, it was a buying opportunity. After this, the stock proceeded rallied, astonishingly, 10 points. That's a buying opportunity.
I still can't figure out what people initially didn't like about Starbucks, but I remember thinking that my charitable trust was getting a chance to buy this stock below $60 -- down a couple of bucks -- on a quarter that, to me, seemed just fine. Well, it was better than fine. Starbucks put out terrific numbers from China and the U.S. and the stock never looked back, embarking on a 10-point rally in pretty much a straight line. Now, that's what I call a buying opportunity.
Perhaps the best trade of all came from the highest-growth stocks when the interest-rate rally occurred. Those are the ones that you are never supposed to buy in an era when rates are skyrocketing -- and, after that move, I don't know how you can say they weren't doing just that.
You are supposed to go after the most highly valued stocks, since the rate rise signals inflation and a concomitant erosion of what you will pay for future earnings.
Yet how did the highest-growth stocks in the biotech world do? Celgene (CELG) and Gilead (GILD) have been downright unstoppable, taking out their old highs. Look, I get that when it comes to Celgene, as the company had just announced that it might soon be able to reapply for a favorable-use rule in Europe for its bedrock drug Revlimid. But Gilead? Nothing happened at all, and it's been the strongest one in the pack. Makes me want to go buy Regeneron (REGN) and Biogen (BIIB).
But you know which two have really taken off? How about the two stocks that are regarded as the most expensive large-cap stocks in the universe? I'm talking about Amazon (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX). When I was at my old hedge fund, I used to go after those kinds of stocks when I started, betting that the multiple would shrink so fast off the higher rates that I could coin money. But once rates would stabilize, you'd be history -- and the shorts who did these trades this time are, indeed, history.
Not everything has bounced back. The stocks most definitely in the path of the interest-rate hurricane, the housing stocks, can't get any traction. Nevertheless, they were priced expensively going into the storm, and they have to give back some of their gains, because we know that higher rates do cool housing.
Plus, I think a big percentage of homes is owned by hedge and private-equity funds. I am still shaking from the postponing of the Colony American Homes deal. This is a company that spent $1 billion to buy homes in order to play the housing revival, and that deal was supposed to be the exit strategy for this colossal housing bet. It was to be part of a $2 billion investment that Colony Capital has raised to buy rental homes. Private equity has purchased an estimated $10 billion in rental homes, and the hoped-for idea was bundling these homes into securities such as Colony American Homes -- which could then go public and convert to real estate investment trust status.
What happens if those homes flood the market? What happens if the 4.4% mortgage does crimp the homebuilder sales? It makes sense that those went down.
But the rest of the market? Other than a smattering of stocks, like Blackberry (BBRY) and United Parcel Service (UPS), there's just been no follow-through on the downside. They've all been just one big buying opportunity. Now, before you say, "Wait a second, you don't know yet," I can easily say, "and you can sell everything you bought, and lock in those profits." That's the truth, and those delicious gains can't be taken away if you do so.
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust and is long WFC.
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The last paragraph of the article holds the secret to the whole thing. Some have bragged about their profits over the last few years. Are those profits real or are they just on paper? Have you sold anything, to lock in those gains? What surprises me is that more people aren't locking in gains. With the run-up we've had in such a short time, you'd think those that took a beating in 2008-2009 would be more than happy to re-allocate and move a fair portion out of equities and into something else for awhile. It's clear based on the volume and the moving averages that they aren't. This could be because the market participants have changed, with large investment banks and HFT on the rise and individual "mom and pop" stock trading on the decline. Just use the tools at your disposal to protect yourself from a big downswing. There's nothing sadder than a guy who wins the lottery and ends up broke a short while later. Don't be that guy.
Barry, the reason gas was so cheap at the end of Bush`s awful term was because we
were almost in a depression.We were losing 800,000 jobs a month.You couldn`t give
away cars,gas or houses.
Now, when I look at his (Big Spender) posts the construction of the sentences , the poor grammar, poor spelling , the convoluted logic, it all seems very familiar.
Exactly like a certain poster,our very own "Regal" Man
What would posses a cretin to use multiple ID'S ?
I bought and had installed 4 Tires today...."American made" by Cooper.
Then got another 4 for Miss Lilly's car...All American made..
I felt good about that, the guys/gals at Cooper probably felt good too.
Made the guys happy at the Local Garage....Everyone, BE HAPPY.
About $65-75 more for my 4x4 Mid grade 65K tires.
Same with wifey's car $40 more for same grade All seasons..65k'ers.
Made a little better deal, when I bought all 8 and installed about another $50 bucks saved..
All you gotta do, is ask...All American Made in the good ol' USA.....Coopers.
BTW....Fatty my cars use real tires.
RING ANY BELLS ?
Just the mere threat of drilling, brought pricing down. What does Papa Doc , do ?
