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I would expect that to be the story for the third quarter result as well, because of little North American volume and because, though management sees a stronger second half result when a normal-sized North American crop comes in, the bulk of the harvest could possibly be late. That crop should put investor emphasis on the 2014 earnings for a normal year of higher operating rates and lower crop prices leading to high margins as well.
I believe that one reason may be investor fears of an early frost because this year’s planting was completed late in the season; it was the latest planting completion since 1984. My understanding is that there is no specific close relationship, and that temperature and sunlight in the growing season can be more important.
I believe that the stock price could start to rally within the next six to seven weeks as the fear of early frost diminishes. Another factor may be just skepticism that capital expenditure will truly be cut, longer term.
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