This may bump China off the radar
A 7.5% GDP growth rate at the world's second-largest economy may be the turning point.
What number would get China off the radar screen? At some point we should be saying, "OK, enough already. The commodity stocks are so low, and the producers are cutting back, so -- you know what? We can handle this level." At what number would we say that?
I think China may have hit it Sunday night. We got a number, the 7.5% gross domestic product growth number, and it was actually in line. That's right. It didn't disappoint. It didn't take the market down. It didn't cause people to talk wildly about the collapse of China.It was just there.
It didn't upset. It didn't thrill. Irony of ironies, it came when, at last, the lead story of The Wall Street Journal was, "China Slump Ripples Globally."
Why does this confluence of data and irony matter? Because I think it might be presenting an inflection point.
Go back to Europe. The market used to slump on European news pretty much every day of the week, didn't it? Remember when there were whole periods when every number had been worse than the previous one, and the market freaked out each time? Remember when we would worry about every little piece of data?
Then, one day, we got some data and said, "That's not so hot -- but not that much worse than expected." Then we got some "That's almost roughly in line," and then we got some, "Eh, I guess, not so bad." Then we got, "Yeah, it figures."
That progression brought stabilization to Europe and to the rest of the world. Go over that litany. At no point did data ever come in "better than expected." We've still only seen a smattering of data that is better than expected out of Europe, but look how high it has gone. It is now in "upside surprise" mode, not downside surprise.
That's quite a journey.
These days I am not hearing the big gasps out of the China data. On Monday, I actually saw data that initially drove up the Australian dollar, which is sensitive to China. I have watched the Baltic Freight Index go higher for many weeks now, and that was a fabulous leading indicator on the way down. Obviously, the world price of oil is being pulled up by financial buying as a hedge against inflation, but I believe it's also being buoyed by Chinese demand. Of course, that is pretty strong, with an economy growing at 7.5%, as we learned last night
To put it in a nutshell, for about a year now we have been hearing, "Sure, it's bad -- but, when compared with the rest of the world, well, they would kill for that growth." When we hear that, we quickly dismiss it because we know that China's supposed to grow in the double digits.
What happens if China doesn't go back to double digits? What happens if we just get, "That's not so hot, but not worse than expected," followed by, "That's roughly in line," and then, "Eh?"
We get Europe -- in China.
I'll take it!
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust.
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For those who may be interested, there is a fantastic article by M. Catharine Evans at American Thinker titled "Trayvon's Tragedy: Exploited in Death". A most excellent read.
"The main difference between us and Europe is that there is still a remote possibility that we might possibly have a slim chance to grow our way out of at least half of our problems."
Not as long as the Federal Reserve isn't seized and shut. The only thing not happening that is there is- in Europe they are seizing assets directly from accounts and capping actual cash transactions.
- Watching Snowden cut his administration's balls off.
- Watching the Congress do nothing and freeze his agenda.
- Watching the DOJ be legally powerless to do succeed in prosecuting Zimmerman for neutralizing Obama's surrogate son.
I can safely say --- by voting for Obama, I feel like it counted.
I think I failed to communicate the facetiousness here. OBAMA IS APPROPRIATELY GETTING POLITICALLY TORTURED
You are missing me COMPLETELY. Liberal ? How about classical liberal ?
The so called liberal of today is nothing but a socialist control freak along with his clueless police state conservative counterpart. The more federal instruments of oppression are disabled by patriots like Snowden, the less means the utopia freaks will have for hegemony.
My investment club"SHARKS" are some modern day Einsteins.Did you ever hear of
"A motorcycle racer trying to top 300 mph died Sunday after losing control and zooming off a runway at a former air base in northern Maine." - RIP Bill Warner
I hit 200 mph on a hybrid flat track bike in 1979. Only 2 inches of travel in the steering. It took me most of the prior year just to get the steering leaning and contouring down. The suit was way too hot when I came to a stop. At one point you get this weird feeling like you should let go or release your hand or something. You can't, your body is stressing so badly that you can barely adjust to throttling down and even then you struggle to control the bike at all back under say... 40. I dropped three times on the test runs just trying to figure out how to lean turn. There are so many instant calculations and judgments to make at high speed that once you get there you are overwhelmed.
The GOP never helped me but really really really dedicated bike mechanics did.
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These hot movers could rise by double digits in coming months.
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