Why he announces he hates oil, all energy and WANTS gas to go up to $5.00 a gallon !
STOPPED ALL DRILLING ON PUBLIC LAND
Now, he takes credit for the success of the drilling on PRIVATE land in which he had zero say.
He created this situation by emboldening the heathens in Middle East and by stopping drilling and the pipeline.
He has no sense , no skill , no business acumen but what can you expect from a socialist , re distributor of wealth , a racist, community organizer ?
Last week, we got the agonizing news that a defenseless white man who had been beaten severely by a gang of six Black teenagers succumbed to his injuries and died. He was a living breathing person just as you and I. He was . He was walking on a public street not bothering anyone. His cowardly attackers charged at him from behind, and all SIX of them beat him. After the cowardly attack, Mr. Mahaney was so traumatized that he was afraid to go out of his home. He lived for another year but collapsed, first psychologically than physically, under the weight of living with his injuries and caring for his elderly mother.
The police in Cincinnati have called this a “boredom beating” perpetrated by a gang of black teenage boys seeking entertainment. Decent people ask if this was an isolated incident and why these boys would do such a thing out of boredom.
Hand-wrung apologies from “sagacious” social scientists aside, the answer is quite simply because they “felt like it.”
”Boredom beatings” are the natural extension of giving these people EVERYTHING. They are born in public hospitals; their teenage mothers and Baby Daddies pay nothing. They are taken home to public , live rent free, go to government schools where they pay nothing, and are taught to hate America (especially White America and that when one of them is killed by a would-be victim, it’s the victim’s fault.) They see white people not as their neighbors and fellow Americans, but as their oppressors.
They are fed free of charge three times day at government , given clothing, given free transportation to and from school, and promoted from grade to grade by their height and not their academic achievement.
They are fed at home with free Welfare and SNAP cards. When they get arrested, they get free lawyers. When they get pregnant or father a child, they often give the child to their 40 year old grandmother and roam away to impregnate or become pregnant again.
After all of this free stuff is delivered to their feet, they come to believe they are also entitled entertainment. When they realize their government cradle-to-grave package doesn’t include entertainment, beating defenseless white people to death becomes the recreational activity of choice for some – not all – but some of these people. To keep this cycle in motion, they sell their vote to their Democrat enablers every two years. Any questions?
Jimmy is getting just a bit cocky about the Stock Markets and that usually means another correction is near.
CGT and others may peg it a little wrong sometimes; Yes we do take profits, and we do take cash to the table....Usually for re-allocations, maybe withdrawl reasons or just in the case of safety.
Unfortunately many invested in 401s don't always have the same advantages, or not many choices..
Probably best if the make an apportion to cash or guaranteed interest positions..
I find it very healthy to re-adjust occasionally, and look for better opportunities..
With that in mind and dividends, you can do well in taking advantage of compounding and increasing positions even though appreciating or growth is stagnating..
Panicking in 2008-09 running to cash (when it was too late) was not always the best choice..
Staying in cash or safety was even a worst choice.
That was very evident with some investors and Fund Managers...They faired poorly.
And then to return slowly even prolonged the agony of recovery..
On the flipside using Berkshire for an example as re-allocating and staying the course, it paid off handsomely ....We followed that mantra( although scared)...Yes, it worked well..
"Timing the Markets" is a fool's game and most experts will admit that along with long term investors with track records....They point it out very well..
Today we were selling one oil investment and collecting other dividends to purchase a "better" oil investment down the road on a mini correction or maybe another choice/s.
I heard some financial expert last night, say that the market goes up now more on bad news as much as good news. They actually prefer bad news because they KNOW Uncle Ben will keep pumping money into it.
This is what drives the market now ?
Bad news ?
Schmucks like "Regal" man keep dumping money into this scam and one day soon, the bottom falls out. (Well, that would be if our "Regal" man was a real entity, an investor , instead of a made up persona making zillions in the market)
Guys like the dolts on this board, never time anything right.
They will be caught holding the bag and soon. If a market doesn't rise or fall on fundamentals what then, moves it ?
QE 99 ?
Barry, I told you the truth.You LOG CABIN REPUBLICANS just don`t want to hear the
truth.When was the last time you ever hear a Republican be man enough to admit
they were wrong?
Look do the math 10,000,000 baby boomers are retiring each month taking on average $40,000 out of the stock and bond market. We are replacing them with only 1,000,000 new jobs paying for the most part minimum wage which contributes nothing to the stock market or bind markets as these guys are not even able to pay for food for themselves.
Just how is a 100 basis point move in the US treasury a buying op???
The market is coming back merely because Bernanke is throwing $45 billion a month into it. And the Chinese are complaining about it and have started their targeted house buying in America with fake shadow banking funny money in order to destroy the US economy. Pretty much they are causing a housing bubble in the US with fake money and it is not going to end well for us.
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