This star counters the curse of cult stocks
If you can handle some risk, consider this: Tesla's CEO isn't just building great cars. He's building a great stock.
When I say it's a cult stock, don't bet against it, I mean a cult stock is a wily, cunning animal that can't be captured by the normal short-selling hunters, and it can give long-owning thrill-seekers the ride of their lives.
Tesla (TSLA) is the definition of a cult stock. It is the kind of stock that, as a hedge fund manager, I most feared betting against -- and, yes, I notice that our esteemed colleague Doug Kass is doing just that -- because the manager of the stock, Elon Musk, is brilliant not only at building a great car but at building a great stock.
Consider every box he checked in the quarterly statement:
- Higher sales than expected.
- Higher gross margins than expected.
- Raising the forecast of cars to be sold and revenues for 2014.
- Raising gross-margin guidance for 2014 because of economies of scale (think Henry Ford).
- Aggressive expansion in China and Europe -- after the downturn of the latter.
Now consider all the objections Musk answered, including those from the ridiculous ancient "sell" recommendations, like Bank of America Merrill Lynch's $65 target:
- Musk guaranteed the price of the used cars. Now it looks like used cars are maintaining or increasing in value.
- There were worries about the cost of batteries, but we are told to stay tuned because of a major reduction in the cost of battery production.
- Can the batteries be mass-produced? That has been a concern. Now he's talking about a "giga factory" that can make batteries not just for Tesla but for the whole solar industry. Why doubt a guy who has the very successful Solar City (SCTY) sister company?
- Is Tesla really catching on in China? Of course it is, Musk points out, because those stores are the busiest in the chain. Oh, and unlike Starbucks (SBUX), he's not charging more for cars in China than in the U.S.
- Can you really drive across the country, especially in the cold? Darn it all, you bet you can, and Musk has not one but two examples of people who have done it, including a citizen who is unaffiliated with the company!
- No, Tesla will not follow the other car companies into charging "excessive" prices to customers in certain markets because that would be "inconsistent with building long-term loyalty."
- No, Musk won't need more cash because the operating cash flow is positive, so there's no new equity offering for shorts to cover with in the immediate future.
And, of course, Musk uses every single question in the conference call to drive home these points again and again -- brilliant stage management of the call, just like the brilliant writing in the release. What can I say? This release is a virtual parody of what a long owner wants to hear -- and an actual nightmare for short sellers.
Does that mean the stock doesn't spike up and then come down so shorts can battle with it before going higher? Sure. On a day basis, but that's the case with any volatile stock.
I take a lot of heat because I call Tesla, Solar City, Twitter (TWTR), Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) "cult stocks." That's because I'm not coming out and saying you should buy or sell them. That's a total misread.
What I am saying is this: If you can handle the pain and heartache that could come from owning them, then by all means own them -- preferably through calls, because if they screw up, cult stocks can plunge well beyond where you thought possible.
I arrived at this analysis because I traded through the 1999-2000 period and saw the damage cult stocks can do to short-sellers and the profits they could make for the longs. I don't condemn stocks, and I don't condemn managers who know how to "run" them. I condemn illegality, and there is none here. I criticize stupidity and arrogance, as have been the case with several other tech stocks over the years.
But Tesla? My hat is off to Elon Musk. He has made a study of cars. He has made a study of growth stocks. And he knows how to make both better than anyone I have ever seen in history.
Jim Cramer's Action Alerts Plus: Check out this charitable trust portfolio and uncover the stocks Cramer thinks could be winners. The portfolio has no positions in the stocks mentioned.
More from TheStreet
- Cramer: Where the bargains are
- Why Chinese stocks look like bargains
- Facebook's WhatsApp purchase could mean higher prices for IPOs
"There will be consequences if people step over the line," Obama said
He'll put his rapper on your azz.
Remember slot cars? They were electric. Too small for people, but they were fun.
Maybe that Obama rap bro can make an angry one up about the Ukraine problem.
Call it "Shootin Putin"
If there are any traders out there trading the Forex I wanted to warn you don't waste your time I've been trying to make money with it for years! Go to the website Bionic Traders and get into trading the futures instead it's much better now I'm making money trading and very happy.
Never did see the code of conduct. I don't think we have moderators anymore, just the software to asterisk out bad words. Strange, huh? MSN doesn't care what goes on here.
Women's skiing Half Pipe....American Gold; Great Job...And Remember Sarah.
Final W.....skate coming up...
Well at the closing bell, we fought them off...Thought we had a solid 100+, but oh well...
We will take what we can get and like it...
Code of Conduct ??, Code of Conduct, we don't need no stinkin' code of conduct.
The First Amendment Forever....!!
Waterman...Yeah caught the drilling intercepts on the veins...Can't remember now if it was in China or somewhere else ??
Hoping it plays out..and pay outs...
Maybe should have sold SVM around $3.30 about a week or so..? When it ran..
I don't like messing around with stocks under $10 bucks, too many "beat down" players.
Some Gold and Silver miners, up 4 and 5%+ plus today....woooohoooo.
Yup was gonna mention that a few minutes back...Congratulations to the Canadian Women's Hockey team...Gold for Canada and Silver for the U.S Women....
Hell of a battle in just a little over 3 minutes of last period Can. Women scored two goals to tie it, Canucks pulled it off 3-2 final in overtime...
Womens iceskate finals coming up...China, Russia (not who you think) and Americans have a shot at probably Bronze, maybe Silver???
Bode out and gone...Giggety pulled off ski combine or slalom for Gold...His real name Liggety..
or something like that,.... Americans in or near top with Medals count..
Copyright © 2014 Microsoft. All rights reserved.
Tighter regulations and the end of a lengthy bull market in bonds have changed the landscape forever.
VIDEO ON MSN MONEY
Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.
Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.
Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.